基于DCF/Options矩阵评价模型的投资项目可行性分析

在进行项目投资时,企业往往面临投资的不可逆性,未来回报的不确定性,投资的杠杆效应和延迟性。在使用传统的分析方法对项目可行性进行评价时,往往会造成项目评价的片面性。主要分析了传统方法的缺点和决策者风险偏好对净现值评价方法的影响,并将实物期权理论引入项目决策,最后将DCF与Options 2种分析方法结合,构建一种新的项目评价方法——矩阵分析法,从而为决策的制定提供更为准确的信息。     

NPV方法中的不确定性及其度量

项目评价最常用的指标为净现值,而现金流发生的时间以及大小都具有不确定性,传统的净现值方法无法体现这些不确定性。将这些不确定性划分为三类,并从这三个方面入手,对传统的NPV法进行改进。     

The role of free economic zones in global supply chains—a case of reverselogistics

Schengen border crossings are moving from former European borders southeastwards. These changes influence some socioeconomic positions of regions and availability of human resources in the nodes of global supply chains. Free Economic Zone (FEZ) has been considered as a tool to make the flow of goods and the flow of human resources less exposed to risk. Considering the production function in activity cells of a global supply chain, the perturbations of NPV of activities in total chain are expressed in cases, where the availability of human resources and perturbations of lead time takes place, both of which are the result of activities at border crossings. The extended MRP approach with an extension to distribution and reverse logistic part of a supply chain is used to develop the model for evaluating the influence of the lead-time perturbations and perturbations in availability of properly skilled human resources in different regions separated by Schengen borders. Tax exemption in an FEZ is presented as a compensation for the negative impact of Schengen border on the net present value of a global supply chain and consequently as the compensation for shortages and costs of properly skilled workers. The paper gives answer to the question, what is the level of reduction of tax burden in the FEZ of accession countries, which is only a compensation for the higher labour costs, additional administrative costs and the cost of risks assumed at border crossings. We have explained why we are not able to talk about an unfair competition of producers in an FEZ’s atall.     

笋用毛竹林“春笋早出”覆盖经营技术的经济效益分析

基于笋用毛竹林科技示范户种植地块投入产出记录数据,对笋用毛竹林"春笋早出"覆盖经营的投入产出及经济效益进行了评价,对其经济效益的敏感性进行了分析。研究结果表明:⑴与普通经营毛竹林相比,笋用毛竹林覆盖经营的要素投入与竹笋产出均很高,属于高度集约经营,而且投入与产出结构也有明显差异;⑵在当前市场条件下,采用"春笋早出"覆盖经营技术的笋用毛竹林,其成林后年均净收益达3.4万元/hm2,60年经营周期林地净现值(NPV)达36.9万元/hm2;⑶笋用毛竹林覆盖经营经济收益对冬笋价格、覆盖物价格、劳动力价格及贴现率变动非常敏感,在劳动力与覆盖物成本不断上涨的背景下,未来笋用毛竹林覆盖经营的经营效益如何,仍然具有一定的不确定性。因此,应该进一步加强对笋用毛竹林"春笋早出"覆盖经营技术的研究与示范;在制定产业发展政策时,要充分考虑市场环境变化可能带来的影响与风险;应加强对笋用毛竹林地生态效应的评估与监测。     

净现值与内部收益率在投资决策中的选用

净现值和内部收益率是投资决策中最常用的两个主要指标,但是,通过深入分析我们发现,后者在满足净效益最大化决策目标、假设条件的经济合理性以及普遍适用性三个方面均存在严重缺陷,因而不是一个可靠的项目价值衡量指标,最多只能用作决策的参考,不能用作项目取舍的依据。     

Preliminary Exploration into NPV and IRR

In terms of the disagreement and dispute [1][2][3] about the economic meaning, the prerequisite assumption and the application of NPV and IRR, Dr. Tinggan Yang tried to re-understand them in his doctor degree dissertation Research on Methods of Projects Statistic Decision and his monograph Research on Quantification Methods of Investment Decisions based on his dissertation. However, there exist some problems in the two papers. So in this paper the authors try to address them and hope to get the right understanding of the two indices NPV and IRR.     

The Theory-Practice Gap in Capital Budgeting: Evidence from the United Kingdom

We report the results of a survey of capital budgeting techniques used by United Kingdom firms. Where possible, the evidence is combined with data collected over a 22 year period to provide a basis for the discussion of causes of trends. We observe that there has been a substantial narrowing of the theory-practice gap in the use of project appraisal methods. The gap has also narrowed in other areas: the analysis of risk, inflation adjustment, capital budget preparation, WACC calculation and post-auditing. However, there are other elements of capital budgeting theory, e.g. probability and beta analysis which have been adopted by very few practising managers. We also discuss non-economic projects, capital rationing and hurdle rates.     

Economic analysis of the production of ready-to-eat ‘Gbegiri'' bean mix powder

Economic evaluation of the industrial production of Gbegiri bean soup mix was conducted using the NPV (net present value) and IRR (internal rate of return) methods. A uniform cash flow over a 10-year plant life with zero salvage value was assumed. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by varying the number of production days (330, 250 and 150 days) at 100% plant capacity and varying the plant capacity (100, 85 and 70%) for a 330-day production schedule. Some components of the operating cost reduced as the number of production days or the plant capacity were reduced. The production cost and product cost per unit increased with reduction in either the plant capacity utilisation or the number of days. The economic performance of the plant when operated for 150 days was not attractive. The results indicated that the plant should not be operated for less than 250 days in the year. Flexibility in the plant capacity utilisation in the range 70–100% yields a good economic performance.     

Scenario选择决策及其在物流管理中的应用

提出了一个新的基于Ｓｃｅｎａｒｉｏ模型的选择选择决策方法，在此基础上，进一步讨论了它在物流调备采购决重和付款折扣谈判决策过程中的应用。     

Strategic investment analysis for migration beyond 3G wireless networks

This paper analyzes investment alternatives for cellular operators who deploy either universal mobile telecommunications systems (UMTS) with high speed data packet access (HSDPA) networks or UMTS with Wi-Fi networks, for moving beyond 3G-networks. The evaluated business scenarios focus on two different deployment alternatives: UMTS with HSDPA and UMTS integrated with Wi-Fi. HSDPA deployment targets the overlay on the existing UMTS cells, whereas Wi-Fi covers only indoor hot spot areas where data demand is high. Capital investments and operational costs as well as revenue streams have been analyzed for the two types of network architectures. Techno-economic methodologies have been applied for this study and results are derived that are presented and discussed for two types of wireless networks.