交易成本对股票价格的影响研究--基于深圳股票市场的经验研究

本文利用Umlauf(1993)方法和事件研究法,研究了证券印花税变化对深市大盘指数以及单只股票的影响,证明了印花税税率下调会提高股票价格指数水平,得到一个显著的正收益率,而上调会降低股票价格指数水平,得到一个显著的负收益率这一结论.表明了印花税可以作为一种调控证券市场的宏观政策工具,并且为这种政策调控提供了一定的数量指导.     

城市房价联动的网络结构特征及其影响因素——基于中国69个大中城市月度数据的经验考察

全面认识城市房价联动的网络结构特征对于提高房价调控政策的精准性、构建跨区域房价协同调控机制具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。本文基于2011年1月至2015年2月中国69个大中城市50个月的新建商品住宅销售价格同比指数,利用社会网络分析（SNA）方法实证考察了城市房价联动的网络结构特征及其影响因素。研究发现：①从整体网络结构特征看,样本考察期内,中国城市房价联动呈现显著的网络结构形态,且通达性好、稳定性高。②中心性分析结果显示,上海、广州、深圳、北京等城市中心度较高,处于网络中心位置,具有房价“引领”作用。③块模型分析结果显示,北京等9个城市属于净溢出板块,在网络中扮演“引导”角色;长沙等17个城市属于经纪人板块,在网络中扮演“桥梁”角色;北海等25个城市属于双向溢出板块,在网络中扮演内、外部双向“引导”角色;九江等18个城市属于净受益板块,在网络中扮演“跟随”角色。此外,板块的“俱乐部效应”、“梯度效应”显著。④QAP分析结果显示,城市间人口数量、经济发展水平、工资收入水平、金融发展水平和产业结构差异对城市间房价联动关系具有显著影响。基于上述结论本文提出了中国城市房价协同调控的政策建议。     

晋升激励与经济发展

在中国式改革和发展的过程中,对地方官员的晋升激励扮演了重要的角色,这一视角对理解中国的经济增长及其中存在的诸多问题提供了新颖而重要的认识。本文在对现有文献的把握基础上,综述式地梳理出一个晋升激励与经济发展的分析框架,并将这一框架运用到对转轨经济中若干现象的理解当中,对若干经济现象给予系统解释。得到的一个重要认识是,政府主导型经济中的相对绩效考核激励机制与长期绩效之间存在两难冲突,政治治理结构中晋升激励的应用构成了中国经济增长的重要来源,但也带来了高昂的发展代价。在此基础上,本文提供了一些可改进的建议并展望了未来的研究方向。     

Government Funding Policy Towards Communicable Diseases

The paper investigates the choice of government to offer a grant to a potential entrant aimed at reducing its fixed cost of entry when a monopoly firm provides the needed pharmaceutical drug given the prevalence path of the disease in a dynamic economic framework. The results of present study suggest that government can use a grant to credibly threaten the entry of a new firm into the industry and to promote limit-output pricing by the incumbent firm. The paper therefore suggests that the government policy set includes subsidizing the potential entry of a new firm into an industry manufacturing pharmaceutical drugs for the treatment of a communicable disease. Clearly, foreign aid could also be used as a source of this credible threat. The study also extends the paper by Mechoulan (2007) through the introduction of the government’s choice into the model.

Pump Prices and Oil Prices: A Tale of Two Directions

It has been argued that retail gasoline prices adjust more quickly to crude oil price increases than to price decreases. We investigate this issue using the statewide data on weekly retail gasoline prices in the United States between January 2000 and June 2007. Our analysis does not confirm the prediction that gasoline prices adjust more quickly to price increases in crude oil prices. On the contrary, the results suggest that in some geographic areas gasoline prices could change faster when crude oil prices decrease. These findings suggest that a national or a one size fits all energy policy for the United States may be misguided.

The case for price level or inflation targeting—What happened to monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation?

This paper examines whether price level or inflation targeting would have been appropriate policy choices for Japan during its disinflation and deflation period. We employ Markov switching and structural vector autoregressions, together with structural IS equations, to investigate monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation. We find evidence of regime switching in the mid-1990s in a model including the nominal policy interest rate. When monetary policy shocks are identified by using the McCallum rule for monetary base, a monetary expansion is found to have a statistically significant impact on prices. Moreover, a lower real ex ante interest rate can still stimulate the economy despite the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.     

中国省级政府为什么努力发展经济？

基于省级领导人是自利的假定,本文从一个新的视角来解释中国经济增长。因为地方领导人（各省的书记和省长）能够从自由处置某些财政资源中获得效用,因此,权力对他们极为重要,中央政府的人事安排将显著影响省级领导人的效用。在行政系统中,大部分省级领导人晋升机会很小,而一部分人必须退出。因此,对一些省级领导人来说,保留原职是最佳选择。模型显示,因为中央政府使用GDP标准考核省级领导人,中央政府将惩罚不努力发展经济的省级领导人,而不是提升经济发展较好的省级领导人的承诺,是激励省级领导人竭尽全力发展地方经济最重要的动力。     

汇率波动对房地产价格影响的多视角分析及对策研究

随着全球金融危机的发展和我国2008年下半年的经济下滑,2008年12月1日的人民币汇率冲击跌停。期间,房地产价格出现了较大幅度的下跌。对比前几年的人民币升值和房地产价格的大涨,明显显示,汇率的波动对房地产价格具有重要影响。尤其是国际"热钱"在汇率剧烈波动中对房地产的投机破坏作用引起人们的担心。本文从汇率对物价的传导机制、供给需求理论、国际投资理财等多视角讨论汇率波动对房地产价格的影响并分析提出相应对策。     

石油价格对我国通货膨胀影响的实证分析研究

石油是现代化工业国家的重要战略资源。随着中国对国际石油依赖程度的提高,中国石油市场与国民经济正面临着新的挑战。中国的通货膨胀也受到了石油价格越来越多的影响。本文通过建立"MLR(Q)模型"和"MLR(F)模型"分阶段观察国际、国内石油价格对我国通货膨胀动态影响。文章指出:中国通货膨胀受国内石油价格波动的影响显著,而受国际石油价格波动影响不明显;但随着中国石油进口量的增加及国内石油价格与国际石油价格的逐步接轨,国内通货膨胀率受国际石油价格的影响在逐渐扩大。     

Competitive pricing decisions in a two-echelon supply chain with horizontal and vertical competition

This study investigates the pricing decisions in a non-cooperative supply chain that consists of two retailers and one common supplier. The retailers order from the common supplier and compete in the same market. We analyze six power structures that characterize exclusively horizontal competition between the retailers and vertical competition between the supplier and the retailers, leading to different sequences of moves among the chain members. We derive the analytical forms of the equilibrium quantities under each power structure and explore the effect of retail substitutability on the equilibrium quantities among all power structures. We further investigate the performances of the game models as compared with the integrated model.