Capital structure in an emerging stock market: The case of India

This paper applies two alternative methods of estimation, viz., fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM), to analyse the determinants of the capital structure of Indian firms using a panel of 1169 non-financial firms listed in either the Bombay Stock Exchange or the National Stock Exchange over the period 1995-2008. The results thus obtained are robust across the estimation methods. Among the three alternative theories of capital structure, the pecking order theory and the static trade-off theory both seem to explain Indian firms’ decisions. However, there is little evidence to support the agency cost theory.     

Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say

This paper attempts to provide a logical overview of the literature which exploits survey data to examine issues of expectations formation and risk aversion in financial markets. Our survey suggests that: short term expectations are excessively volatile and exhibit bandwagon effects, while longer term expectations appear to be regressive and therefore stabilising; in bond and foreign exchange markets the standard result of forward rate biasedness is due in part to time-varying premia; recent research using disaggregate foreign exchange survey data demonstrates the importance of heterogeneous expectations.     

基于空间相关性的人力资本模型估计

未考虑样本个体间相关性的人力资本模型高估了教育收益率。基于CLDS 2012的微观调查数据,引入经济地理学中的空间相关性,采用空间人力资本模型考察了引入空间相关性对非线性人力资本模型的影响作用。研究结果表明:（1）引入空间相关性的教育收益率虽仍然较高,但受个体所处环境影响较强,较未考虑空间相关性时的教育收益率有所降低;（2）个人工作经验、性别、家庭背景以及个人工作能力等个体特性受所处环境的影响较弱;（3）人力资本市场仍然存在相当程度的性别歧视。因此,需要改善教育培养方式,减小就业环境对毕业生收益率的冲击;需要有效提升代际收入流动性,破除社会阶层的进一步固化;需要继续完善性别平等制度体系,进一步释放市场潜能。     

Optimal versus orthogonal and equivalent-estimation design of blocked and split-plot experiments

This article provides an overview of the recent literature on the design of blocked and split-plot experiments with quantitative experimental variables. A detailed literature study introduces the ongoing debate between an optimal design approach to constructing blocked and split-plot designs and approaches where the equivalence of ordinary least squares and generalized least squares estimates are envisaged. Examples where the competing design strategies lead to totally different designs are given, as well as examples in which the optimal experimental designs are orthogonally blocked or equivalent-estimation split-plot designs.     

Risk premium,macroeconomic shocks,and information technology: an empirical analysis

This study empirically identifies the impact of various macroeconomic factors on the default risk premium. Using monthly data for the period 1970–2010 for the US, our estimations indicate that the monetary policy aggregates, risk-free interest rate, term structure of interest rates, inflation, and the state of the business cycle influence the risk premium. The results also provide some evidence in support of the hypothesis that the development of information technology has had a decreasing impact on the risk premium. As expected, various financial crises have had substantial and long-lasting effects on the premium. The results suggest that the direct impact of the subprime crisis and Lehman’s collapse on the risk premium was as large as two and a half percentage-points for a sustainable period. Foreign financial crises, in turn, have lowered the risk premium in the US market, suggesting a flight-to-safety phenomenon.     

上市公司最优股权结构的动态调整——基于调整成本的创新视角

利用1999—2017年的350家中国上市公司的面板数据检验最优股权结构的动态调整过程。在委托代理理论的基础上,采用非线性最小二乘法模型,基于调整成本的创新视角,证明最优股权结构的存在。实证结果显示,因为调整成本的存在,实际股权结构并不等于最优股权结构,并且实际股权结构处于一个不断向最优股权结构调整的动态过程。股权结构的调整速度会受到来自公司规模、信息不对称和偏离最优水平的程度等因素的影响,调整速度会因为时间、行业和公司规模的不同而存在差异。     

基于商品技术分类的我国贸易条件的测算与影响因素研究

本文以1981-2011年主要进出口商品数量与金额数据为基础,分别对我国总贸易条件及基于Lall(2000)分类法为依据的分类商品的贸易条件进行计算,并对贸易条件的各影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,一国的经济水平、FDI、劳动生产率及高技术产品出口的比重对贸易条件有显著影响。经济水平的提升、实际利用的FDI的增加是贸易条件改善的主要因素;就目前我国技术水平来说,劳动生产率的提高,高技术产品出口比重的加大并不能引起我国贸易条件的改善。     

Goodwill under IFRS: Relevance and disclosures in an unfavorable environment

The accounting treatment of purchased goodwill under IFRS has been severely criticized due to the extensive use of fair value accounting. The purpose of this study is to enrich the ongoing debate upon this issue by drawing attention to the market valuation implications of goodwill in a country outside the Anglo-Saxon accounting paradigm, where the application of fair value accounting has been seen as more problematic. The results indicate that, in the case of purchased goodwill, fair value accounting generates relevant accounting numbers but only in companies that comply highly with IFRS disclosure requirements.