Business cycles in Italy: A statistical investigation

This paper conducts a statistical analysis of post-war economic fluctuations in Italy. It is argued that business cycles in this country qualitatively conform to the general character of the phenomenon, a result which confirms existing evidence. A temporal stability analysis of stylized facts shows that some statistically significant changes in the empirical regularities occurred after 1973, but they did not alter the main qualitative features of the business cycle. The evidence thus supports interpretative models of the Italian business cycle which incorporate a stable propagation mechanism.     

家族式治理对公司理财行为的影响机制研究

家族企业已经越来越受到人们的重视。在现有文献的基础上,论文以所有权和控制权为两维对家族企业做了严格的定义和划分,并把研究对象界定在拥有高控制权的家族式企业。通过将家族式治理和公司理财分析范式结合分析,家族式治理中的网络式组织结构、封闭式的股权结构和作为家族意愿体现的董事会治理机制对家族企业理财行为产生影响。家族式治理对公司理财行为产生正面影响,但由于其自身的局限性和家族企业所处环境的变化,家族式理财必须进行变革:非家族化的理财方式变革,家族规则与现代市场游戏规则的融合,引入有效专家理财制度,以及对家族式理财的扬弃。     

美国证券市场兴衰的非理性因素剖析

美国股市泡沫的膨胀和崩溃，无法完全用传统的金融理论和各种定价模型来说明，一些非理性因素对股市泡沫的形成和膨胀也有着重要的甚至决定的作用。从上世纪美国发生的四次股灾说明，非理性预期是股市泡沫形成的基础，其推动机制是庞氏骗局效应。此外，一些社会心理和行为，突发事件和随机因素，都对股市的兴衰起着推波助澜的作用。     

准确定位科学决策创新工厂物流

介绍了东风汽车有限公司商用车重型车厂引进新理念,导入新方法,学以致用,改善作业效率,提高制造能力,构建和谐节约型工厂物流的实践,并指出了其创新工厂物流取得的效果与存在的问题和今后的发展方向.     

The shading and distancing of commerce: When internalization is not enough

A political economy of degradation and of sustainability should account not only for the full range of production costs but the sources of those costs. It should consider how the pursuit of wealth can, deliberately or not, lead to uncounted costs and unaccountable actors. This article explores the conditions of cost generation and externalization, especially those that are largely unintended and inadvertent. It shows how the pursuit of wealth, the expansion of markets, the mobility of capital, and the entanglements of production processes can lead to the unwitting generation and displacement of costs. It analyzes competitive business strategy and patterns of production and consumption for their contribution to such costs. Business strategy and state policy tend to create a never-ending search for frontiers, however simulated and however unecological they may be. The costs generated in those frontiers are a function of shading, that is, obscuring of costs, and distancing, the separation of production and consumption decisions, both of which impede ecological and social feedback and create cognitive, institutional, and ethical lags between initial benefits and eventual full costs. As distance increases along dimensions of geography, culture, bargaining power, or agency, negative feedback loops are severed, stakeholders expand while decision making contracts, environmental problems are displaced, and shading and cost externalization increase. The likelihood of sustainable resource use increases as distance is lowered, as institutions locate decision authority in those who receive negative ecological feedback and who have the capacity and incentives to act on that feedback, and as the burden of proof for economic interventions shifts to the interveners.     

企业集团的价值创造与协同效应的实现机制

企业集团这种组织形式的存在和演进是备受学术界关注的问题.本文从价值创造角度,对企业集团的成员企业异质性、协同效应的特殊性进行了深入分析,进一步明确了企业集团的存在本质.本文认为,基于企业异质性基础上的协同效应的实现是企业集团的形成和演进的根本,企业集团的协同效应有着自身特殊的生成机理,它既要在附属企业层面得到体现,更要在集团总部实现进一步的价值创造.本文还从实践层面分析了国内外企业集团的差距,并就我国企业集团的发展战略提出了几点建议.     

非均衡的经济动态模型

本文旨在按现实世界的本来面目建立一个非均衡的内生经济动态模型。在这个模型中 ,源于部门内和部门间关系的内生变量导致资本市场、消费品市场上产量和价格的波动。市场的非均衡过程、存货调节机制以及经济人的最优行为和适应性行为是基于对现实世界的观察进行模拟的。静态性质及其稳定性是作为一般市场动态过程的特例加以讨论的。     

Seasonality and Markov switching in an unobserved component time series model

It is generally acknowledged that the growth rate of output, the seasonal pattern, and the business cycle are best estimated simultaneously. To achieve this, we develop an unobserved component time series model for seasonally unadjusted US GDP. Our model incorporates a Markov switching regime to produce periods of expansion and recession, both of which are characterized by different underlying growth rates. Although both growth rates are time-varying, they are assumed to be cointegrated. The analysis is Bayesian, which fully accounts for all sources of uncertainty. Comparison with results from a similar model for seasonally adjusted data indicates that the seasonal adjustment of the data significantly alters several aspects of the full model. First Version Received: January 2001/Final Version Received: February 2002 Send offprint requests to: Rob Luginbuhl?Correspondence to: Rob Luginbuhl     

“新经济”与经济周期

20世纪 90年代 ,美国等西方发达国家进入了以知识经济为基础的“新经济”时代。“新经济”的发展的确使经济周期出现了一些与以往不同的新特点 ,但它没有也不可能从根本上消除经济周期本身。那种认为“新经济”可以消除经济周期的观点是没有现实依据的     

基于CAPM的中国股市羊群行为研究——兼与宋军、吴冲锋先生商榷

本文首先对宋军和吴冲锋的《基于股价分散度的金融市场羊群行为研究》一文进行了分析 ,指出其在分析方法和论证逻辑两方面存在的问题。随后 ,本文以资本资产定价模型 (CAPM)为基础 ,建立了一个更为灵敏的羊群行为检验模型 ,并据此对我国股市进行了实证检验。研究结果表明 :在政策干预频繁和信息不对称严重的市场环境下 ,我国股市存在一定程度的羊群行为 ,并导致系统风险在总风险中占有较大比例