An application of the generalized Poisson difference distribution to the Bayesian modelling of football scores

The analysis of sports data, in particular football match outcomes, has always produced an immense interest among the statisticians. In this paper, we adopt the generalized Poisson difference distribution (GPDD) to model the goal difference of football matches. We discuss the advantages of the proposed model over the Poisson difference (PD) model, which was also used for the same purpose. The GPDD model, like the PD model, is based on the goal difference in each game that allows us to account for the correlation without explicitly modelling it. The main advantage of the GPDD model is its flexibility in the tails by considering shorter as well as longer tails than the PD distribution. We carry out the analysis in a Bayesian framework in order to incorporate external information, such as historical knowledge or data, through the prior distributions. We model both the mean and the variance of the goal difference and show that such a model performs considerably better than a model with a fixed variance. Finally, the proposed model is fitted to the 2012–2013 Italian Serie A football data, and various model diagnostics are carried out to evaluate the performance of the model.     

浅谈高职院校文艺类“高等数学”教学改革

针对目前高职院校高等数学的教学现状,结合国家示范高职课程改革的需要,借助张景中院士开发的"Z+Z"数学教学软件,阐述了高职院校文艺类学生进行高等数学教育的必要性,就如何及时转变教学理念、改变教育方法、以及如何因地制宜降低教学要求,加强高等数学教材的建设等方面进行了深入分析,并且提出了一个新的数学教学模式。     

《旅游法规》教学方法探析

旅游法规课程对中职导游专业的学生有较大的学习难度,往往成为学生通过导游人员资格考试的"拦路虎"。本文探究了几种行之有效的教学方法:案例教学法、背诵教学法、理论联系实际教学法,以提高学生的学习兴趣。     

不同加载方式下岩石力学特性及能量演化规律

本文以东荣二矿南二下采区16煤层五工作面回风下山巷道围岩为研究对象,进行了不同加载方式的岩石力学试验,分析岩石在加载过程中力学特性和能量演化规律.为巷道围岩能量分布、变形破坏机理及巷道围岩稳定性控制研究提供基础数据.     

构建《计量会计学》的设想

通过对计量经济学及其他计量学科发展的分析,探讨了建立计量会计学的相应条件及相关概念。明确了计量会计学的客观基础、方法、内容,并对计量会计学体系的构建进行初探。     

经济学视角:后进先出法与先进先出法

作为一种沿用多年的发出存货计价方法,后进先出法曾经被视为先进先出法缺陷的完美补充。近年来,包括我国在内的各国会计准则又先后将其舍弃,其中的原因是什么?文章拟从经济学视角,对其进行探讨,以求得出有说服力的解释。     

公路桥梁支座更换方法

文章结合在不中断交通情况下某大桥支座更换工程所采用的施工方案、施工方法和措施,总结一套可广泛应用的桥梁支座更换方法,保证桥梁支座在不中断交通情况下更换的安全性和质量。     

退休计划中养老年金购买决策的建模与分析

随着人类寿命的不断延长,社会个体面临越来越大的长寿风险,养老年金是规避长寿风险的有效工具。本文讨论个体退休计划中有关养老年金购买的重要决策问题,构建了一个能规避长寿风险的多期消费与投资决策模型框架,该框架把最优年金购买决策和传统的消费与投资选择问题有机地结合起来,以求达到规避长寿风险并获得消费和遗产的最大效用的双重目的。本文最后展示了特定参数设置下的计算结果以说明特定的社会个体应该如何构建能规避长寿风险的消费和投资策略,并分析了寿命的不确定性等因素对个体年金计划的影响。     

Simplified Jackknife Variance Estimates for Fuzzy Measures of Multidimensional Poverty

In this paper, we present a practical methodology for variance estimation for multi‐dimensional measures of poverty and deprivation of households and individuals, derived from sample surveys with complex designs and fairly large sample sizes. The measures considered are based on fuzzy representation of individuals' propensity to deprivation in monetary and diverse non‐monetary dimensions. We believe this to be the first original contribution for estimating standard errors for such fuzzy poverty measures. The second objective is to describe and numerically illustrate computational procedures and difficulties in producing reliable and robust estimates of sampling error for such complex statistics. We attempt to identify some of these problems and provide solutions in the context of actual situations. A detailed application based on European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data for 19 NUTS2 regions in Spain is provided.     

加强施工机械设备管理

为了进一步提高劳动生产率、提高企业经济效益,根据施工单位机械设备数量不足、严重老化、技术性和配套性落后等问题,进行分析和探讨解决的方法及措施。