Cost information sharing with uncertainty averse firms

Summary. A homogeneous Cournot duopoly with asymmetric information is analyzed. Every firm learns its own marginal cost parameter, but not the marginal cost parameter of the opponent. Every firm can commit to revealing its private information to the other firm, i.e. to share information. The influence of uncertainty aversion on the readiness of the duopolists to share cost information is analyzed. Uncertainty aversion is modeled according to the Choquet utility theory. It is shown that low uncertainty aversion leads the firms to share information, while high uncertainty aversion leads the firms not to share. A simple economic explanation for this result is given.Received: 5 January 2001, Revised: 7 May 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D43, D81, D82.I wish to thank Jürgen Eichberger, Volker Krätschmer, Willy Spanjers, seminar participants at Universität des Saarlandes, seminar participants at University College London, participants in the conference of the Verein für Socialpolitik in Mainz 1999 and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Central Bank.     

产业发展中的本地市场效应——基于我国2004-2009年面板数据的实证

本文利用我国2004-2009年29个省区市22个制造业细分行业的面板数据,检验了我国产业发展中的本地市场效应的存在性及其特点。研究结果显示,在省际层面上并没有发现我国产业发展中存在着本地市场效应,这或许是由于我国产业发展的空间异质性和行业差异性较强所致;而在细化的分省层面上,所得研究支持本地市场效应的存在性,且发现其具有地区和行业的选择性,即只有部分地区部分行业存在着本地市场效应,且主要集中于中东部地区与资本和技术密集型的行业。这可以为我国各省区市转变产业发展方式,提升产业发展质量和效益提供政策启示:如可通过培育具有本地市场效应的产业来转变传统的以资源密集型或劳动密集型为特征的产业发展方式,通过发掘和利用产业发展中的规模效应来加快技术创新和产业升级的步伐。     

产业升级转型阶段的制造业生产效率比较研究——以江苏为例

本文以江苏省全部国有及规模以上制造业30个行业为研究对象,运用DEA分析法测算了30个行业的纯技术效率和规模效率,在此基础上运用Malmquist指数法测算了制造业全要素生产率、技术进步指数和技术效率指数,并从制造业整体层面,将江苏与上海、浙江、广东和山东四省市进行了对比分析。结论认为,江苏省制造行业技术效率和规模效率差异显著,多数行业不能同时达到技术与规模有效;其制造业全要素生产率的增长主要得益于技术进步和纯技术效率的影响,而规模效率产生负面影响;江苏省制造业整体技术效率相对其他四省市而言水平较低。作为制造业大省,江苏需加快行业技术进步,提高技术效率和规模效率,以促进制造业行业全要素生产率的提高。     

Risk,uncertainty, and leverage

Using mostly theoretical models and traditional risk/uncertainty measures (VIX index, panic, precaution, scary bad news, etc.), the current literature tries to clarify the risk/uncertainty-deleveraging pattern. The findings are not sufficient to explain the dynamic empirical relationship between modern risk/uncertainty indicators and leverage. We fill this gap in the literature by using US quarterly data, from 1985:1 to 2018:4, Granger causality tests, and a structural vector autoregression model. We find that commercial bank leverage rises when geopolitical risk and macroeconomic, policy, and equity uncertainty increase. Client-based business relationships of banks and high government borrowing from banks during crises periods are responsible for this relationship. We find that the leverage of broker-dealers and shadow banks declines when Chicago risk and macroeconomic, policy, financial, and equity uncertainty increase. We argue that the vulnerability of broker-dealers and shadow banks to the risk/uncertainty of the entire market system is responsible for this relationship.     

