金融危机对国际贸易的影响及其对我国的启示

考察国际贸易的变化是测度金融危机影响的一种直接手段。通过比较借鉴经典的银行挤提理论和引力模型,对国际贸易视角下的金融危机影响进行了理论分析;筛选了20个国家2008年的双边贸易数据、宏观经济数据等作为样本,进行了实证检验。结果表明,金融危机对国际贸易有显著影响且其影响具有滞后性。同时探讨了我国可以采取的对策。     

Solvency runs, sunspot runs, and international bailouts

This paper introduces a model of intervention by an international financial institution (IFI) under asymmetric information. The IFI is unable to distinguish between runs due to fundamentals and those which are the result of pure sunspots. However, it maximizes global welfare by offering a relending package consistent with generating a separating equilibrium, where voluntary creditor participation implies that underlying fundamentals are good. The need for direct IFI lending in the package is shown to depend on the commitment capacity of creditors. This adverse selection problem provides an alternative rationale for Bagehot's Principle of last-resort lending at high rates of interest to the moral hazard motivation commonly found in the literature.     

我国民办高校的危机与发展对策

我国民办高校起步晚、发展快,为我国高等教育发展做出了巨大贡献。但我国民办高校在取得巨大成就的背后也隐藏着发展的危机,主要体现在民办高校办学理念落后、办学质量低下、市场与生源竞争残酷、资金来源单一、政府扶持力度较小、外部政策环境不稳定以及社会偏见等方面。民办高校应适时转变办学观念,拓宽投资渠道、改变资金来源单一现状,改革...     

FORECASTING CURRENCY CRISES: WHICH METHODS SIGNALED THE SOUTH AFRICAN CRISIS OF JUNE 2006?

In this paper we test the ability of three of the most popular methods to forecast South African currency crises with a special emphasis on their out‐of‐sample performance. We choose the latest crisis of June 2006 to conduct an out‐of‐sample experiment. The results show that the signals approach was not able to forecast the out‐of‐sample crisis correctly; the probit approach was able to predict the crisis but only with models, that were based on raw data. The Markov‐regime‐switching approach predicts the out‐of‐sample crisis well. However, the results are not straightforward. In‐sample, the probit models performed remarkably well and were also able to detect, at least to some extent, out‐of‐sample currency crises before their occurrence. The recommendation is to not restrict the forecasting to only one approach.     

Imagining the European Economy: 'Competitiveness' and the Social Construction of 'Europe' as an Economic Space

This article analyses the political and ideological agency of an emergent European transnational capitalist class in the socioeconomic governance of the European Union (EU) by examining the case of the European Round Table of Industrialists (ERT). It seeks to show that the ERT‐as an elite forum mediating the interests and power of the most transnationalise d segments of European capital‐has played a significant role in shaping European governance in as much as it has successfully articulated and promoted ideas and concepts thathave at critical times set the political agenda and, beyond, have helped to shape the discourse within which European policy making is embedded. Here, the increasingly neoliberal orientation of the ERT reflects, and at the same time is a constitutive element within, the construction of a new European order in which governance is geared to serve the interests of a globalising transnational capitalist elite, and hence the exigencies of global 'competitiveness'. Although in recent years some detailed work has been done on the role of the ERT in the internal market programme, there has as yet been little attention paid to (and thus interpretation of) the content of the ideas promoted by the ERT and hence to the ideological power that this forum of transnational capitalists exercises. The article is divided into four main parts. The first briefly elaborates the theoretical framework that informs my analysis. Drawing upon what has come to be labelled the 'neo-Gramscian school' in International Relations (IR), I willadvance a historical materialist understanding of the dynamics of European integration, emphasising in particular the role of transnational social forces‐as engendered by the capitalist production process‐in the political and ideological struggles over European order. The second part introduces the case of the European Round Table. I will claim that the ERT is neither a simple business lobby nor a corporatist interest association, but must rather be interpreted as having developed into an elite platform for an emergent European transnational capitalist class from which it can formulate a common strategy and‐on the basis of that strategy‐seek to shape European socioeconomic governance through its privileged access to the European institutions. It is this latter role of the ERT that will be the focus of the final two parts. As such, the third presents an analysis of the evolution of ERT's strategic project and the initiating role the Round Table played in the relaunching of the integration process from Europe 1992 to Maastricht. Following this, the fourth part will analyse the ideological orientation and strategic outlook of today's Round Table and its current role in shaping what I will call the neoliberal discourse of competitiveness which, I argue, increasingly underpins European governance.     

基于生命周期理论的创新型组织的内生风险管理

组织是具有生命特征的开放式人造系统,组织的成长具有和生物类似的生命周期特征,对创新型组织来说,生命周期的各个阶段所面临的风险是不相同的,同一形式的风险在组织生命周期各个阶段过程中对组织的影响程度也是不相同的。本文试图对创新型组织在生命周期各个阶段所面临的风险进行识别和定义,分析生命周期过程中所要面临的技术风险、组织风险、管理风险,提出建议使得创新型组织把有限的风险控制资源投入到对风险的控制上去,促使其更快更好发展。     

企业财务危机及其规避

在竞争激烈的市场经济条件下，企业发生财务危机是客观存在的，其原因是由融资、资金回收、资产跌价、投资及利润分配等多种不确定的因素引起的。企业经营者通过提高财务危机的早期识别能力，事先做好财务规划，建立财务危机预警系统等措施，才能规避财务危机造成的损失。     

Liquidity,bank runs,and fire sales under local thinking

We examine the implications on banking crises when markets are populated by agents that neglect tail risks and form expectations conditioned on a favorable subset of possible states of the economy. We find that optimal bank liquidity is lower than would be the case under rational expectations, and, consequently, the banking system is more vulnerable to adverse shocks, which lead to bank runs. Asset pledgeability of surviving banks is also affected so that their capacity to raise external funds for purchasing assets of distressed banks is weakened. Further, we examine the case when asset returns are correlated through securitization. In this case adverse shocks are felt uniformly across the banking sector and banks that survive with the help of a public liquidity backstop will become risk-averse and reluctant to purchase distressed assets. Finally, we explore a government funded asset purchase program, that is implemented with an asset price target.