房地产业与银行业间的风险溢出效应研究——基于DCC-GARCH-CoVaR模型

通过将2016年1月4日至2021年3月19日房地产业板块指数与银行业板块指数进行DCC-GARCH拟合,并利用两者动态相关系数计算ΔCoVaR值,实证检验近年来房地产业与银行业间的风险溢出。结果表明,房地产“三条红线”新规提出时风险值有明显的下降趋势,即新规对于风险溢出抑制有较为明显的影响。此外,根据实证结果,将风险调控路径分为传统信贷行为路径和行为金融学路径。最后,根据实证结果,为有效防范房地产与银行业风险溢出效应提出政策建议。     

道德型品牌危机事件的溢出效应及应对策略研究

本文聚焦于道德型品牌危机事件对品牌的负面影响以及对品牌群内其他品牌的溢出效应。文章基于挫折-攻击理论和情绪应对理论,通过问卷调查法构建道德型品牌危机事件对消费者反应(抵制态度、负面口碑传播、购买意愿)的影响机制模型,并通过实验方法分析受到波及的企业如何应对负向溢出效应。研究结果表明,消费者对此类危机事件的关注和其民族中心主义会引起消费者进攻型负面情绪和规避型负面情绪的双重变化,但是只有进攻型情绪能够导致消费者对事件品牌和其他关联品牌的系列反应;受到波及的品牌短期内宜采用沉默而非辩解策略来化解负向溢出效应。本文结论为有关道德型品牌危机事件的研究提供了新的视角,并为外国和本土品牌在此类危机事件中如何应对提供了有针对性的管理建议。     

金融发展、FDI溢出与区域创新绩效

基于2001-2017年中国30个省、市、自治区的平衡面板数据,运用XTSCC模型实证检验了金融发展、FDI溢出及其交互项对区域创新绩效的影响.研究发现,金融发展和FDI溢出均显著促进了中国创新绩效的提高,且金融发展水平强化了FDI溢出对创新绩效的促进效应.分区域来看,金融发展均显著促进了东部和中西部地区的创新绩效,而FDI技术溢出虽然显著提升了中西部地区的创新绩效,但是对东部的促进效应并不显著,并且当地区金融中介深化水平不足时,FDI溢出难以起到提升区域创新绩效的作用.进一步运用面板门槛模型检验发现,当金融中介深化程度低于0.6713时,FDI溢出对创新绩效有不显著的抑制效应;而当金融发展水平超过0.6713时,FDI溢出对创新绩效的估计系数显著为正,表明金融发展有助于增强FDI溢出对创新绩效的促进作用.     

中国能源强度的空间分布与收敛研究——基于动态空间面板模型的分析

区域间的空间溢出和技术溢出效应日益显著,在进行能源强度收敛研究时不可忽略空间依赖性和时间动态性。在考虑空间维度的地理邻近性和时间维度的动态性的基础上,采用动态空间面板模型分析中国29个省区能源强度的空间分布、动态变化趋势以及收敛情况,研究表明：从中国能源强度的空间分布来看,呈现东低西高的格局,并且存在空间自相关现象;从动态趋势看,能源强度的空间自相关指数在2005年之后趋于稳定,东、中、西部的能源强度均呈现持续下降的趋势;从总体趋势来看,能源强度存在绝对盯收敛,不存在绝对届收敛,但存在显著的条件卢收敛。提高能源效率以及缩小区域能源效率差异,应充分利用空间溢出效应,鼓励能源强度低的地区的技术溢出到能源强度高的地区,从而加快全国区域间能源强度的收敛速度。     

美联储加速退出量化宽松货币政策的影响及对我国的启示

受2013年6月美联储表态将逐步退出量化宽松货币政策的行为及其预期的影响,全球金融市场发生了剧烈地动荡,而美联储退出量化宽松货币政策的步伐却并未由此止步.这不仅会作用于美国的经济增长路径,同时也必将会使得以中国为代表的新兴市场经济体国家遭受美联储退出量化宽松货币政策的外溢性风险.文章就当前美联储退出QE预期及步伐加速的背景下,分析了美联储退出QE对全球经济的影响,以及从实体经济传导和金融市场传导层面探讨了对我国经济的影响,并认为美联储退出QE对我国而言既是一种挑战,也是一种机遇,并最终提出了以“保持稳定”为目标的防范美联储退出量化宽松货币政策溢出风险的对策建议.     

