技术引进、金融发展与城乡居民收入差距

为了利用“后发优势”实现快速追赶,中国从发达国家引进技术以促进经济增长。但是,中国城市工业与农村农业的技术引进存在明显的非对称特征,城市技术进步要快于农村的技术进步。而且,为了配合技术快速引进,国家将金融资源也向城市部门倾斜,使得城乡金融发展水平差距也呈现出扩大的趋势。基于LSTR2模型的研究表明,中国的技术引进不平衡和金融发展差异对城乡收入差距影响具有非线性的特征：在总体上,技术进步差异和金融发展差异都扩大了城乡居民的收入差距,但金融发展差异的非线性部分对城乡收入差距有一定的缩小作用。     

Material Offshoring: Alternate Measures

Industry measures of offshoring of material inputs are often generated using the proportionality assumption applied to aggregate import data—that the import share of each commodity used in the production process for a particular industry is similar to the import share of a commodity for the total economy. This note compares estimates of offshoring for the Canadian manufacturing sector derived using this assumption to four alternatives: two measures that use direct measures of firm‐based imports, and two hybrid measures that use both input and import information. These indirect measures are compared to survey estimates that directly assess import intensity in the production process in an effort to evaluate which indirect method yields more reasonable offshoring measures.     

新兴市场后发企业逆向创新路径研究

作为一种全新的创新全球化扩散模式,逆向创新理论研究尚处于起步阶段。选取华为公司作为逆向创新研究案例,从技术和市场两大维度探讨其逆向创新发展模式,总结其可以复制推广的经验和做法,并提出新兴市场后发企业逆向创新路径与驱动力模型。在丰富并发展逆向创新理论的同时,也为中国企业特别是后发高科技企业提高创新能力以及加快国际化进程提供了借鉴与启示。     

Russian agriculture during Putin’s fourth term: a SWOT analysis

Russian agriculture is coming off a successful period under Minister Alexander Tkachev. Despite his successes, new agricultural leaders were named in May 2018 to guide agriculture during Putin’s fourth term. The article analyses the condition of and prospects for the agricultural sector during 2018–2024, using a SWOT framework (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats). The analysis examines four strengths, six weaknesses, four opportunities and three threats.     

OFDI逆向技术溢出、制度质量与区域创新能力

基于2005—2016年我国省际面板数据,首先通过OLS、DIFF GMM、SYS GMM3种基准线性回归方法论证了OFDI逆向技术溢出对我国区域创新能力的促进作用。以OFDI为核心解释变量,分别构建以地区腐败、市场化程度和知识产权保护为门槛变量的动态门槛回归模型。结果发现：随着地区腐败程度加深,我国区域创新能力逐渐减弱;以市场化程度、知识产权保护为门槛变量,跨越门槛点后OFDI对我国区域创新能力的拉动作用依次增强。最后,结合面板向量自回归模型进一步研究对外直接投资过程中地区腐败、市场化程度和知识产权保护对区域创新能力的动态即期冲击。结果显示:市场化程度单位变动对区域创新能力的影响呈现正向冲击且持续性较强,知识产权保护对区域创新能力的拉动最为迅速但后期持续性较弱,地区腐败对区域创新能力产生负向冲击作用。     

Non‐Reciprocal Trade Preferences and the Role of Compliance Costs in the Agricultural Sector: Exports to the EU

We investigate whether non‐reciprocal preferential regimes granted by the European Union have an impact on agricultural export flows from beneficiary countries while accounting for the costs of compliance that may prevent exporters from taking full advantage of potential benefits. Compliance costs are heterogeneous and difficult to measure. We proxy their influence and specify a model that allows for a different preferential margin impact according to the proxy costs. Adopting the gravity framework and using a sample of 554 lines of agricultural products for 131 developing countries in 2002, we find that the costs of compliance play a role in making the schemes work: the lower the costs, the greater the impact of the preferential margins. Moreover, the estimated margin effect differs between different regimes.     

The growing importance of the former USSR countries in world agricultural markets

The major countries of the former Soviet Union—specifically Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan—are becoming increasingly important in world agricultural markets. The two main developments are that this region has become a large grain exporter, especially of wheat and barley, and Russia a big agricultural importer, especially of meat. These trends should continue for the next decade. However, policies to expand the livestock sector could mitigate these developments, as increased domestic meat production would reduce both meat imports and surplus feed grain for export. Also, further growth in the region's grain exports will require improvement in the infrastructure for storing and transporting grain.     

对外直接投资逆向技术溢出的行业内与行业间路径检验 ——基于对空间计量方法的嫁接

创造性地对空间计量经济学中的空间相关性思想进行嫁接利用,在思路方法上进行开拓,构建反映同行业内企业间相互联系与各行业间相互关联的空间权重矩阵,建立空间杜宾模型,并以制造业为例,对ODI逆向技术溢出效应的行业内和行业间路径进行实证检验。对行业内路径的检验表明,企业全要素生产率受到同行业内其它企业ODI活动的影响,行业内企业通过ODI促进自身技术进步之后,又通过企业间各种竞争合作关系促进同行业其它企业生产率提高,行业内路径由此得以验证。对行业间路径的检验表明,各行业通过ODI促进本行业技术进步之后,又通过行业间前向与后向产业关联,对其它关联行业的技术进步和生产率提高起到促进作用,且产业完全关联下的促进作用大于直接关联,由此行业间路径得以验证。     

“60前”消费者玩转高科技产品基于反向代际影响调节作用的实证研究

针对1960年以前出生的50岁以上、居住在城市的消费者,研究了不同年龄、教育背景和月收入水平的年长消费者在高科技产品购买意愿方面的差异性,以及决策风格对于高科技产品购买意愿的影响。此外,本文还探讨了年轻一代对于年长消费者的影响,即反向代际影响对于研究人群的决策风格与高科技产品购买意愿之间关系的调节作用。本文通过研究发现不同年龄、教育背景和月收入水平的年长消费者在面对高科技产品时的购买意愿不同。同时,消费者的购物决策风格也会影响到消费者对于高科技产品的购买意愿。此外,反向代际影响对于决策风格和购买意愿之间的关系具有正向调节作用。最后,本文还根据研究结果给出了相应的管理建议。     

Proposal for calculating regulatory capital requirements for reverse mortgages

In the current context in which many people worry about the sustainability of pension systems, reverse mortgages are gaining popularity because they are a way to supplement elderly people's incomes. However, it is necessary to provide banks with an adequate risk measurement and management procedure for reverse mortgages to increase the commercialization of these products, which will result in greater well-being for the retirement age population. In this paper, we propose a method to measure risk and estimate the regulatory capital requirements for a portfolio of reverse mortgages owned by a financial institution according to Basel II and III. The method considers house price risk, mortality risk and interest rate risk; consequently, regulatory capital requirements need to be computed using a Monte Carlo simulation procedure. The proposed method is general and can accommodate several scenarios for reverse mortgage specifications, including fixed or variable mortgage rates and different income stream schemes (with the lump sum as a particular case). The results for the U.K. show that reverse mortgage providers face higher risk when the lender initially advances a higher amount, with the lump-sum case indicating the highest risk, for relatively younger borrowers, the female population, higher interest rates and floating mortgage rates.