基于B/S架构下的“一张图”工程实现研究

"一张图"工程是遥感、土地利用现状、基本农田、遥感监测、土地变更调查以及基础地理等多源信息的集合,与国土资源的计划、审批、补充、开发、执法等行政监管系统叠加,共同构建统一的综合管理平台。该项工作是国土部门自2008年以来的一项重要工作,是国土资源大调查成果展示和应用的最终平台,也是实现"以图管地"的最终手段。本文中将根据相关专业知识并结合计算机前沿技术以及多年来国土部门信息管理的经验,就"一张图"工程的建设做探索性研究,对该工程关键技术和框架做出设计。     

What inventories tell us about aggregate fluctuations—A tractable approach to (S,s) policies

We estimate a DSGE model with (S,s) inventory policies. We find that (i) taking inventories into account can significantly improve the empirical fit of DSGE models in matching the standard business-cycle moments (in addition to explaining inventory fluctuations); (ii) (S,s) inventory policies can significantly amplify aggregate output fluctuations, in contrast to the findings of the recent general-equilibrium inventory literature; and (iii) aggregate demand shocks become more important than technology shocks in explaining the business cycle once inventories are incorporated into the model. An independent contribution of our paper is that we develop a solution method for analytically solving (S,s) inventory policies in general equilibrium models with heterogeneous firms and a large aggregate state space, and we illustrate how standard log-linearization methods can be used to solve various versions of our inventory model, generate impulse response functions, and estimate the model׳s deep structural parameters.     

Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data

This paper proposes the use of forecast combination to improve predictive accuracy in forecasting the U.S. business cycle index, as published by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER. It focuses on one-step ahead out-of-sample monthly forecast utilising the well-established coincident indicators and yield curve models, allowing for dynamics and real-time data revisions. Forecast combinations use log-score and quadratic-score based weights, which change over time. This paper finds that forecast accuracy improves when combining the probability forecasts of both the coincident indicators model and the yield curve model, compared to each model's own forecasting performance.     

政府治理框架下看美国联邦预算僵局——表现形式、制度成因及启示

政府治理中,预算制度和过程建设是关键,一个为民负责、有制衡监管和公开透明机制的预算制度,应能起到压缩非良态治理的空间并最后达成良态治理的作用。美国联邦的预算制度,其政治权力的制衡、立法对行政的监管以及其制度的公开透明,有其可取之处。然而,尽管有比较完整的预算制度,联邦却依然频发预算僵局。当联邦预算僵局被放置在政府治理的框架中来看待时,这样的僵局更多反映的是美国制衡监管的制度设计。从国际比较看,有预算僵局不一定是坏事,而没有预算僵局不一定是好事。     

美军射频识别技术应用现状及存在的主要问题

研究美军射频识别技术的应用情况及存在的主要问题,对于我军科学合理地使用该技术,避免类似问题的发生具有一定的借鉴和启示作用。通过介绍美军射频识别技术应用的基本情况和各军种进行的尝试性应用,全面分析技术应用上存在的主要问题,可以看出,美军利用已建成的射频识别网络,提高了后勤保障的质量效益,但也存在一些比较突出的问题,影响制约了射频识别技术作用的发挥。     

信息管理系统的开发与应用——在大坝安全监测资料分析整编中的应用

大坝安全监测资料分析整编充分利用计算机技术、数据库技术、通信和网络技术及图形图像分析技术,采用C/S和B/S模式结合Web Service服务模式进行研究开发,引入AES对称加密技术,保障采集数据安全、有效传输。     

产业结构调整中生产者服务业的发展趋势分析——以美国为例

生产者服务业作为现代经济的重要组成部分和经济增长的主导力量,以其在社会分工和产业创新方面的独特作用,正成为世界各国特别是发达国家经济增长的新亮点。美国引导着世界服务业和服务贸易结构演进升级的潮流。在当前金融危机余波未散、经济仍然低迷的背景下,生产者服务业必定会在全球经济抵御危机、走出低谷方面发挥至关重要的作用。而这对于制造业受金融危机影响至深、服务业尚不发达的中国而言,无疑也具有借鉴意义。     

日本应对金融危机的新经济刺激方案

本文介绍了日本应对金融危机而出台的一系列经济刺激方案。重点对2009年4月10日,日本政府出台的名为《经济危机对策》进行介绍。详细阐述了日本政府克服经济危机的基本方针、雇佣对策、金融对策和中长期的科技对策。最后,对日本政府应对金融危机的特点进行总结。     

我国科技人力资源开发的国际差异分析

自我国提出“创新型国家”战略以来,科技人力资源的开发与管理逐渐成为各界研究关注的一个焦点。本文选取一些反映科技人力资源开发状况的主要指标,分别从总量比较和相对比较两种角度,将我国与世界主要国家进行比较,分析我国在科技人力资源开发的投入和产出等方面存在主要差距,进而提出积极的政策建议。     

Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? Evidence from the U.S.

We examine the stabilization role of the exchange rate in the U.S. economy using a factor augmented vector autoregression model. We find that exchange rate shock explains a large fraction of the variation in exchange rate and transmits major disturbances to the real economy. Further, we find that demand and supply shocks explain less than a quarter of the exchange rate movement. We provide robust evidence that although the exchange rate plays some role as a shock absorber, its role as an independent source of shocks is more dominant for the U.S. economy. The foreign exchange market breeds its own shocks which are destabilizing not only to the value of the dollar but to the overall economy as well. Our results suggest that policymakers need to take foreign exchange market fluctuations into account when making macroeconomic policy decisions.