基于竞争分析框架的FDI溢出效应与挤出效应探究

FDI的溢出效应和挤出效应一直是学界争论的焦点。选取2008年我国31个省市区39个工业行业的面板数据,利用外资企业与内资企业的竞争分析框架,分析发现：外资企业对我国内资企业存在正向溢出效应,但并不是其发展的主要因素;内外资企业之间的市场共同度、资源相似度越高,则溢出效应就越低,挤出效应越大,且溢出效应可能小于挤出效应。因此,我国企业还需要加强技术创新,以提高资本利用率和劳动生产率;要摒弃模仿式战略,走差异化道路;也要合理地引导FDI的地域行业分布,以形成外资与内资企业适度竞争、相互学习的良性环境。     

Reexamining the time-varying volatility spillover effects: A Markov switching causality approach

This paper intends to examine the volatility spillover effect between selective developed markets including U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan and Hong Kong over the sample period from 1996 to 2011. We introduce a Markov switching causality method to model the potential instability of volatility spillover relationships over market tranquil or turmoil periods. This method is more flexible as no prior information on the changing points or size of sample window is needed. From the empirical results, we find the evidence of the existence of spillover effects among most markets, and the bilateral volatility spillover effects are more prominent over turmoil or crisis episodes, especially during Asia crisis and subprime mortgage crisis periods. Moreover, the distinct role of each market is also investigated.     

Volatility Spillover in Regional Emerging Stock Markets: A Structural Time-Series Approach

Volatility spillovers among the stock markets of Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia are investigated using the concept of stochastic volatility and structural time-series modeling. The results reveal volatility spillovers, in which the Kuwait market plays the major role. It is also found that volatility in one market cannot be explained fully in terms of volatility in the other two markets, but that, out of the three markets, the Kuwait market seems to be the most influential. Some explanations are put forward for why this is the case.     

Knowledge,Competence, And Regional Development

This study examines the impact that locational spillovers have on firm performance. On the basis of a uniquely created data set consisting of high-technology start-ups publicly listed in Germany, this paper tests the proposition of locational spillovers positively affecting firm performance, as measured by abnormally high profits on the stock market. The results provide evidence that geographic proximity and university spillovers are complementary determinants of firm performance. Although neither geographic proximity nor academic research spillovers alone can explain firm performance, a combination of both factors results in significant higher stock market performance. The results also show that academic spillovers are heterogeneous in their impact, depending on the type. In particular, spillovers from social sciences have a different impact on firm performance than do spillovers from natural sciences.     

Multivariate GARCH Volatility Across Major Industry Groups of the Stock Exchange of Thailand

This paper examines the volatility on the time-series relations among the returns of industry group indices in the stock exchange of Thailand. Does volatility of the return series in one industry group indices necessarily lead to volatility in other industry group indices among the sample of eight industry groups？ This research will be valuable to investors utilizing a better understand diversification needed to get good returns. Daily data （2,116 days） are used in this paper covering data for the nine-year period from January 5, 2004, to August 31, 2012. Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity was tested consisted of： （1） Diagonal VEC Model; （2） Baba Engle Kraft Kroner Models （BEKK Models）; （3） Vector Autoregressive Moving Average GARCH Model （VARMA GARCH Model）; and （4） Constant Conditional Correlation Model （CCC Model）. The findings indicated that the major result shows that, volatility in one industry group necessarily lead to volatility in other industry group indices in the opposite way and in the similar way.