On equitable social welfare functions satisfying the Weak Pareto Axiom: A complete characterization

The present paper examines the problem of aggregating infinite utility streams with a social welfare function that respects the Anonymity and Weak Pareto Axioms. The paper provides a complete characterization of domains (of the one period utilities) on which such an aggregation is possible. A social welfare function satisfying the Anonymity and Weak Pareto Axioms exists on precisely those domains that do not contain any set of the order type of the set of positive and negative integers. The criterion is applied to decide on possibility and impossibility results for a variety of domains. It is also used to provide an alternative formulation of the characterization result in terms of the accumulation points of the domain.     

挤扩支盘灌注桩技术及其应用研究

挤扩支盘灌注桩是最新的一种土建施工方法,为了能够很好地推广应用此方法,文章首先对分析了挤扩支盘灌注桩的结构模型和其形成机理,其次对其桩身的受力原理进行了详细分析,然后结合施工案例得出了挤扩支盘灌注桩在施工过程中的注意要点和挤扩支盘灌注桩的优点。     

How do institutional market players matter in farmland pricing?

In this paper we analyse how institutional sellers within the privatisation process shape price formation in agricultural land markets by taking the German reunification as an example. These institutions sell the formerly state owned land within first-price sealed bid auctions, publish calls and obtained prices, and are hypothesised to exploit their market power. Based on the conceptual framework of hedonic pricing models, we use a spatio-temporal modelling approach to empirically quantify these impacts. We thereby control for land productivity characteristics, potential buyers and whether farmers purchase the land. We find that privatisation agencies sell at significantly higher prices, while one agency sells at lower prices to farmers.     

Effectiveness of harvest strategies in achieving multiple management objectives in a multispecies fishery

Fisheries management is characterised by multiple objectives, some of which may be complementary, while others may require trade‐offs between outcomes. Balancing these objectives is made more complex in the case of multispecies and multigear fisheries. In this paper, we develop a bioeconomic model that captures the key elements of such a fishery to test a range of potential harvest strategies to provide insights into how economic target reference points could lead to both desirable and undesirable management outcomes (e.g. discards). The model is developed as a long‐run optimisation model to identify target reference points to achieve multispecies maximum economic yield, and a dynamic recursive optimisation model, which includes more realistic representation of fishers’ behaviour, such as discards and trading of under‐caught species quotas. The potential economic, social and ecological impacts are evaluated using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The results suggest that the use of proxy target reference points can result in short‐term economic benefits at the cost of slower stock recovery and higher discarding. Limiting the number of species subject to quota controls may also prove beneficial in multispecies fisheries, while ensuring quota markets are efficient is likely to produce benefits irrespective of the harvest strategy adopted.     

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model, which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for hierarchical and for Minnesota-type priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.     

对框架结构高层建筑梁柱节点的施工技术探讨

在高层建筑施工中,框架结构的节点是联系整个结构体系的枢纽,节点承受由梁端和柱端传递来的各种荷载的共同作用且受力复杂。因此,节点要求具有足够的强度,以保证整个结构体系的安全可靠。本文针对框架节点处理技术的基础理论及在施工中的应用问题进行探讨,并提出应注意的几个问题。以期通过本文的阐述对促进高层建筑施工质量,提高施工进度提供理论支持。     

冷却管在大体积混凝土中的应用

文章结合工程实践,对大体积混凝土温度裂缝产生的描述,通过对大体积混凝土内部温度计算,增设冷却管降温措施,总结出大体积混凝土冷却管的设计与施工的施工要点。     

A useful tool for forecasting the Euro-area business cycle phases

Based on a novel extension of existing multivariate Markov-switching models, we provide the reader with a useful tool for analyzing current business conditions and making predictions about the future state of the Euro-area economy in real time. Apart from the Industrial Production Index, we find that the European Commission Industrial Confidence Indicator, which is issued with no delay, is very useful for constructing the real-time predictions.     

A reference-dependent representation with subjective tastes

Experimental and empirical evidence documents instances where the presence of an inferior option in a menu increases the attractiveness of the better options from that menu and thus distorts the normative ranking across menus. We analyze the case when in addition to this so called context-effects bias there is also a concern for flexibility, in the spirit of the literature initiated by Kreps (1979) and Dekel et al. (2001). Since the context-effects bias and the desire for flexibility both increase the inclination of a decision maker to choose larger menus, our analysis allows the disentangling of the effect of the behavioral bias from the effect of the rational desire from flexibility. We find a weak condition on the set of ex post preferences under which the two effects are identifiable. We show that our representation is essentially unique. From a methodological viewpoint, our paper provides a novel technique of identifying probabilities on the state space of subjective uncertainty introduced by Dekel et al. (2001) when this state space is infinite. This method renders the infinite state space essentially finite with respect to a certain salient property.     

Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs.