服务贸易出口对我国经济增长影响的实证研究

利用1982～2011年的数据进行实证分析,从短期和长期两个角度入手,着重讨论了服务贸易出口对中国经济增长的贡献。短期内,通过构建拉动度和贡献度两个函数可知服务贸易出口对国内经济增长具有拉动作用;长期内,进一步运用Granger因果检验和0LS回归分析的方法得出结论,服务贸易出口是国内经济增长的Granger原因且能显著的拉动中国经济增长,但国内经济增长不构成服务贸易出口的Granger原因。     

Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say

This paper attempts to provide a logical overview of the literature which exploits survey data to examine issues of expectations formation and risk aversion in financial markets. Our survey suggests that: short term expectations are excessively volatile and exhibit bandwagon effects, while longer term expectations appear to be regressive and therefore stabilising; in bond and foreign exchange markets the standard result of forward rate biasedness is due in part to time-varying premia; recent research using disaggregate foreign exchange survey data demonstrates the importance of heterogeneous expectations.     

Optimal versus orthogonal and equivalent-estimation design of blocked and split-plot experiments

This article provides an overview of the recent literature on the design of blocked and split-plot experiments with quantitative experimental variables. A detailed literature study introduces the ongoing debate between an optimal design approach to constructing blocked and split-plot designs and approaches where the equivalence of ordinary least squares and generalized least squares estimates are envisaged. Examples where the competing design strategies lead to totally different designs are given, as well as examples in which the optimal experimental designs are orthogonally blocked or equivalent-estimation split-plot designs.     

Technology spillover effects within Spanish communities

The article uses panel data for the period 1990–2010 to estimate technology spillover effects on 17 Spanish communities. Accounting for nonstationarity and cointegration, we use the dynamic OLS estimator to estimate the impact of domestic and non-domestic R&;D capital stock on labour productivity of Spanish communities, taking into account trade-, migration- and foreign direct investment (FDI)-related technology diffusion channels. We find significant trade-related spillover effects within Spanish communities and from EU countries. On average, an increase in the non-domestic R&;D stock of 1% increases their labour productivity between 0.02% and 0.12% if related to bilateral trade pattern. Moreover, migration within Spanish communities has a negative impact ranging between ?0.07% and ?0.16% on labour productivity as the impact of inward migration is dominated by outward migration. There is no robust impact from FDI inflows of OECD countries in general or EU countries in particular. Finally, the domestic R&;D stock, physical capital and human capital are shown to be significant drivers for labour productivity in Spain no matter if non-domestic (local or foreign) spillover effects are trade-, migration- or FDI-related.     

Capital structure in an emerging stock market: The case of India

This paper applies two alternative methods of estimation, viz., fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM), to analyse the determinants of the capital structure of Indian firms using a panel of 1169 non-financial firms listed in either the Bombay Stock Exchange or the National Stock Exchange over the period 1995-2008. The results thus obtained are robust across the estimation methods. Among the three alternative theories of capital structure, the pecking order theory and the static trade-off theory both seem to explain Indian firms’ decisions. However, there is little evidence to support the agency cost theory.     

Goodwill under IFRS: Relevance and disclosures in an unfavorable environment

The accounting treatment of purchased goodwill under IFRS has been severely criticized due to the extensive use of fair value accounting. The purpose of this study is to enrich the ongoing debate upon this issue by drawing attention to the market valuation implications of goodwill in a country outside the Anglo-Saxon accounting paradigm, where the application of fair value accounting has been seen as more problematic. The results indicate that, in the case of purchased goodwill, fair value accounting generates relevant accounting numbers but only in companies that comply highly with IFRS disclosure requirements.     

融资融券对沪市波动性和流动性影响实证分析——基于OLS模型和格兰杰因果检验

对上证180指数、沪市融资、融券交易数据样本进行了研究,通过最小二乘回归(OLS)模型建立沪市波动性、流动性与融资融券的关系,通过格兰杰因果检验对回归结果进行验证。实证结果表明:融资融券交易对沪市的波动性和流动性都具有正向影响,结合实证结论给出投资者在股市不同表现下的投资建议。     

基于商品技术分类的我国贸易条件的测算与影响因素研究

本文以1981-2011年主要进出口商品数量与金额数据为基础,分别对我国总贸易条件及基于Lall(2000)分类法为依据的分类商品的贸易条件进行计算,并对贸易条件的各影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,一国的经济水平、FDI、劳动生产率及高技术产品出口的比重对贸易条件有显著影响。经济水平的提升、实际利用的FDI的增加是贸易条件改善的主要因素;就目前我国技术水平来说,劳动生产率的提高,高技术产品出口比重的加大并不能引起我国贸易条件的改善。     

中国对外FDI规模与宏观经济变量的实证研究

随着我国经济的快速发展和对外开放程度的提高,中国的对外直接投资正风起云涌。尽管如此,但它仍然处于起步阶段,对我国宏观经济的促进作用未能得到充分发挥。本文选取1982～2006年宏观经济数据,通过对中国对外直接投资和宏观经济变量进行计量检验和最小二乘回归估计证实了这一结论。     

上市公司最优股权结构的动态调整 ——基于调整成本的创新视角

利用1999—2017年的350家中国上市公司的面板数据检验最优股权结构的动态调整过程。在委托代理理论的基础上,采用非线性最小二乘法模型,基于调整成本的创新视角,证明最优股权结构的存在。实证结果显示,因为调整成本的存在,实际股权结构并不等于最优股权结构,并且实际股权结构处于一个不断向最优股权结构调整的动态过程。股权结构的调整速度会受到来自公司规模、信息不对称和偏离最优水平的程度等因素的影响,调整速度会因为时间、行业和公司规模的不同而存在差异。