黑龙江省农村金融制度现状及其问题分析

随着农村金融体制改革的深入,黑龙江省农村金融发生了可喜的变化。但也存在一些突出的问题,如直接融资占融资结构的比重偏低、金融服务体系不健全、农村金融抑制等。导致黑龙江省农村金融效率低下、农村金融资源配置的帕累托条件缺失的根本原因在于农村金融制度有效供给不足,以及制度结构不够协调。     

Another Graphical Proof of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem

Arrow's (1951) Impossibility Theorem is the idea that, given several well-known assumptions, the social orderings of particular alternatives that are meant to reflect individuals' preferences must match the preferences of an arbitrary individual (the dictator). A social-choice rule other than dictatorship is impossible. Following from Fountain (2000), the author presents another graphical proof of the theorem that is intended to be more accessible to students and teachers of economics. The principal strength of this approach is that the patterns of agreements and conflicts over all possible combinations of two individuals' rankings of alternatives are transparent; appreciating these patterns is the key to intuitively understanding Arrow's theorem. A self-test for readers (or a classroom exercise for students) is included.     

A Generic Framework for Automated Multi-attribute Negotiation

Agents in a negotiation may have to negotiate multiple issues simultaneously. Automated multi-attribute negotiation provides an important mechanism for distributed decision makers to reach agreements on multiple issues. Moreover, it also furnishes the opportunity to reach “win–win” solutions. In this paper, we first provide a survey that synthesizes the research on multi-attribute negotiation. We discuss the limitations of the existing research and conclude that three key issues need further study: incomplete information, Pareto optimality, and tractability. We then present a generic framework for automated multi-attribute negotiation with two new mechanisms that address the above issues. Finally, we discuss the challenges and directions for future work.     

Partition ratios, Pareto optimal cake division, and related notions

We consider the problem of partitioning a ‘cake' C among n players. Various criteria have been considered for deciding whether a partition P₁,P₂,…,P_n of C, where piece P_i goes to player i, is a ‘good' partition. See, for example, Barbanel (1996) [Barbanel, J.B., 1996. Super envy-free cake division and independence of measures. J. Math. Anal. Appl. 197, 54–60] or Brams and Taylor (1996) [Brams, S.J., Taylor, A.D., 1996. Fair Division: From Cake-Cutting To Dispute Resolution. Cambridge Univ. Press]. In this paper we study certain real numbers (the ‘partition ratios' of this paper's Section 2) which can be associated in a natural way with any partition. We show that various types of products of these numbers provide us with useful information about certain trades and transfers between players.     

PARETO HONOURING POVERTY REDUCTION

Policy reforms often pit the poor against the poor by triggering a fall in poverty for some but an increase in poverty for others. Aggregated national measures gloss over these fine patterns and pronounce ‘a reduction in poverty’– is such aggregation across poor individuals ethically permissible? Addressing this type of aggregation is a hard issue. This paper has made an attempt in that direction by outlining an axiomatically grounded aggregate measure of such gains or losses, duly giving more importance to the losses to a poor compared to the gains of another poor.     

Active intermediation in a monetary overlapping generations economy

This paper establishes that the profit-seeking activities of private intermediaries can ensure Pareto efficiency in the standard pure-exchange monetary overlapping generations economy without the need for government monetary or fiscal policy intervention. Moreover, these profit-seeking activities are shown to rule out all aperiodic and k-periodic cycles for k greater than 2. Contrary to much recent work on intermediation, the profit opportunities that arise for intermediaries in this context are not due to assumed frictions or asymmetric information. Rather, they are due to the dynamic open-ended structure of the economy, which permits debt roll-over.     

Optimality of balanced designs for minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation of variance components

This paper develops an approximate theory for the optimality of balanced designs under minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation of variance components in one-way classified data.     

Design-Based Properties of Linear Calibrated Estimators of a Finite Population Total

We extend Godambe's famous nonexistence theorem to classes of linear calibrated estimators. We also propose a new method for comparing sampling strategies in the design‐based framework without recourse to simulation.     

对外贸易摩擦的实证分析

从我国改革开放以来,对外贸易的发展取得了举世瞩目的成就。但随着贸易量的扩大,贸易摩擦逐渐成为困扰我们的"心结"。纵观这个过程,不难发现摩擦的发展其实是符合客观事物的发展规律的。我们可以"顺势而为",只要是"适者","得道"是自然。     

The role of lifetime activity cues in customer base analysis

This paper develops the notion of lifetime activity cues in customer base analysis. The authors first discuss the impact of lifetime indicators, such as customers' conceptual response to marketing activities, and then demonstrate how such lifetime cues can be embedded into the Pareto/NBD model. The authors theoretically analyze the implication of this additional behavioral indication on the model's predictions. In an illustrative example, they aim to establish an intuitive understanding of the effects of such information. Evidence from the cellular phone industry supports the relevance of this concept: The empirical study finds a substantial improvement in predictive accuracy in two independent holdout samples. The study concludes with a discussion of the managerial relevance of the proposed approach and opportunities for further research.