Applicability of the M5 to Forecasting at Walmart

The M5 Forecasting Competition, the fifth in the series of forecasting competitions organized by Professor Spyros Makridakis and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center at the University of Nicosia, was an extremely successful event. This competition focused on both the accuracy and uncertainty of forecasts and leveraged actual historical sales data provided by Walmart. This has led to the M5 being a unique competition that closely parallels the difficulties and challenges associated with industrial applications of forecasting. Like its precursor the M4, many interesting ideas came from the results of the M5 competition which will continue to push forecasting in new directions.In this article we discuss four topics around the practitioners view of the application of the competition and its results to the actual problems we face. First, we examine the data provided and how it relates to common difficulties practitioners must overcome. Secondly, we review the relevance of the accuracy and uncertainty metrics associated with the competition. Third, we discuss the leading solutions and their implications to forecasting at a company like Walmart. We then close with thoughts about a future M6 competition and further enhancements that can be explored.     

To Justify or Not to Justify: The Role of Anticipated Regret on Consumers’ Decisions to Upgrade Technological Innovations

Prior research suggests that adoption decisions are primarily based on product features and experiential opportunities, like trial and observation. Our research follows inquiries that identify anticipated regret (AR) as an emotion integral to consumer decision making. Prior research and current retailing practice assume that AR can be alleviated by compelling product attribute-based rationales for immediate purchase. These rationales often take the form of direct attribute comparisons between the current best and the future technologies. Counter-intuitively, we find that giving consumers attribute-based justifications for immediate purchase produces a uniform level of AR and purchase delay regardless of the perceived rate of innovation (PRI). However, under conditions of low PRI and no justification, AR decreases significantly. A clear implication of our findings is that firms marketing current technology should not rush to provide consumers with justifications for immediate upgrade since such communications will remind consumers of what they might miss if they adopt now, resulting in increased AR and purchase delays. Instead, we suggest that retailers focus promotional efforts on highlighting the hedonic benefits consumers experience by adopting today.     

Configurations of business strategy and marketing channels for e-commerce and traditional retail formats: A Qualitative Comparison Analysis (QCA) in sporting goods retailing

This article applies a configurational approach to study the fit between retail format, business strategy, and multi-channel setup. Its empirical material consists of five case studies, and a data set of 74 sporting goods retailers in Sweden. Our results show that a retailer can create strategic advantages when its multi-channel setup fits with its business strategy, and that retail format is important for explaining differences in growth and profit, the former being assigned to e-commerce and the latter to physical stores. Moreover, the study reveals that to some extent online channels also have positive performance implications for physical store retailers.     

Exploring the elements of consumer nostalgia in retailing: Evidence from a content analysis of retailer collages

This article focuses on consumer nostalgia in the retailing environment to identify the types of nostalgic memories evoked by remembering a retailer and the elements associated with such nostalgic memories. A projective technique involving collage construction enabled informants to reflect their feelings about, memories of, experiences with, or relationships with a retailer that they have selected. The findings uncovered three distinct types of retailer-related consumer nostalgic memories and six elements that comprise retailer-related consumer nostalgic memories. The findings of the study offer a comprehensive understanding of retailer consumer nostalgia. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.     

Increasing Shopper Trust in Retailer Technological Interfaces via Auditory Confirmation

This research examines the effects of sounds made by retail technological interfaces – self-checkout kiosks, credit card readers, mobile apps, websites – at point-of-sale. We propose that such sounds, retail transaction auditory confirmation (RTAC), increase trust in technological interfaces by providing auditory confirmation that stages of the checkout process have been successfully executed. Increased trust in technological interfaces leads to positive downstream consequences in the form of satisfaction and purchase intention. Visual and auditory distraction in the retail environment reduces trust, even when visual confirmation is provided, but synchronously provided audio-visual confirmation attenuates the negative effects of environment distraction.     

Leading national brands facing store brands competition: Is price competitiveness the only thing that matters?

Store Brands (SBs) have experienced a strong increase in both value and unit sales internationally during the last decades; thus their market share has been constantly growing. Starting from these considerations, the present work aims at deepening the topic of inter-brand competition within the FMCG market and, in particular, the market share trade-off between Leading National Brands (LNBs) and Store Brands. Our empirical analysis is based on panel data about 322 product categories sold within the Modern Grocery Distribution stores in the 2010–2013 period. Results obtained show: (i) the existence of a relationship between the increase in the LNB-SB price gap and the switching of market share from the former towards the latter; (ii) the consolidation of a change in consumers' purchasing preference in favor of SBs; (iii) the existence of an inverse relationship between the inter-brand competition intensity and the retail branding life cycle evolutionary stage, which is different for each product category.     

Comparing perceived insecurity among customers and retail staff during service encounters

The study compares perceived insecurity by customers and retail staff during service encounters. The topic is important, because retailers invest millions of dollars in security. The framework of the study divides perceived insecurity into financial, physical, psychosocial and time-related insecurity. A total of 39 consumers participated in seven focus group discussions, and 34 retail staff members responded semi-structured interviews. The study confirms that from both customer and staff perspectives a high quality service encounter has an influence on perceived insecurity, and it diminishes disturbance and criminal activity. However, there are differences between customer and staff perspectives in many areas.     

Factors affecting donations in U.S. retail stores: A conceptual framework

The purpose of this study is to identify the factors that influence consumer donations in U.S. retail stores. The study provides a conceptual framework of factors derived from the cause-related marketing, consumer behavior and psychology literatures. These factors are categorized as consumer-related factors, retailer-related factors and context-related factors. Consumer-related factors include consumer-retailer identification, consumer-cause affinity, impure altruism, civic engagement and post-purchase cognitive dissonance. Retailer-related factors consist of retailer-cause fit, retailer's commitment to the cause, retailer image as being altruistic, and retailer credibility. Context-related factors include time pressure, social pressure, shopping amount, and perceived savings during the shopping trip. This conceptual framework serves as a foundation for future empirical studies.     

The eruption of Airbnb in tourist cities: Comparing spatial patterns of hotels and peer-to-peer accommodation in Barcelona

In recent years, what has become known as collaborative consumption has undergone rapid expansion through peer-to-peer (P2P) platforms. In the field of tourism, a particularly notable example is that of Airbnb. This article analyses the spatial patterns of Airbnb in Barcelona and compares them with hotels and sightseeing spots. New sources of data, such as Airbnb listings and geolocated photographs are used. Analysis of bivariate spatial autocorrelation reveals a close spatial relationship between Airbnb and hotels, with a marked centre-periphery pattern, although Airbnb predominates around the city's main hotel axis and hotels predominate in some peripheral areas of the city. Another interesting finding is that Airbnb capitalises more on the advantages of proximity to the city's main tourist attractions than does the hotel sector. Multiple regression analysis shows that the factors explaining location are also different for hotels and Airbnb. Finally, it was possible to detect those parts of the city that have seen the greatest increase in pressure from tourism related to Airbnb's recent expansion.     

How second-generation consumers choose where to shop: A cross-cultural semiotic analysis

Using ethnographic interviews and Greimasian semiotics, this study explores second-generation ethnic consumers’ perceptions of physical shopping environments from a cultural identity perspective. It reveals how second-generation ethnic consumers make decisions about where to shop for cosmetics. The key results reveal the identity dimensions of shopping behaviour that retail stores wanting to target second-generation ethnic consumers must take into consideration.