基于支持向量机的金融市场指数追踪技术研究

本文研究了指数型基金管理和指数套利中最核心的指数追踪问题。依据结构风险最小化思想,建立了基于支持向量机的指数追踪模型,并利用OR-Library中的测试数据之恒生指数历史数据进行了实证检验。数据结果表明本文提出的新方法能够提高样本外的追踪效果,同时也说明该方法具有良好的鲁棒性,从而具有较高的理论和实用价值。     

农业产业化发展与农民市场风险

农业产业化是农业走向现代化的一个重要途径.而农民所面临的市场风险增加势必会影响农业产业化进程.当代农民还未成为真正的市场主体、市场运行机制不健全、农业的信息市场不发达和农民的竞争地位低是农业产业化中农民风险增加的主要原因.因此,必须培育新型的农业市场主体、建立市场主体与农民之间利润和风险的均衡机制、健全市场法律体系,并加强农业信息化的建设,选择有效的财政支农政策,以弱化农民的市场风险,促进农业产业化.     

房地产业发展面临风险的思考

房地产业是我国支柱产业,未来走向事关国民经济发展和民生改善.而国家政策和市场需求是我国房地产业赖以长期高速发展的两大重要推动力.当前.房地产业虽进入新一轮发展阶段.但通过对城市化、旧城改造、投资、消费四个影响房地产市场需求因素的现实状况的实证分析.财政政策、货币政策和产业政策未来走向的趋势分析,认为市场需求不足和国家政策不确定性是房地产业发展面临的主要风险.值得行业和政府关注,需采取相应的对策以规避风险.     

供应链中的组织风险及其应对措施

供应链中伙伴间的组织风险是客观存在的,其风险因素主要有：沟通协作因素、一致性因素、信用因素、激励因素等。本文提出了应对组织风险的几种措施。     

Mastering risks: An illusion: Truth and tropes on jeopardy

Drawing on examples from maritime insurance, this article seeks to show that historically rules and regulations have often taken into consideration the performativity of risk insurance so as to limit the range of insured risks and thus avoid the realization of the claims through embezzlement or kindred corruption.Today the question of performativity and corruption remains outside the pale of financial research. Having rejected the distinction between uncertainty and risk, financiers take risk quantification as an incontrovertible given. Quantifying risk has become a key feature in modern finance ever since the difference between risk and uncertainty was rejected by financiers. Two reasons underlie this state of affairs: first the prevalent rationalist paradigm as expounded by highly reputed university professors has elevated “quantifiable risk” to a dogma. Additionally, this idea of risk, and its quantifiable limits, gain acceptance by society to the extent that systemic risk is constrained by a further concept: efficient markets. Herein we develop an idea of ethical responsibility which leads to a novel definition of risk, sharply diverging from current practice and instruction, so as to meeting the contemporary needs of both finance and broader society.     

Modeling the determinants of consumers' attitudes toward online group buying: Do risks and trusts matters?

The aim of this research is to investigate the determinants of consumers' attitude towards online group buying (OGB). Furthermore, this study compares male and female shoppers based on their purchasing behavior in OGB. Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) approach supported by Smart-PLS 2.0 was used for data analysis as it avoids biases in the parameter estimation in regression analysis. A PLS-SEM approach revealed that website trustworthiness was the strongest predictor of consumers’ attitude towards OGB. Consumers noted that the site of initiator appeals to be more trustworthy than other sites and delivers every promise made. Indeed, they felt trusted for their group buying on the Internet when clear legal privacy statements including guarantees are available on the websites. They were assured that initiator's protective measures for online payment are secured. The reliability and validity of the measurement items used and collection of data via survey questionnaires clearly confirmed the robustness of the research methodology applied which led to the creation of reliable and valid discoveries. Online retail managers should improve their transaction security mechanisms and Internet technology to dwindle consumers' perceived risks in terms of financial, product and time risks, strengthen their trusts, and grow online trading confidence when executing OGB. With sufficient knowledge of network group-buying platform, customers would develop more trust to the security of online group-buying platform which lessen the risk cost thereafter. The viable quantitative empirical results transport new and substantial ideas into the marketing model as it systematically and precisely investigates the significant factors and adds to the emergent works around consumer OGB behavior.     

Managing the risks of outsourcing: Time,quality and correlated costs

Cost, quality and time to market are three main factors for outsourcing management. A game theoretic model is used to design optimal outsourcing contracts including these three factors for a buyer and a supplier under Full Information (F) case and Asymmetric Information (A) case where the buyer does not share her internal variable cost information with the supplier. Optimal outsourcing contracts are derived and results of numerical experiment are also presented. Several insights of managing the outsourcing risks due to the Asymmetric Information are given for various industries, like cost-sensitive industry, time-sensitive industry, and quality-sensitive industry.     

我国保障房建设存在的风险及对策建议

我国保障性住房从1998年开始,经历了试点、推广、类别增加等几个阶段。本文在总结我国保障房发展特点和保障房建设存在问题的基础上,分析了保障房建设中开发商面临的投资风险,并分别从政府和开发商的角度提出应对策略建议。     

全球化背景下商业银行战略性风险分析

对于商业银行来说,尽管其风险因素众多,但首当其冲的是要预防可能导致银行危机的战略性风险。基于世界经济论坛对未来10年全球重大风险的分析,本文认为,未来10年影响我国商业银行的战略性风险主要有:证券市场或地产市场的暴跌、中央政府和地方政府的财政危机、中国实体经济的衰退、危害社会就业群体的慢性病和银行治理缺口。由于突发事件的影响和风险之间的连锁反应,发达国家对中国企业所采取的市场或技术封锁、食品价格波动和关键信息设施瘫痪也可能演化成为我国银行的战略性风险。     

Identifying permanent and transitory risks in the Chinese property insurance market

This paper develops a theoretical model to identify various risks in the Chinese property insurance market. Consequently, we apply a structural VAR model to quantify the magnitude, historical timing of these risks, and their dynamic impacts on the permanent and transitory components of the insurance premiums. The results indicate that the enormous amount of speculative funds flowing into China has aggravated insurance premiums as well as helped accelerate market volatilities due to its uncertain nature to the domestic economy and its short-term characteristic of investing. In particular, the speculative shock is shown to be the primary factor responsible for the transitory fluctuation of insurance premiums while the supply shock explains the preponderance of insurance premiums’ permanent growth in recent years.