上海自贸区的“光环效应”及问题分析--从自贸区“抢位”现象说起

中国（上海）自由贸易试验区自成立以来一直是人们关注的热点，人们在参与自贸区活动中存在着“抢位”等盲目行为，自贸区“光环效应”明显。不良“光环效应”遮蔽自贸区的内在发展，反映了我国在自贸区发展过程中存在系统性和前瞻性的宏观问题。文章从自贸区的本身、人们心理情感、政策环境和信息传递过程四个方面分析自贸区不良“光环效应”的产生原因，并揭示不良“光环效应”可能带来的弊端，如浪费资源、破坏市场秩序、影响社会稳定、降低政府公信力、增加政策执行难度、遮蔽自贸区本质、不利于长远发展等问题。最后，在健康生态的理念下从三个方面探求破解“光环效应”、回归上海自贸区发展“正道”的有效途径，包括信息传递过程要公开、透明、准确、快速；各活动主体需开阔视野、端正认识、回归理性；自贸区自身建设则要立足国际环境，激发内在动力，以制度创新为突破点，构建对接全球经济发展的市场生态。     

Forecasting the urban skyline with extreme value theory

The world’s urban population is expected to grow fifty percent by the year 2050 and exceed six billion. The major challenges confronting cities, such as sustainability, safety, and equality, will depend on the infrastructure developed to accommodate the increase. Urban planners have long debated the consequences of vertical expansion—the concentration of residents by constructing tall buildings—over horizontal expansion—the dispersal of residents by extending urban boundaries. Yet relatively little work has predicted the vertical expansion of cities and quantified the likelihood and therefore urgency of these consequences.We regard tall buildings as random exceedances over a threshold and use extreme value theory to forecast the skyscrapers that will dominate the urban skyline in 2050 if present trends continue. We predict forty-one thousand skyscrapers will surpass 150 meters and 40 floors, an increase of eight percent a year, far outpacing the expected urban population growth of two percent a year. The typical tall skyscraper will not be noticeably taller, and the tallest will likely exceed one thousand meters but not one mile. If a mile-high skyscraper is constructed, it will hold fewer occupants than many of the mile-highs currently designed. We predict roughly three-quarters the number of floors of the Mile-High Tower, two-thirds of Next Tokyo’s Sky Mile Tower, and half the floors of Frank Lloyd Wright’s The Illinois—three prominent plans for a mile-high skyscraper. However, the relationship between floor and height will vary considerably across cities.     

Urban Warfare Ecology: A Study of Water Supply in Basrah

This article assesses the impact of armed conflict on the drinking water service of Basrah from 1978 to 2013 through an ‘urban warfare ecology’ lens in order to draw out the implications for relief programming and relevance to urban studies. It interprets an extensive range of unpublished literature through a frame that incorporates the accumulation of direct and indirect impacts upon the hardware, consumables and people upon which urban services rely. The analysis attributes a step‐wise decline in service quality to the lack of water treatment chemicals, lack of spare parts, and, primarily, an extended ‘brain‐drain’ of qualified water service staff. The service is found to have been vulnerable to dependence upon foreign parts and people, ‘vicious cycles’ of impact, and the politics of aid and of reconstruction. It follows that practitioners and donors eschew ideas of relief–rehabilitation–development (RRD) for an appreciation of the needs particular to complex urban warfare biospheres, where armed conflict and sanctions permeate all aspects of service provision through altered biological and social processes. The urban warfare ecology lens is found to be a useful complement to ‘infrastructural warfare’ research, suggesting the study of protracted armed conflict upon all aspects of urban life be both deepened technically and broadened to other cases.     

Evaluating intergenerational risks

Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). We respond to this call by proposing and axiomatizing probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU) through a key axiom ensuring that the social welfare order both is ethical and satisfies first-order stochastic dominance. PARDCLU yields a new useful perspective on intergenerational risks, is ethical in contrast to discounted utilitarianism, and avoids objections that have been raised against other ethical criteria. We show that PARDCLU handles situations with positive probability of human extinction and is linked to decision theory by yielding rank-dependent expected utilitarianism—but with additional structure—in a special case.     

Ponds,Power and Institutions: The Everyday Governance of Accessing Urban Water Bodies in a Small Bengali City

While researchers in the growing field of urban political ecology have given significant attention to the fragmented hydroscape that characterizes access to drinking water in the global South, so far the (re)production of other urban waters and its related power relations have been underexplored. This article seeks to contribute to filling this gap by exploring the everyday negotiations over access to urban water bodies, in particular ponds. These are understood as a composite resource that is simultaneously water, land and public space. This analysis draws on a case study from a small city in West Bengal, India, and is based primarily on data from open interviews with different actors with a stake in urban ponds. The article demonstrates that in a context of ambiguity of the statutory governance regime and fragmented control, the (re)production of the pondscape is embedded within complex relationships of power whereby social marginalization can be offset at least momentarily by local institutions such as neighbourhood clubs and political parties.     

Live and let die: A survival analysis of foreign R&D units in Swedish MNEs

This paper develops and tests a set of hypotheses regarding factors that influenced the longevity of foreign research and development units in Swedish multinational enterprises over the period 1992–2012. The results reveal an underexplored aspect of the R&D internationalization—the volatility of foreign R&D laboratories. During the investigated period, more than 40% of the R&D units in the sample had been terminated. The results substantiate earlier research regarding the negative effects of mergers and acquisitions on R&D in acquired units but show that these effects are not immediate. They appear – if at all – with a time lag of several years. The hazard of closure for an individual unit seems to be more strongly related to its role and position within the MNE than to local country characteristics. It was smaller for strongly locally embedded units and units with global mandates, but – contrary to expectations – the hazard was greater for units highly integrated with the rest of the MNE.     

论我国计划生育政策的成果、问题及对策

计划生育政策的实施取得了巨大的成效,但在新时期,却带来很多的社会问题,我们可以有针对性地采取对策,扭转失误,使今后的人口控制走上科学的道路。     

Strategy-proof preference aggregation: Possibilities and characterizations

An aggregation rule maps each profile of individual strict preference orderings over a set of alternatives into a social ordering over that set. We call such a rule strategy-proof if misreporting one's preference never produces a different social ordering that is between the original ordering and one's own preference. After describing two examples of manipulable rules, we study in some detail three classes of strategy-proof rules: (i) rules based on a monotonic alteration of the majority relation generated by the preference profile; (ii) rules improving upon a fixed status-quo; and (iii) rules generalizing the Condorcet–Kemeny aggregation method.     

江西省农村金融生态发展滞后现状、成因及其破解

良好的金融生态可以促进农村经济结构调整和经济增长方式的转变,增强资金的使用效率。文章结合相关的金融生态水平指标对江西省农村金融生态状况进行了一般性描述,并分析其发展滞后的原因,在此基础上演绎出相应的政策选择。     

思想政治理论课程文化模式及其建构

社会学视野中,思想政治理论课程建设的文化标准是高度复合化的指标系统,多元文化的碰撞与交融构成了思想政治理论课程建设的文化背景。思想政治理论课程文化要代表先进文化的前进方向,就必须提升课程文化的政治鉴别力和判断力,发挥课程文化的主导性,营造从科学世界向生活世界回归的新型课程文化生态。