Dismantling terrorist networks: Evaluating strategic options using agent-based modeling

Dismantling dark networks remains a critical goal for the peace and security of our society. Terrorist networks are the most prominent instantiation of dark networks, and they are alive and well. Attempts to preemptively disrupt these networks and their activities have met with both success and failure. In this paper, we examine the impacts of four common strategies for dismantling terrorist networks. The four strategies are: leader-focused, grassroots, geographic, and random. Each of these strategies has associated pros and cons, and each has different impacts on the structure and capabilities of a terrorist network. Employing a computational experimentation methodology, we simulate a terrorist network and test the effects of each strategy on the resiliency of that network. In addition, we test scenarios in which the terrorist network has (or does not have) information about an impending attack. Our work takes a structural perspective to the challenge of addressing terrorist networks. Specifically, we show how various strategies impact the structure of the network in terms of its resiliency and capacity to carry out future attacks. This paper also provides a valuable overview of how to use agent-based modeling for the study of complex problems in the terrorism, conflict studies, and security study domains.     

网络视角下中国各地区创新过程效率研究:基于我国八大经济区的比较

创新效率问题是学术界关注的焦点.本文从解剖创新过程中的要素流动机理出发,揭示了创新过程的网络化特征,并通过构建网络DEA模型,测算了创新过程整体效率、"创新资源转换"效率与"创新知识转化"效率.以我国八大经济区为研究对象发现:"创新资源转换"与"创新知识转化"效率的主要影响因素不同,前者受到R&D人员区域分布结构影响,后者受到各地区经济发展水平差异的影响;区域创新过程整体效率与"创新知识转化"效率高度相关;区域创新整体效率与"创新知识转化"效率在样本期间稳步上升;整体效率与"创新知识转化"效率出现地区追赶的收敛现象,"创新资源转换"阶段是整体效率发散的隐患.     

学术印记、网络惯例与大学衍生企业产业嵌入

在大学衍生企业创业实践中,与产业主体间缺乏合作默契已成为大学衍生企业向产业网络嵌入的重要阻滞因素。针对该问题,基于网络惯例新视角,从大学衍生企业学术创生背景带来的异质性入手,构建“学术印记—网络惯例—产业网络嵌入”作用模型,探索技术动荡性的调节效应。运用多元回归分析等方法,对379家大学衍生企业调研数据进行实证检验。结果表明,大学衍生企业学术印记对网络惯例建立具有积极促进作用。同时,在向产业嵌入过程中,网络惯例对产业网络嵌入两个维度的作用机制存在差异,与结构嵌入存在倒U型关系,但正向促进关系嵌入。技术动荡性在“学术印记—网络惯例—产业网络关系嵌入”关系中具有正向调节作用。     

创业乐观中介下社会网络对新创企业绩效的影响

社会网络不仅能够带来物质等方面的硬性支持,同时也能够带来情感、心理、认知等方面的软性支持,然而这种软性支持并未引起学者们的足够重视。旨在探讨社会网络与新创企业绩效关系及其作用机制,构建了包括社会网络、创业乐观、新创企业绩效、创业环境和创业经验在内的理论模型,以142名新创企业者为研究样本,使用SPSS、AMOS等统计软件对数据进行统计分析。结果表明,社会网络对新创企业绩效有显著正向影响,社会网络对创业乐观有显著正向影响,创业乐观对新创企业绩效有显著正向影响,创业乐观在社会网络与新创企业绩效关系间起部分中介作用,创业环境在社会网络与创业乐观关系间以及在创业乐观与新创企业绩效关系间起正向调节作用。     

消费者群体隐性需求濡染扩散模式研究

在进行营销模式的本土化创新以及开创新的市场空间时，关注创新采用的隐性需求及其在关联需求网络中的扩散机制，对于洞察消费者隐性需求的层次，细分消费者的群体特征以及进行产品和市场创新均具有重要意义。     

企业家社会资本的测量及其对企业绩效的影响——基于新兴第三产业上市公司的实证研究

本文从纵向关系网络、横向关系网络和社会关系网络三个维度界定了企业家社会资本。基于100家新兴第三产业上市公司的实证研究发现,企业家社会资本对企业绩效存在显著影响,横向关系网络和社会关系网络能显著提升企业绩效;特别的发现是企业家的纵向关系网络（政府关系）的提升会降低企业绩效。研究结果还表明,非国有企业仍然处于劣势地位,地域差异显著影响着企业绩效,企业家年龄和学历越高对企业的贡献越大。本研究还创新性地发现,企业上市年限过长不利于企业绩效的增长。     

浅谈网络融资业务在我国的发展与监管

网络融资业务是网络金融(e-finance)创新的一个典型实例,指建立在网络中介服务基础上的企业与银行等金融机构之间的借贷活动。本文详细分析了我国网络融资业务的主要模式、积极意义与发展思路,对业务的潜在风险进行了探讨,在此基础之上,从功能性监管的角度,对该业务的监管提出了相关建议。     

机制设计视角的O2O模式科学性分析

O2O模式的升级与转型是目前电商行业的热点问题。运用机制设计理论,分析O2O不同经营类型的科学性,验证不同O2O类型与盈利模式间的关系。理论分析发现:相对于独立型与复合型团购,平台型团购能够较好地处理传统营销中买卖双方的信用关系,具有机制设计上的优势性。实证分析显示:平台型团购的盈利模式侧重于新型的增值业务收入,独立型与复合型团购侧重于商品的进销差价等传统盈利模式,消费者投诉绝大部分集中在独立型与复合型团购。     

应用数据挖掘技术识别财务报表舞弊的方法研究

如何识别财务报表舞弊成为国内外学者普遍关注的问题。基于传统识别技术的诸多固有缺陷,近年来数据挖掘技术应用到识别财务报表舞弊领域成为发展趋势。数据挖掘技术包括统计方法、人工神经网络和其他数据挖掘技术。文章不仅对各种识别模型和技术进行了归纳,而且比较分析了各种模型和方法的优缺点、判别正确率以及适用条件,为下一步实施实证研究提供支持。     

Economic progress and skill obsolescence with network effects

Summary. We construct an OLG model with network effects to examine skill obsolescence when individuals can choose technological vintages. In the absence of transfer payments, some regions of the parameter space have unique stationary equilibria, others have unique cyclical equilibria, and others have multiple stationary equilibria. All equilibria are Pareto efficient. However, rat race equilibria can exist in which all agents currently alive prefer a slower rate of progress than occurs in equilibrium. When contemporaneous transfers are allowed, equilibria are unique everywhere, but a cycle still exists, and a rat race can still arise in equilibrium. Allowing intertemporal transfers (debt) ensures that all equilibria are stationary. In the relevant parameter range, the introduction of debt can eliminate cycles and increase the long-run growth rate. No rat race equilibria exist when debt is allowed.Received: 3 January 2002, Revised: 3 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: 041, J24, O33. Correspondence to: Ian P. KingEarly versions of this paper were presented at the West Coast Macro Workshop, the Mid-West Macro Meetings, the Canadian Macroeconomics Study Group Meetings, and the Society for Economic Dynamics Meetings. We would like to thank V. V. Chari, Merwan Engineer, Don Ferguson, John Hillas, John Knowles, Dan Peled, Dan Usher, Linda Welling and Julian Wright for helpful comments. We are especially grateful to an anonymous referee for some very useful and substantive comments.