Some Parallels Between Currency and Banking Crises

There is a sizeable literature on the causes of speculative attacks on fixed exchange rates and a large literature on the determinants of bank runs. Surprisingly, these two literatures rarely overlap, even though both types of crises involve attacks on asset price-fixing schemes. This paper draws a number of parallels between the work on currency crises and the work on banking crises and examines some of the new insights that are coming out of a more integrated approach in the aftermath of the Asian financial crises.     

企业危机与管理舞弊的相关性研究

文章选取因年报存在管理舞弊而被证监会会处罚的上市公司为研究样本,按照一定的配比原则选取了配比样本,并计算了行业平均水平,对企业和管理舞弊之间的相关关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,企业危机与管理舞弊高度相关。此外,主营业务毛利率、总资产收益率等指标能够显著识     

国际金融危机的启示和反思

美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机,根源在于以华尔街为首的美欧金融体系违反了金融业3个基本原则：植根于工商产业,严格管控风险,杠杆率适度。我国金融体系要防止5个趋势：政策过度叠加,增加企业融资成本,“老大”意识蔓延,收入过高,服务意识不强。规避危机要力求4个平衡：贷款余额与GDP大体1∶1,证券市场市值与GDP大体1∶1,房地产总市值与GDP大体1∶1,国家主权债务加上社会保障支出与GDP大体1∶1。化解金融危机,不能依靠金融业自我循环,而要靠科技进步和发展实体经济。     

Tax and the Crisis*

Did taxation play any role in precipitating the financial crisis? Are there lessons to be drawn for future tax reform priorities? This paper reviews the main channels by which tax effects might have been felt and which may require forceful attention. These include in particular the large tax biases favouring debt finance and, in some countries, investment in housing. The complexities of national tax codes, and the international interaction between them, have, moreover, encouraged the use of complicated financial instruments and international tax planning, reducing transparency. Tax distortions did not cause the crisis – in the sense that there are no obvious tax changes likely to have triggered it – but they may well have contributed by leading to higher leverage and more complexity than would otherwise have been the case. Most of these distortions have long been a source of concern, but dealing with them may be more important than previously supposed.     

Financial globalization, financial crises and contagion

Two observations suggest that financial globalization played an important role in the recent financial crisis. First, more than half of the rise in net borrowing of the U.S. non-financial sectors since the mid-1980s has been financed by foreign lending. Second, the collapse of the U.S. housing and mortgage-backed-securities markets had worldwide effects on financial institutions and asset markets. Using an open-economy model where financial intermediaries play a central role, we show that financial integration leads to a sharp rise in net credit in the most financially developed country and to large asset price spillovers of country-specific shocks to bank capital. The impacts of these shocks on asset prices are amplified by bank capital requirements based on mark-to-market.     

中国区际公共卫生服务水平差异的变化:运用泰尔指数的测度方法

缩小因地区差异导致的公共卫生服务水平差距,对我国统筹区域社会经济发展、构建和谐社会具有重要意义.基于我国地区间公共卫生服务差异化的现实,本文运用泰尔指数对中国公共卫生服务水平的均等化问题进行了实证分析,结果表明三大区域虽然非均等化在不同程度上存在,但近几年地区之间的差异总体上有所缩小.并提出了新时期我国公共卫生服务均等化和财政体制改革的建议,为构建公共卫生资源在地区间的和谐分配、推进公共卫生服务均等化战略提供一个理论和政策的有力支撑.     

应对金融危机的税收政策评价与思考

为了减少金融危机的冲击,各国纷纷采取税收政策来刺激经济。从实施情况看,各国主要是以凯恩斯理论为指导进行税收政策的调整。尽管程度不一,侧重点也有所差别,但主要是在所得税上做文章,再辅之以流转税的微调。由于我国经济基础和发达国家不同,不能简单地将凯恩斯的短期分析方法拿来应对长期性问题,需要平衡以应急为目标的基础设施投资刺激与促进消费增长为目标的结构调整。因此,我国税收政策的能量应该释放到有利于改革和结构转换的方向上来,具体可从降低税收增速、调整税制结构、进行分税制税收管理体制改革、加强非税收入管理等方面着手。     

流动性冲击的传导机制

流动性可以从市场流动性、融资流动性、资产负债表流动性和流动性需求四个维度来分析。四个维度的相互作用形成了流动性传导的五种机制——借款者的资产负债效应、信贷紧缩效应、对金融机构的挤兑效应、信用传染效应和对不确定性的规避效应。五种传导机制使单个流动性冲击演变为系统性的流动性冲击,将证券市场的流动性冲击传导到其他金融市场,并相互强化形成了流动性的循环。为了防止或减少流动性危机对经济金融的影响,既要提高单个金融机构应对流动性冲击的能力,也要改善金融市场的基础设施。必要时中央银行应向市场注入流动性以增强市场信心。     

欧洲主权债务危机给我国商业银行带来的机遇与挑战

本文对以希腊主权债务问题为代表的新一轮欧洲主权债务危机进行了专题研究,辩证地分析了危机给我国商业银行发展带来的挑战与机遇,并对下一步应采取的措施与转变等提出了相应的政策性建议。     

美欧金融危机中CDS泡沫形成的原因与影响以及相关风险管理问题的思考

2007年以来的国际金融危机中,大规模的CDS合约交易起到了推波助澜的作用,放大了实际风险。然而,也不能完全否定CDS产品在促进金融衍生品市场繁荣,尤其是有效对冲风险中的重要作用。目前,国内已出现了引入CDS的相关研究。本文以欧美危机为鉴,就完善COS市场监管,以及国内引入CDS类似的产品后如何把握好金融监管与市场繁荣之间的平衡进行了相关思考,以期及早进行相应的制度设计,实现市场的良性发展。