基于主成分分析的多元线性回归用水量模型研究——以安徽省为例

用水量的准确预测对水资源规划具有重要意义。根据统计资料,选取了八项主要影响用水量变化的指标。按照主成分分析法原理,运用少数综合因子对影响用水量变化的原有八项指标进行了综合和简化,并研究其贡献率及综合效应;分析了用水量增长的特点,选用Logistic方程对综合因子进行回归分析;结合多元线性回归方法,建立了安徽省用水量模型;拟合结果表明,模型具有较高的精度;运用该模型,对安徽省2010年的用水量进行了预测;为水资源规划与管理提供参考依据。     

太阳能光伏产业可持续发展理论研究思考

从太阳能光伏产业发展出发,结合产业组织理论与可持续发展理论,提出太阳能光伏产业可持续发展理论研究体系,包括太阳能光伏产业可持续发展的基本内涵、资源配置、理论模式、运行机制等;我国太阳能光伏产业发展的物质基础、技术基础、现状、障碍及风险预测预警机制;从核心竞争力、核心技术研发及全球化等方面实现我国太阳能光伏产业可持续发展战略路径选择。太阳能光伏产业可持续发展理论的研究,对深化再生能源健康发展、规范可再生能源市场、保障能源安全、丰富产业经济学与能源经济学具有重要的理论与实践价值。     

Can innovation shocks determine CO2 emissions (CO2e) in the OECD economies? A new perspective

ABSTRACT

This study has attempted to address prior knowledge gaps in the environmental economics literature by integrating the innovation shocks into the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) equation for twenty-six OECD economies using data from 1990 to 2014. Foreign direct investment (FDI), exports (EXP), renewable energy consumption (REC), and GDP per capita were included as control variables. The results from multiple empirical analyses indicated that positive shocks to innovation improve, but the negative shocks disrupt environmental quality. Data analyses also showed that a positive correlation exists between income per capita of OECD economies. From the negative coefficient of income per capita (squared) and the existence of a negative nexus between FDI and CO2e, both the EKC and the Pollution Halo Hypothesis (PHH) were confirmed in sampled economies, respectively. The paper offers empirical support for the favourable impacts of REC on the quality of the environment and calls for the adoption of innovation shocks as a policy instrument to formulate better environmental policies for a sustainable future.     

从我国能源消费现状看建设资源节约型社会的必要性和紧迫性

本文根据大量最新统计资料，详细分析了我国的能源消费现状以及国际能源市场的最新变化，指出了我国建设资源节约型社会的必要性和紧迫性。针对建设资源节约型社会在能源领域的实现途径．本文随后给出了若干政策建议。     

清洁发展机制及其对我国可再生能源发电的启示

清洁发展机制（CDM）是近几年来国际社会的热门话题，本文从走循环经济道路和建立环境友好型社会出发，结合清洁发展机制，从各方面分析了我国可再生能源发电的现状和CDM项目的市场潜力及优势。进而根据目前我国CDM项目的开发情况分别从微观和宏观两个层面提出了一些建议，如选择合适的融资方式、强化政策体系的建设与创新、提高国际谈判能力和建立CDM联系机制等。     

收入差距、位置消费与社会稳定

适度、合理的收入差距,不仅是激励人们竞争,促进发展的重要务件,也是位置消费产生的基本条件;但过分悬殊的收入差距则不仅会影响人们的社会心理,不利于提高有效消费,而且可能产生畸形的位置消费行为,甚至会因此影响社会的稳定.在分析和研究目前收入分配问题时,应当从位置消费的新视角研究它们对社会稳定的影响.研究位置消费有利于我们从人们相互比较的满意度中观察改革的效果,权衡各项利弊得失,并及时地采取微调措施,尽可能地减少改革的摩擦和阻力.     

不确定性情况下的居民资产组合行为与中国金融结构变迁

转轨经济的一个显著特点是各项制度不断变化,制度变迁带来的不确定性对居民资产选择行为产生重要影响,进而影响和决定了金融结构的形成与变迁.     

需求势能理论在多级物流网络预选点中的应用

针对分销物流网络的特点,提出了基于服务时限的多级物流网络选址问题和选点思路,应用需求势能理论建立了多网点选址数学模型,并提出了详尽的求解方法和步骤。最后通过医药分销物流网络系统的实例分析,说明了该方法在网络选点过程中的模型化方法和求解步骤。     

The hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth in Asian countries - evidence using an asymmetric cointegration approach

ABSTRACT

This study examines the four commonly tested hypotheses in hydroelectricity consumption – economic growth literature for 12 Asian countries. Our results from a recently developed hidden cointegration technique uncover rich and significant relationships between negative and positive components of the variables under consideration. In particular, we find evidence to support the neutrality hypothesis in five countries (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, and Thailand), the growth hypothesis in four countries (India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan), and both growth and conservation hypotheses in three countries (China, Malaysia, and New Zealand). These findings suggest that appropriate economic policies should be elaborated on the basis of the country’s specific hydroelectricity consumption–growth nexus. Finally, our new evidence suggests that the lack of stable relationship between hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth documented in previous studies for some of these countries could be due to the failure to properly account for the nonlinearity property in the data.     

Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Convergence

This paper empirically investigates the development of cross-country differences in energy- and labour productivity. The analysis is performed at a detailed sectoral level for 14 OECD countries, covering the period 1970–1997. A σ-convergence analysis reveals that the development over time of the cross-country variation in productivity performance differs across sectors as well as across different levels of aggregation. Both patterns of convergence as well as divergence are found. Cross-country variation of productivity levels is typically larger for energy than for labour. A β-convergence analysis provides support for the hypothesis that in most sectors lagging countries tend to catch up with technological leaders, in particular in terms of energy productivity. Moreover, the results show that convergence is conditional, meaning that productivity levels converge to country-specific steady states. Energy prices and wages are shown to positively affect energy- and labour-productivity growth, respectively. We also find evidence for the importance of economies of scale, whereas the investment share, openness and specialization play only a modest role in explaining cross-country variation in energy- and labour-productivity growth.