玉米期货价格的波动分析

本文基于玉米期货价格数据,运用ARCH类模型和马尔科夫机制转换模型分析玉米期货价格的波动规律和特征。研究表明,玉米期货价格存在一阶ARCH效应和＂杠杆效应＂,玉米期货价格收益率具有显著的波动集簇性;TARCH和EGARCH模型估计结果,玉米市场中价格上涨信息引发的波动比价格下跌信息引发的波动要大,玉米价格波动具有显著的非对称性。我国玉米期货价格确实存在马尔科夫机制转换;在样本研究期间,我国玉米期货价格存在比较明显的三个上涨和下跌阶段,在波动中保持上涨趋势。     

Impact Fees and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from 35 Chinese Cities

Local governments often charge developers impact fees to finance local public goods. This has been practiced in Chinese cities for more than two decades; however, no empirical studies have tested the effect of impact fees on real estate prices. Using a panel data set for 35 large- and medium-sized cities from 1998 to 2008, we find that impact fees lead to a significant increase in real estate prices. For a given city, an increase in impact fees by one yuan leads to an increase of about 5 yuan in the price of newly-built housing; a 1% increase in impact fees leads to an increase of 5 percentage points in the housing price index and 7 percentage points in the land price index.     

价格鉴证风险及应对的初步分析

价格鉴证作为社会主义市场经济活动中的重要内容,对于保障社会经济的健康运行发挥着重要的作用。价格鉴证人员作为价格鉴证工作的主要承担者,为价格鉴证工作的发展做出了重大贡献,但也面临着一系列潜在的危险。从价格鉴证风险的产生与发展角度出发,对应对价格鉴证风险提供相应的政策建议。     

Generating Enhanced Fishery Rents by Internalizing Product Quality Characteristics

This paper demonstrates howadditional rents are generated in a fisherycharacterized by intraseasonal variation infish characteristics, including size,condition, and composition. Based on anexpanded conceptual model of the optimalharvest rule, fish characteristics affect preand post harvest production yields and outputprices. A dynamic empirical model, which uses asystem of quality characteristics and anhedonic equation, illustrates the complexrelationships and management choices associatedwith internalizing seafood qualitycharacteristics in a hake fishery. The modelretains the regulated open access managementsystem, but controls intertemporal andintersectoral quotas, production portfolios,and total allowable catch. Results demonstratethat including revenue-side effects frominternalizing fish quality can generatesignificantly greater rents and reduce therelative benefits of increased productionyields. If excluded, bioeconomic models canunderestimate the level of regulatory rentdissipation and overemphasize managementobjectives such as full utilization, whichcould misdirect processing decisions and resultin a suboptimal resource management plan.Implications for data collection,multidisciplinary analysis, and improvements inmarine resource management are discussed.     

Utility Regulation and Risk Allocation: The Roles of Marginal Cost Pricing and Futures Markets

The effects on consumer welfare of requiring a utility facing cost or demand risk to use either a fixed retail price or marginal cost pricing are assessed. With marginal cost pricing and cost volatility an efficient futures market allows consumer welfare to be at least as high in every state as with the fixed price. With demand risk marginal cost pricing can benefit the consumer in every state without harming the firm if the profit difference is transferred to the consumer. A futures market can act as a partial replacement for the transfer.     

Ambiguous Social Welfare Effects of Price Regulation Under Imperfect Competition

Conventional wisdom is that a binding price ceiling increases output and so increases social welfare if imposed on an imperfectly competitive market. However, this paper shows that a price ceiling can be harmful to social welfare even though it increases industry output and consumer surplus. This model can be applied to the pharmaceutical industry under price control in many countries, e.g., U.K., Canada, Germany and Japan.     

双边市场、不完全信息与二级价格歧视

本文研究了双边市场二级价格歧视问题。本文构建了包括广告商、消费者、垄断平台在内的两阶段博弈模型,研究了在最优与次优情况下平台的定价机制,分析了二级价格歧视对平台利润、社会福利等的影响。研究表明:(1)"顶部无扭曲"或"底部无扭曲"并不严格成立;(2)平台对观众提供的节目质量、广告插播量均可能出现类型逆转的情况;(3)二级价格歧视会增加社会总福利;(4)"会员制"是平台可能的占优定价机制之一。     

媒体情绪与房价波动

本文使用2000—2015年中国112个大中城市媒体报道和房价月度指数研究了媒体异质性对房价波动的影响。研究发现,纸媒情绪对房价波动的影响大于网媒情绪,中央媒体情绪对房价波动的影响大于地方媒体情绪,明星微博情绪对房价波动的影响大于普通微博情绪,媒体语气确定性和报道篇幅对房价波动有正影响,明星城市媒体情绪较非明星城市更易引起房价波动。据此,为防范非理性房价波动,应加强对不同媒体报道的监管。     

美国官方OFHEO房价指数探析

美国OFHEO房价指数作为由美国官方权威机构发布的季度房价指数,在美国房地产业具有广泛的影响力。本文对其发展渊源与运行机理进行介绍与探讨,以期为中国房地产指数的相应研究提供借鉴。     

Theory Analysis of Model for Price Fluctuations in a Single Commodity Market

The price model for a single commodity market is a very important economic model that describes the basic rules for price fluctuations in a single commodity market. In this paper, we investigated the general case for the model, and proved that every positive solution is bounded and we obtained a necessary and sufficient condition for oscillation of every positive solution concerning positive state solution.