关于积极财政政策挤出效应的研究文献综述

积极财政政策否存在挤出效应一直是目前学术界争论的焦点,存在这样的两种观点：一是以吴俊培为代表,认为积极财政政策具有一定的挤出效应,另外一种以郭庆旺为代表,则否认我国的积极财政政策具有挤出效应。财政加大生产性支出有助于提高社会资本收益率水平,因为在其他条件不变的情况下,民间投资与资本收益率正相关,证明了财政投资不排挤私人投资。     

技术标准对我国农产品出口的制约及对策研究——基于中日农产品贸易实践

在标准主导国际竞争的当今,我国农产品出口遭遇的技术标准限制愈加频繁。落后的经营模式、标准约束较弱、技术质量意识淡漠以及贸易自由化进程滞缓、国际组织机构助推、消费偏好的变化等分别是我国农产品出口陷入国外标准壁垒困扰的内外部原因。基于中国对日本农产品出口贸易实践,通过构建虚拟增长函数证实了日本《肯定列表》对我国农产品出口所产生的负面影响。为此,我国尚需在农业标准化体系的建设、标准的推广与规范以及经营方式的转变等方面加大力度、加快步伐。     

外汇储备的积极管理:新加坡、挪威的经验与启示

一定规模的外汇储备有助于保持汇率的稳定,保证正常的进口和偿债支出,并能有效应对外部冲击导致的金融风险。但是,中国当前的外汇储备规模已经远远超过了最优规模。本文试图借鉴新加坡和挪威等国的经验,介绍外汇储备的积极管理。新加坡和挪威的经验表明,外汇储备的积极管理可以提高本国储备资产的长期购买力、提升本国的国际竞争力并消除外汇储备增加对宏观政策自主性的影响。在消极外汇储备管理的模式下,中国优化外汇储备的货币结构和资产结构存在一定的局限性。本文对建立中国的外汇储备积极管理体制提出了建议并指出值得注意的若干问题。     

正能城市：概念与评价指标研究

提出并论证了“正能城市”的概念,从能的量值、能的形式和能效提升三方面对其内涵作了深入阐述。举例说明正能城市的形态,指出其与传统资源型城市和低碳城市的区别。同时建立了正能城市的评价指标体系,从总量指标、结构指标、效率指标和政策指标等方面评价城市的正能程度。最后给出了建设正能城市的若干建议。     

股指期货抑制股市正反馈交易的效果及作用机制分析——对全球主要市场的实证检验

普遍存在的正反馈交易行为,加剧股市波动,必须加以有效治理。本文以正反馈模型为基础,对包括新兴市场在内的全球10个代表性指数进行实证检验。结果表明,上市股指期货能够有效抑制股市正反馈交易,这补充和完善了Antoniou et al．（2005）的工作。本文进而分析了股指期货发挥作用的五条渠道,并认为上市股指期货能够进一步完善内在稳定机制。     

放松市场准入管制提高了企业投资效率吗？——基于“市场准入负面清单”试点的准自然实验

放松市场准入的制度改革对激发市场活力、优化营商环境,并最终促进经济高质量发展至关重要。本研究运用交错双重差分法,检验以市场准入负面清单制度为代表的市场准入制度改革能否提高企业投资效率。结果表明:(1)市场准入负面清单制度能够显著提升企业投资效率;(2)竞争公平性与充分性的提高、交易费用的降低是市场准入负面清单提高企业投资效率的重要作用机制;(3)市场准入负面清单实施后,内部治理水平较低企业的投资动机被强化,融资约束较低企业的投资能力更强,因而企业投资效率更高;(4)市场准入负面清单制度能够显著促进企业经营业绩与地区经济发展。本文从企业投资效率角度检验了市场准入负面清单制度的政策效应,为深化“放管服”改革提供了经验证据和政策启示。     

李斯特经济理论及其现实意义

纵观经济学史,李斯特是首位建立了一套完整的经济学理论对今天仍处于正统地位的斯密学说进行系统批判的经济学家。李斯特认为,由于古典经济学家混淆了价值理论和生产力理论,从而只是探讨了个人经济学和人类经济学,忽视了国家经济学。如果考虑到国家经济学,动态的贸易保护政策才能最终实现自由贸易,并最终符合所有人的利益。李斯特的经济理论无论对经济学本身还是对广大发展中国家对外贸易政策的制定仍然具有非常重要的理论和现实意义。     

信息不对称条件下有效公共决策模式探析

根据信息经济学的不对称理论和博弈论,公共决策实质上就是非同质性决策参与者的多重利益博弈过程。公共决策模式包括精英决断型、冲突斡旋型、专家建议型、代表协商型和全民公决型五种类型。公共决策产出实质上就是通过这五种模式做出的关系调整与利益平衡。     

Paying for the hydrological services of Mexico's forests: Analysis, negotiations and results

Mexico faces both high deforestation and severe water scarcity. The Payment for Hydrological Environmental Services (PSAH) Program was designed to complement other policy responses to the crisis at the interface of these problems. Through the PSAH, the Mexican federal government pays participating forest owners for the benefits of watershed protection and aquifer recharge in areas where commercial forestry is not currently competitive. Funding comes from fees charged to water users, from which nearly US$18 million are earmarked for payments of environmental services. Applicants are selected according to several criteria that include indicators of the value of water scarcity in the region. This paper describes the process of policy design of the PSAH, the main actors involved in the program, its operating rules, and provides a preliminary evaluation. One of the main findings is that many of the program's payments have been in areas with low deforestation risk. Selection criteria need to be modified to better target the areas where benefits to water users are highest and behavior modification has the least cost, otherwise the program main gains will be distributive, but without bringing a Pareto improvement in overall welfare.     

Implied risk aversion and pricing kernel in the FTSE 100 index

This paper studies the estimation of the pricing kernel and explains the pricing kernel puzzle found in the FTSE 100 index. We use prices of options and futures on the FTSE 100 index to derive the risk neutral density (RND). The option-implied RND is inverted by using two nonparametric methods: the implied-volatility surface interpolation method and the positive convolution approximation (PCA) method. The actual density distribution is estimated from the historical data of the FTSE 100 index by using the threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model. The results show that the RNDs derived from the two methods above are relatively negatively skewed and fat-tailed, compared to the actual probability density, that is consistent with the phenomenon of “volatility smile.” The derived risk aversion is found to be locally increasing at the center, but decreasing at both tails asymmetrically. This is the so-called pricing kernel puzzle. The simulation results based on a representative agent model with two state variables show that the pricing kernel is locally increasing with the wealth at the level of 1 and is consistent with the empirical pricing kernel in shape and magnitude.