"要素所有权"与"要素贡献"--论"按要素分配"问题的实质与衡量标准

我国实行的按生产要素分配，是根据不同生产要素的所有权关系，以及这些不同生产要素在财富的生产中所作的贡献产生的一种分配形式。“要素所有权”是生产方式的前提和起点，它决定生产资料和社会成员在各生产部门间的分配，是“按要素分配”原则存在的依据，“要素贡献”是按要素分配原则的最终决定因素。在按要素分配理论中，正确认识“要素所有权”与“要素贡献”两者间的内在联系和区别，是理解按生产要素分配问题的关键所在。     

论项目投资评价中的时间风险值效应及其选择

基于现行现金流折现的项目投资评价的有效性取决于对项目现金流量预测的正确性,而项目现金流量具有预测发生的时间越遥远,现金流量不确定性的程度越大但又趋于相对稳定的特征.从这一特征出发,本文引入时间风险值进行折现调整这种系统可循的方法来解决在投资评价时难以预计的项目现金流量未来的不确定性问题,从而使不确定性条件下的项目投资评价更具有客观性.     

中国不同所有制工业企业经济发展的比较研究

基于《中国统计年鉴》（2010）的数据,采用因子分析法对中国31个省市的国有、私营、外商投资工业企业经济发展情况予以统计排序,并进行了区域内部和区域之间的比较研究。分析结果显示,各省市内部国有工业企业、私营工业企业和外商投资工业企业经济的发展存在不协调性,不同所有制工业企业在各省市的优先发展情况可以划分为六种类型;各省市之间工业企业经济的发展存在不均衡性,国有工业企业、私营工业企业和外商投资工业企业的经济发展水平符合中国区域经济东强西弱的总体特征;东、中、西部国有、私营和外商投资工业企业经济发展呈现出各自的特征：东部的国有工业企业发展相对滞后：中部的外商投资_X=lk企业发展相对缓慢;西部的内蒙古、陕西、四川的工业企业经济发展速度比较快。     

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY: ROBUST RULES IN MONETARY POLICY

We argue that in seeking to insure against model uncertainty, monetary policy makers are often ready to trade ex post performance for greater certainty in the outcome. They thus look for rules that although not optimal ex post, have certain properties that qualify them as robust. We apply first, Gul's approach of ‘disappointment’ aversion to describe policy makers' aversion to uncertainty and then define the properties the notion of ‘robustness’ entails. With these two tools we then link the desirability of such robust rules to the degree of policy makers' aversion to uncertainty. We thus show that provided such robust rules exist, a larger degree of disappointment aversion leads to a greater emphasis on robustness in policy implementation.     

Megatrends as perceived in Turkey in comparison to Austria and Germany

Countries and companies use foresight studies to manage uncertainty. Environmental scanning and trend analyses are important tools for identifying and monitoring change. Trend analysis requires more than simply extrapolating to the future. The content of communication serves as the basis of inference so those trends could be explored.This research uses an interdisciplinary approach combining media content analysis and factor analysis to discover many ways Turkey and the world may restructure and what the new society may look like as perceived by the individuals who participated in the survey. It determines six types of individuals in Turkey with different personal attitudes towards megatrends. Similarities and dissimilarities with previous studies in Austria and Germany are identified and discussed.     

Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments

The development and analysis of scenarios or plausible futures has evolved to be a useful approach for dealing with uncertainty about future developments in a structured and integrated manner. Commonly, scenario exercises have focussed on processes at one specific geographic scale. Recently scenario-based approaches have also been used to address multi-scale processes or to link scenarios developed at various geographical scales with each other in order to better understand the interaction of processes across scales.The level of interconnectedness across scales will vary, and depends largely on the approaches used to develop multi-scale scenarios. We distinguish five levels of interconnectedness scenarios may display across scales: (a) Equivalent, (b) Consistent, (c) Coherent, (d) Comparable, and (e) Complementary. Furthermore, we describe five different types of coupled scenario development processes: (a) Joint, (b) Parallel, (c) Iterative, (d) Consecutive, and (e) Independent.Based on this nomenclature, the relationship between the level of interconnectedness of scenarios and the degree of coupling of scenario development processes across geographical scales is discussed. Which process is best suited and how much interconnectedness is needed, will depend both on the focal issue and the primary purpose of the scenario exercise, i.e. whether the aim is education, scientific exploration, or decision-support.