福利危机与改革路径——20世纪90年代以来的香港社会救助

作为全球最活跃的经济体之一,香港一直坚持低税制、低福利、高发展的路线,并根据自身情况建立了一套具有香港特色的社会救助制度。但是,20世纪90年代后,经济、社会等领域发生的重大变化导致这一制度面临诸多问题。为此,香港政府进行了一系列改革,改革汲取了当代全球先进福利理念及经验,在许多方面突破了单纯强调收入援助的传统救助模式,而转向一种新的具有社会投资倾向的积极救助模式。     

我国当代科技政策价值取向探析

2006年2月,国务院发布了《2006-2020年国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要》,这是党中央在新形势下根据我国国情制定的科技政策,对科学技术发展重新进行规划,体现了当代科技政策新的发展方向和价值取向。     

后危机时代日本产业政策再思考——基于日本“新增长战略”

日本作为最早实施产业政策的国家,其政策效应备受世人关注。全球性金融危机重新引发了政府通过产业政策拯救陷入危机的企业,并引导产业发展方向的新高潮。后金融危机时代上台的日本民主党政权,根据新增长战略提出了重振日本经济,全面提升产业竞争力的长期产业政策。而作为未来增长产业的前瞻性扶持政策,今后日本产业政策的重点在于创造需求为主、扶持软产业出口以及培养产业活力上。日本产业政策的重大调整对同样面临着后危机时代产业结构和经济发展模式转变的中国经济具有重要的借鉴意义。     

我国股票期权企业所得税税收政策研究

2005年财政部、国家税务总局发布了《关于个人股票期权所得征收个人所得税问题的通知》(财税〔2005〕35号),首次明确了要对员工取得的股票期权收入征收个人所得税。但对于企业所得税方面的规定目前还是空白,需要尽快出台与股票期权激励计划有关的企业所得税方面的政策,以促进其发展。本文首先介绍我国的股票期权税收政策;其次对股票期权涉及的企业所得税方面的问题进行了探讨;最后对我国在制定股票期权企业所得税政策时须注意的问题提出了建议。     

我国银行保险的发展变迁与路径选择

银行保险是20世纪80年代以来,随着银行业全能化和保险业产销分离趋势的发展而形成的一种新型金融服务形式,并在欧美及亚洲的许多发达国家和地区取得了长足发展。我国银行保险业务的发展虽然起步较晚,但发展很快,进一步向纵深发展的态势非常明显。本文联系我国银行保险的发展变迁,深入剖析其中存在的主要问题,并提出符合我国现实国情的银行保险发展的路径选择。     

企业社会责任、经济政策不确定性与融资约束——基于社会责任“累积-保险”效应的研究视角

综合运用2009-2017年A股上市公司数据,通过长、短期社会责任的影响对比,考察了在面对经济政策不确定性的冲击时,企业社会责任对融资约束的影响效应,并论证了不同政策不确定程度下的效应表现机理。结果表明:企业社会责任具备"累积效应",长期社会责任的融资约束缓解作用强于短期社会责任;企业社会责任也具备"保险效应",会显著削弱经济政策不确定性加剧融资约束的程度。进一步研究发现,高经济政策不确定性下:"累积效应"仍然存在,且会因长期社会责任"保险效应"加强而得到强化。不同产权性质下:国有企业的融资约束受政策不确定性影响较小,且"双效应"更稳定;而非国有企业的社会责任对融资约束的缓解作用更强,但受经济政策冲击更大。研究揭示了企业社会责任对融资约束的积极效应,呼吁企业应积极履行社会责任并值得长期坚持。     

Scarcity of safe assets,inflation, and the policy trap

A goal of this paper is to make sense of the seemingly puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation – and the role of central banks in that behavior – during and after the Great Recession, particularly in the United States. To this end, we construct a model in which government debt plays a key role in exchange, and can bear a liquidity premium. If asset market constraints bind, then there need not be deflation under an indefinite zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). Further, ZIRP may not be optimal under these circumstances. A Taylor-rule central banker could be subject to a ZIRP trap and persistently undershoot target inflation. As well, a liquidity premium on government debt creates additional Taylor rule perils, because of a persistently low real interest rate. We make a case that this is the key policy predicament currently faced by many central banks in the world.     

Liquidity risk and policy options

On the basis of a liquidity management model, liquidity risks, defined as the probability of payment failures in a real-time gross settlement (RTGS) payment system, may either stem from liquidity management inefficiencies or insufficient cash balances. I will show that penalties charged on the amount of payment failures minimise liquidity risks without interfering with the bank’s technology preferences. I will instead show that liquidity requirements, although as effective as penalties to contain the risk of liquidity shortage, may distort the bank’s technology preferences and cannot stem liquidity management inefficiencies. I will also show that liquidity risks within RTGS payment systems are potentially smaller because they depend more on the liquidity management efficiency than on the randomness of cash inflows and outflows.     

Climate-change lore and its implications for climate science: Post-science deliberations?

Using of the results of survey questionnaires distributed to climate scientists who focus on the German Baltic coast, regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast and weather observations from the same region, this paper assesses the existence of developing climate-change lore and the implications for the role of climate science in the science–policy interface. The Oxford Dictionary (1993) provides one definition of lore as ‘A doctrine, a precept; a creed, a religion.’ This is the definition adopted for this paper. The paper concludes that the discrepancies among weather observations, scientific assessments and decision makers’ perceptions suggest that climate-change lore exists, or is coming into existence. The paper then discusses the implications for the science–policy interface and suggests that given current trajectories, science could come to play a secondary role to climate-change lore in regional political decision making concerning climate change. To the truth-to-power model of the science–policy interface and the tenets of post-normal science, three additional possibly evolving science–policy configurations (as pertaining to the climate change issue) are offered.     

基于银行流动性管理视角的宏观审慎与货币政策协调研究

本文从商业银行流动性管理视角出发,探究银行微观主体行为如何影响宏观审慎与货币政策的协调。我们借鉴净稳定资金比例的设计理念,将商业银行的流动性管理行为纳入传统理论模型,刻画出两种流动性管理行为对货币政策信贷传导渠道效率的潜在影响及传导路径。在此基础上,采用我国50家商业银行2012年第1季度—2018年第2季度面板数据进行实证检验。我们发现,银行为提升长期流动性水平而进行的优化信贷资产结构的行为,能够显著提高货币政策传导效率。但是,部分净稳定资金比例较低的股份制银行和城市商业银行调整非信贷资产结构的行为则有可能降低货币政策传导效率。因此,在执行既有流动性监管措施的同时,关注与引导银行资产结构调整方式,对增强宏观审慎与货币政策的协调大有裨益。