De skandinaviske Aktuarforeningers Virksomhed i 1925

Abstract

Statistical extreme value theory provides a flexible and theoretically well motivated approach to the study of large losses in insurance. We give a brief review of the modem version of this theory and a “step by step” example of how to use it in large claims insurance. The discussion is based on a detailed investigation of a wind storm insurance problem. New results include a simulation study of estimators in the peaks over thresholds method with Generalised Pareto excesses, a discussion of Pareto and lognormal modelling and of methods to detect trends. Further results concern the use of meteorological information in the wind storm insurance and, of course, the results of the study of the wind storm claims.     

Locally minimax test of independence in elliptically symmetrical distributions with additional observations

Summary LetX=(X _ij )=(X ₁, ...,X _n )’,X’ _i =(X _i1, ...,X _ip )’,i=1,2, ...,n be a matrix having a multivariate elliptical distribution depending on a convex functionq with parameters, 0,σ. Let ϱ²=ϱ ₂ ^-2 be the squared multiple correlation coefficient between the first and the remainingp ₂+p ₃=p−1 components of eachX _i . We have considered here the problem of testingH ₀:ϱ²=0 against the alternativesH ₁:ϱ ₁ ^-2 =0, ϱ ₂ ^-2 >0 on the basis ofX andn ₁ additional observationsY ₁ (n ₁×1) on the first component,n ₂ observationsY ₂(n ₂×p ₂) on the followingp ₂ components andn ₃ additional observationsY ₃(n ₃×p ₃) on the lastp ₃ components and we have derived here the locally minimax test ofH ₀ againstH ₁ when ϱ ₂ ^-2 →0 for a givenq. This test, in general, depends on the choice ofq of the familyQ of elliptically symmetrical distributions and it is not optimality robust forQ.     

Optimality properties of alternative systems of taxation of foreign capital income

Foreign source capital income taxes are examined from the point of view of optimal taxation. In the framework of a simple economy with international real capital flows, a taxonomy of alternative systems of such taxation is first presented, showing how crediting and other tax parameters induce what are called source-based, residence-based and related systems. Next, tax rates are determined that are optimal from a single country's point of view, given those of the others. The achievability of these rates under the various systems is analyzed. Finally, tax rates that are optimal from an international point of view are considered. Again, achievability of an international optimum under the various systems is considered, leading to the main conclusions that (i) a pure residence-based system in all countries can achieve an international fiscal optimum; (ii) it cannot, however, be sustained as an equilibrium.     

生态旅游资源的价值评价与最优开发路径选择

传统旅游方式不利于资源的开发和保护，生态旅游尽管对此有所改进．但仍然存在制度上的短板，容易造成“公地的悲剧”。资源的最优开发建立在囊括经济生态等多方面的价值评价。本文运用经济学方法对资源的价值进行评价．并在此基础上寻求一种资源开发的帕累托原理最优路径。     

Existence and optimality of oligopoly equilibria in linear exchange economies

Summary. We consider a linear exchange economy and its successive replicas. We study the notion of Cournot-Walras equilibrium in which the consumers use the quantities of commodities put on the market as strategic variables. We prove that, generically, if the number of replications is large enough but finite, the competitive behaviour is an oligopoly equilibrium. Then, under a mild condition, which may be interpreted in terms of market regulation and/or market activity, we show that any sequence of oligopoly equilibria of successive replica economies converges to the Walrasian outcome and furthermore that every oligopoly equilibrium of large, but finite, replica is Pareto optimal. Consequently, under the same assumptions on the fundamentals of the economy, one has an asymptotic result on the convergence of oligopoly equilibria to the Walras equilibrium together with a generic existence result for the Cournot-Walras. Received: June 20, 2002; revised version: November 20, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" Part of this paper was written while the second author was visiting the Universidad de Vigo. The support of the department of mathematics is gratefully acknowledged. Correspondence to: J.M. Bonnisseau     

Information Structure and the Tragedy of the Commons in Resource Extraction

Synopsis This paper considers the well-known Levhari-Mirman discrete-time model of resource extraction, and investigates the effects of the information structure of the dynamic game – open-loop, Markovian or history-dependent – on the equilibrium consumption path and the overall utility of the agents. Due to the special structure of the model, the open-loop regime yields a Pareto-optimal outcome. The Markovian regime leads to the most pronounced version of the tragedy of the commons. History-dependent behavior yields an outcome set that is intermediate between the other two cases, and that may include the Pareto-optimal outcome in some cases. The level of efficiency of equilibrium behaviour is thus U-shaped as a function of the level of information the agents’ extraction strategies are based on. The analysis suggests that in environments characterized by a dynamic (and no market) externality, forcing agents to commit to open-loop behavior would constitute welfare-improving regulation.     

At the origin of post-war mainstream of economics: On pareto’s influence on economic theory

Allais (1968) maintained that Pareto’s influence on the development of economics was felt only after considerable delay and was confined to Italy and France. This paper provides a reconstruction of the intellectual dissemination of Pareto’s thought through Europe and the United States in the period 1900–1940, showing that it was influential in the period from c.1900 to the mid-1920s and that in the 1930s it was highly important in the foundation of mainstream post-war economic theory, although in a more elusive way than before.(JEL:B13, B16, B21, B23, B31)     

制度系统的性质及其对于演化的影响

本文分析制度系统的关联性质———可分离性、非分离性和准分离性 ,演化的帕累托 非帕累托性质 ,以及认知正误对其演化方式和绩效的影响 :(1 )若制度系统具有演化的帕累托性质和不存在认知失误 ,则可分离制度系统将具有演化的时序无关性 ;非分离制度系统如果是强耦合关系 ,就必须实行全局共时的演化 ,即突变式演化 ;若是弱耦合关系 ,就可以实行全局历时的演化 ,即渐进式演化。 (2 )制度系统演化的非帕累托性质使得其演化成功的概率取决于演化的方式和拥护演化的群体联盟与反对演化的群体联盟之间的力量对比。 (3 )存在两种认知失误 :对于制度演化的帕累托 非帕累托性质的认知失误和对于其关联性特征的认知失误。前者涉及制度系统演化的目标模式的选择 ,后者既涉及制度系统演化的目标模式的选择 ,也涉及演化的方式和步骤的选择 ,两者同时影响制度系统演化的绩效。     

基于扩大内需的我国居民消费信贷博弈分析

消费信贷是新形势下刺激消费的一个重要举措,但由于信息不对称造成借款人的“逆向选择”与“道德风险”,导致我国的消费信贷推而不广。为提升我国消费信贷水平,扩大内需,银行应通过事前防范将消费者与银行之间的一次性博弈变为重复性博弈,通过事后补救加强对借款人的监督与对其违约行为的惩罚力度;同时要完善法律法规,构建高效的信息传递系统,重建个人信用体系,最终求得银行与消费者之间博弈的“帕累托最优”解。     

中央与地方国有资本收益分配的帕累托改进——基于制度变迁的视角

自1949年以来,中央与地方国有资本收益分配关系历经起伏,以改革开放和分税制为时间节点,大致分三个阶段:统收统支、税利合一、税利分流。回溯我国中央与地方国有资本收益分配制度的历史轨迹,剖析其动因,不难发现,中央与地方国有资本收益分配关系的变革是一个帕累托改进的过程。未来,优化中央与地方国有资本收益分配应改革国有资产管理体制,加快建立健全国有资本经营预算,走适度分权的道路。