企业家冒险倾向、区域冒险精神与企业创新 ——一个有调节的中介模型

企业家个人特质影响企业决策行为和决策结果,且其作用发挥受情境因素的制约。基于高阶理论,构建区域冒险精神的调节下,企业家冒险倾向通过创新投入对创新绩效产生影响的理论模型。以2014—2019年沪深两市上市公司为研究样本,结果发现：企业家冒险倾向对创新投入和创新绩效具有正向影响。创新投入能够促进创新绩效提升,而且在企业家冒险倾向和创新绩效间发挥部分中介作用。区域冒险精神对企业家冒险倾向和创新绩效关系的调节作用呈倒U型。结论揭示了企业内外部非正式制度的重要性,并进一步拓展了企业创新前置影响因素研究。     

货币市场基金的市场集中度影响了其风险承担吗？

在市场利率化的推动以及互联网金融的快速发展下,我国货币市场基金市场结构发生了较大的变化,这种外部环境的改变是否影响了货币市场基金的风险承担？本文以2010-2016年货币市场基金相关数据,考察货币市场基金市场集中度的变化对货币市场基金风险承担的影响。结果发现:(1)货币市场基金的风险承担与货币市场集中度呈显著的负相关关系,且这种风险承担与货币基金特征异质性无关,但宽松的货币政策、实行“T+0”赎回都会导致基金的风险承担增加。(2)通过引入双重差分方法检验货币基金“互联网化”这一外生冲击对货币市场基金风险承担的影响,发现互联网货币基金的风险承担增加,而传统货币市场基金的风险承担有所下降。(3)基金规模排名以及业绩锦标赛制度会使得货币市场基金主动提高其风险承担水平。本文的研究结论可为金融监管提供一定政策启示。     

The meaning of risk-taking – key concepts and dimensions

Dealing with and taking risks are central issues of current societies which had been characterised by heightened debates and conflicts about risk (Beck, Giddens). Even though there is good knowledge available, policies and strategies to reduce people’s risk-taking are often less successful than expected. Experts are puzzled about common people not following good advice presuming people’s lack of understanding. While this might be true in many cases a growing body of research shows, rather than being merely ignorant or misinformed, people often have good knowledge when taking risks. A growing body of research provides knowledge about the complexities, dynamics and contradictions of people’s risk-taking. However, there have been little attempts to systematise this body of knowledge. This article contributes to such an enterprise. It suggests distinguishing between different motives for risk-taking, different levels of control and a number of ways how reflexivity about risk is rooted in the social realm. It also explores how risk-taking is part of developing and protecting a valued identity. The article concludes, across different domains there is good evidence for how structural and cultural forces combine and shape risk-taking while people take risks to develop a valued identity and to protect it. Advancing expert’s understanding of risk-taking and change people’s risk-taking require considering and approaching the larger social contexts and individual risk practices in everyday life.     

房价波动、抵押资产价值与企业风险承担

本文将房价波动作为外生事件,探讨了由房价波动所带来的抵押资产价值变化对企业风险承担水平的影响。房价上涨所带来的抵押资产价值上升会增强企业的融资能力,此时,理论上,一方面,管理层为了规避风险,会将抵押资产价值增加所带来的资源配置到那些风险较小但短期内可以获得高额利润的行业(如:房地产行业),从而会降低企业的风险承担水平;另一方面,因为企业融资能力的增强,管理层将有更充裕的资金投入到那些高风险且收益为正的项目,从而会提高企业的风险承担水平。实证结论支持第一种理论机制。进一步的实证检验支持非房地产企业大量进行房地产投资是上述结论形成的主要路径。在克服内生性问题和度量误差的可能影响之后,本文结论依然存在。     

Difference in interim performance and risk taking with short-sale constraints

Absent much theory, empirical works often rely on the following informal reasoning when looking for evidence of a mutual fund tournament: If there is a tournament, interim winners have incentives to decrease their portfolio volatility as they attempt to protect their lead, while interim losers are expected to increase their volatility so as to catch up with winners. We consider a rational model of a mutual fund tournament in the presence of short-sale constraints and find the opposite: Interim winners choose more volatile portfolios in equilibrium than interim losers. Several empirical works present evidence consistent with our model. However, based on the above informal argument, they appear to conclude against the tournament behavior. We argue that this conclusion is unwarranted. We also demonstrate that tournament incentives lead to differences in interim performance for otherwise identical managers and that mid-year trading volume is inversely related to mid-year stock return.     

