谈进口资本品的双重效应与技术进步——基于2001-2009年中国省际面板数据分析

利用我国27个省市区2001—2009年的面板数据,采用动态面板数据模型分析方法,对进口资本品影响技术进步的双重效应、滞后效应与间接效应进行实证分析。结果显示,进口资本品对TFP的影响具有双重效应,进口资本品与TFP呈倒"U"型关系;在研究样本期内,进口资本品对TFP的负面影响占主导地位,其数量已超过最优值,此时再增加资本品进口会导致TFP下降。滞后一期的进口资本品能够促进技术进步。进口资本品还通过人力资本、FDI等间接渠道对技术进步产生积极影响。     

Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.     

构建和谐社会视角下的户籍制度改革与城乡协调发展

城乡协调发展是建设社会主义和谐社会的重要内容,而当前城乡关系问题的焦点则在于当代的户籍管理制度.本文运用新制度主义的方法,剖析了该户籍制度的基本特征,进而指出了它在各时期对城乡关系的不同影响.目前它与市场化改革总方向是不相适应的,但仍有一定程度的合理性.改革目标是建立适应社会主义市场经济要求的现代户籍制度,改革的重难点则集中在公共品供求紧张、本地人和外来人矛盾尖锐的一些城市.     

区位性因素与公共品的最优供给

本文分析了两种区位性因素对地方公共品最优供给(质量与数量)的影响。一类区位性因素为某公共品在城市中所在的区域。分析表明,位于城市边缘地区的公共品的最优质量要小于位于城市中心地区公共品的最优质量。另一类区位性因素为某公共品与居民的相对位置(距离),这一因素在具体分析中被转化为使用居民出行半径表示的指标。结论表明,出行半径的增加一方面加大了中间投票人与公共品之间的距离,另一方面也使得原先距离公共品较远的居民得以有机会享用该公共品。前一种影响对公共品的最优质量起抑制作用,后一种影响的效果则相反。而公共品的最优质量随出行半径如何变化,将取决于这两种效应之间的比较。本文还根据公共品之间是否存在替代性区分了替代性公共品与非替代性公共品,并分析了这两种不同性质的公共品受区位性因素影响而在最优质量与最优供给数量上所呈现出的差异。     

Optimum allocation in multivariate stratified random sampling: stochastic matrix mathematical programming

The allocation problem for multivariate stratified random sampling as a problem of stochastic matrix integer mathematical programming is considered, minimizing the estimated covariance matrix of estimated means subject to fixed cost or fixed total sample size. With these aims the asymptotic normality of sample covariance matrices for each strata is established. Some alternative approaches are suggested for its solution. An example is solved by applying the proposed techniques.     

全球创意产业贸易的现状、趋势及对策

近年来,随着创意经济的日益兴起,创意产品在国际贸易中的地位逐步提升,已经取代传统的制造业产品成为国际贸易中最具活力的领域。本文研究了全球创意产业贸易的发展现状和发展趋势,提出拓展我国创意产业贸易,提升其国际竞争力的政策建议。     

当前我国物价形势分析

本文详细介绍了改革开放不同阶段我国物价运行的特征,分析了历次物价上涨的原因,且进一步从工业类消费品与食品类消费品的物理属性及消费特点进行了深入研究,并对影响目前物价的各因素进行剖析,进而提出了有效控制物价的政策建议。     

The effects of tariffs on coalition formation in a dynamic global warming game

The prospects for cooperation on climate protection beyond 2012 are currently uncertain. Thus policy instruments which foster participation in International Environmental Agreements (IEA) are in demand. Among the instruments under discussion are trade sanctions. Multi-region optimal growth models are a state of the art tool for integrated assessment, but introducing trade sanctions distorts the competitive equilibrium, making it difficult to compute numerically. We introduce trade and trade sanctions into a model of coalition stability to assess the potential of trade sanctions to support an IEA. Trade is modeled by having all countries produce a generic output good, but adopting national product differentiation (Armington assumption). Coalitions are free to impose tariffs on imports from non-cooperating countries. We solve the model numerically using a refined version of Negishi's [Negishi, T., 1960. Welfare economics and existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy. Metroeconomica 12, 92–97] basic algorithm. We then apply the model to analyze the influence of tariffs on international cooperation. The model suggests that there is indeed a significant potential to raise participation through trade sanctions, even when goods from different countries are nearly perfect substitutes. Furthermore we investigate the effect of trade sanctions on global welfare, environmental effectiveness, and the credibility of the tariff mechanism.     

Decision of the General Administration of Customs concerning Amending the Measures of the Customs of the People's Republic of China for the Supervision of Processing Trade Goods

For the purpose of adapting to the changes in processing trade and regularizing the relevant business of processing trade,the General Administration of Customs has decided to make the following amendments to the Measures of the Customs of the People's Republic of China for the Supervision of Processing Trade Goods (Decree No.13 of the General Administration of Customs,hereinafter referred to as the Measures):     

我国对外贸易商品结构和方式与经济增长的相关性比较

改革开放以来,我国的对外贸易和经济增长都取得了令人瞩目的成就,但不同的对外贸易商品结构和方式对我国经济增长的影响是不同的。本文运用协整和格兰杰因果检验方法对我国的进出口贸易、投入品和消费品贸易、一般贸易和加工贸易与我国经济增长的相关关系进行了比较分析。结果表明:第一,我国的对外贸易、进口贸易、出口贸易都与经济增长呈正相关关系,但进口贸易对经济增长的推动作用更大,而且进口还是推动我国出口的重要原因;第二,我国投入品的进口和出口以及消费品的出口都与经济增长呈正相关关系,但投入品的进口对经济增长的推动作用更大,而消费品的进口对经济增长有负面影响;第三,我国一般贸易和加工贸易都与经济增长呈正相关关系,但一般贸易对经济增长的推动作用比加工贸易要显著得多。