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31.
This paper develops a model of banking fragility driven by aggregate liquidity shortages. Inefficiencies arise from a failure of the interbank market to smooth the available liquidity in such a shortage. We find that a standard lender of last resort policy is ineffective in restoring efficiency as it leads to offsetting changes in the banks’ supply of liquidity. In contrast, subsidizing the purchase of assets from troubled banks increases welfare by improving the banks’ liquidity holdings. The first best, however, is achieved by redistributing existing liquidity from healthy to troubled banks in a crisis. 相似文献
32.
姜爱林 《无锡商业职业技术学院学报》2009,9(4):7-11
1900年以来,全世界先后发生了1929-1933年、1997-1998年、2008年等三次代表性的国际金融危机。这三次代表性国际金融危机危机在影响范围大小、持续时间长短、产生原因、表现特点、演变阶段、影响程度等方面,既有相同点,但也有许多不同之处。 相似文献
33.
In the dynamic model of banking, a bank's option to hide its loan losses by rolling over non-performing loans is shown to worsen moral hazard. Contrary to the classic theory, moral hazard may arise even when a bank cannot seek a correlated risk for its loans. The loans seem to be performing and the bank makes a profit although it is de facto insolvent. When the bank's balance sheet includes hidden non-performing loans, the bank may optimally shrink lending or gamble for resurrection by growing aggressively. To eliminate this type of moral hazard, which is broadly consistent with evidence from emerging economies, a few regulatory implications are suggested. 相似文献
34.
35.
Kraay [Kraay, A., 2003. Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? Journal of International Economics 59, 297-321.] documents the lack of any systematic association between monetary policy and the outcome of a speculative attack. This paper revisits Kraay's work and modifies it by introducing an improved measure of monetary policy and an additional country-specific fundamental, short-term corporate debt, to capture balance sheet vulnerabilities emphasized by the recent currency crises literature. The results show that for low levels of short-term corporate debt, raising interest rates lowers the probability of a successful attack. This effect decreases and eventually reverses for higher levels of debt. These findings contrast earlier empirical evidence and imply a fundamental reconsideration of the role of monetary policy during currency crises. 相似文献
36.
预测央行脆弱性的VaR模型 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文旨在研究可将两代货币危机模型有机地结合在一起的用于预测央行脆弱性的VaR模型,这一模型为央行提供了一个预警指标,同时也为市场参与者提供了一个判断央行是否具有偿付能力的依据。 相似文献
37.
Guillaume Vuillemey 《Journal of Economic Methodology》2014,21(2):125-138
This article presents the epistemological and conceptual foundations on which current attempts to model crises and assess financial risks are based. It draws a distinction between two research programs, in Lakatos' sense: on the one hand, crises understood as structural events within a cycle; on the other hand, crises seen as statistical tail events. The methodological, theoretical and practical consequences of such a dichotomy are exposed. A crucial difference lies in the assumptions about change in the causal processes generating economic outcomes, especially asset returns. Furthermore, this article insists on providing conceptual definitions of key terms that have distinct meanings within the two research programs. 相似文献
38.
We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970–2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to GDP is a significant crisis predictor. This is primarily due to the net position in debt instruments—the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem, if anything, an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction; ii) the current account is a powerful predictor; iii) foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings; and iv) a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in- and out-of-sample. The latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises sensu stricto. 相似文献
39.
Augusto Hasman 《Journal of economic surveys》2013,27(5):978-995
The recent financial crisis has focused the attention of scholars and policymakers on how to improve financial stability through better macro‐prudential regulation and supervision. In this paper, we compare the existing theoretical and empirical literature on contagion through the banking system. It is argued that the structure of the interbank market, the size of banks, the linkages among them, the level of correlation of their investments and the transparency of the regulator are key factors in determining the possibility of contagion. We discuss the different findings and present avenues for future research. 相似文献
40.
Bruno P. Arruda 《Applied economics》2013,45(36):5031-5045
In this article, we test the hypothesis of contagion amongst sectors within the United States’ economy during the subprime crisis. The econometric methodology applied here is based on the dynamic conditional correlation model proposed by Engle (2002). Further, we applied several Lagrange multiplier (LM)-robust tests to test whether there were structural breaks in series’ dependency structures during the period of interest. Events theoretically classified as relevant to the crisis upshots as well as the interactions between the moments of the series were used as indicator functions to the referred structural breaks. The main conclusion of this study is that one can indeed observe contagion within almost all pairs of sectors’ indices. Thus, we conclude that the dependency structure of the sectors of interest has faced structural changes during the years of 2007 and 2008. Hence, diversification strategies as well as the risk analysis inherent to the portfolios’ management may have been drastically affected. 相似文献