互联网金融、存款竞争与银行风险承担

本文通过构建纳入互联网金融的银行环形城市模型,推演了“互联网金融→存款结构/付息成本→银行风险承担”的传导机制。在此基础上,以2003-2016年我国83家商业银行为样本,建立多重中介效应模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明:(1)互联网金融发展经由恶化存款结构和抬高付息成本两种渠道显著加重了银行风险承担水平,其中,恶化存款结构效应的相对贡献为50%左右,抬高付息成本效应的相对贡献为35%左右;(2)相较于互联网渠道构筑业态,互联网支付结算、互联网资源配置和互联网财富管理业态对银行存款结构和付息成本的不利影响更为强烈;(3)相对于国有、大规模、低流动性和低资本充足率商业银行,面对互联网金融的冲击,非国有、小规模、高流动性和高资本充足率商业银行的客户存款流失更快,平均付息成本上涨更多。     

Which banks are more risky? The impact of business models on bank stability

In this paper, we analyze the impact of business models on bank stability in 15 EU countries between 2002 and 2011. We represent banks’ business models by the share of non-interest income in total operating income and the share of non-deposit funding in total liabilities. In contrast to the literature, we include in our sample a large number of unlisted banks, which represent the majority of banks in the EU. We believe this to be important, since many unlisted banks typically have a more retail-oriented business model. We show that banks will be significantly more stable and profitable if they increase their share of non-interest income, indicating that substantial benefits are to be gained from income diversification. Such benefits are particularly large for savings and cooperative banks. Investment banks, in contrast, become significantly more risky. Diversifying into non-deposit funding has a different impact as well. While retail-oriented banks will be significantly less stable if they increase their share of non-deposit funding, investment banks will be significantly more stable. These findings indicate that it is important to enlarge the sample of banks and to include different types of banks with different business models in order to arrive at general conclusions about the effect of non-interest income and non-deposit funding on bank stability.     

Exploring the nexus between banking sector reform and performance: Evidence from newly acceded EU countries

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between banking sector reform and bank performance – measured in terms of efficiency, total factor productivity growth and net interest margin – accounting for the effects through competition and bank risk-taking. To this end, we develop an empirical model of bank performance, which is consistently estimated using recent econometric techniques. The model is applied to bank panel data from ten newly acceded EU countries. The results indicate that both banking sector reform and competition exert a positive impact on bank efficiency, while the effect of reform on total factor productivity growth is significant only toward the end of the reform process. Finally, the effect of capital and credit risk on bank performance is in most cases negative, while it seems that higher liquid assets reduce the efficiency and productivity of banks.     

中国的“影子保险”:来自监管自然实验的证据

影子保险在金融稳定中扮演着重要角色,但现有文献较多关注影子银行,对影子保险关注不足。“影子保险”即保险公司通过再保险方式将保险业务转移给不受监管或者受监管较弱的关联企业的活动,这会推高其真实的杠杆水平,增加金融体系脆弱性。然而,由于影子保险的不透明性和缺少自然实验,现有研究仅基于有限数据或模型给出简单的特征事实或结构性估计,很少能从因果关系上清楚地识别影子保险活动及其机制。本文利用中国加强对中资保险公司(处理组)再保险关联交易监管的政策冲击这一自然实验,使用微观数据和双重差分方法,识别了中国金融体系中的影子保险活动。研究发现,相关监管有效降低了影子保险活动,这一效应对集团公司的影响尤为显著;在机制方面,相关监管通过影响中资保险公司资产负债表两端的结构性调整进而降低了其风险承担行为,提高了经营稳定性。本文方法对识别金融机构的监管套利和防范系统性金融风险具有一定参考意义。     

房地产贷款对商业银行风险的影响效应研究

房地产贷款是银行资产端的重要组成部分,其规模和占比可能会影响商业银行的经营风险.本文基于我国内地31个省、自治区、直辖市的区域经济发展数据和属地商业银行的微观绩效数据,实证检验了房地产贷款规模变化对商业银行风险承担行为的影响.研究结果显示,大部分地区的商业银行房地产贷款规模与经营风险之间呈正U型曲线的特征,并存在临界点.如果超过临界点再继续扩大房地产贷款规模,可以增加商业银行的收益,但同时也会提升商业银行的经营风险.鉴此,建议通过测算不同经济发展程度地区商业银行房地产贷款规模的临界点,对商业银行实施差异化监管,以防止商业银行片面追求资产规模或房地产贷款收益而导致的经营风险上升问题,维护金融体系的整体稳定.