Tracking down distress risk

This paper shows that exposure to aggregate distress risk is the underlying source of the premiums for the Fama-French size (SMB) and value (HML) factors. Using a unique data set of aggregate business failures of both private and public firms from 1926 to 1997, I build portfolios that track news about future firm failures. These tracking portfolios optimally hedge aggregate distress risk and earn a Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) alpha of approximately −4% a year. Both HML and SMB predict changes in future failure rates. Small stocks have lower returns than large stocks and value stocks have lower returns than growth stocks when the market expects an increase in future failure rates. Finally, a two-factor model with the market and the tracking portfolio for aggregate distress as factors does as well as the Fama-French three-factor model in pricing the 25 size and book-to-market sorted portfolios.     

Determinants of the Method of Payment in Asset Sell‐Off Transactions

Using a sample of asset sell‐off transactions from January 1990 to April 2010, we find that the method of payment used in asset sell‐off transactions is associated with several characteristics cited in the acquisitions research that reflect cash constraints of the bidder. Specifically, bidders facing more stringent cash constraints are more likely to use equity when purchasing assets, while sellers subjected to cash constraints prefer cash when selling assets. Second, we find that the variation in method of payment among asset sell‐off transactions also is partially explained by variables representing asymmetric information. Third, we apply our model to an expanded sample that includes non‐U.S. sellers of assets and find that an equity payment is more likely when sellers are based in countries that have relatively high country risk (more government restrictions), weak shareholder rights, and a weak legal system. Thus, it appears that bidders prefer that sellers share in the risk of the transaction under these conditions.     

Identifying Discretionary Fiscal Policy Reactions with Real‐Time Data

We propose a method of identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions using real‐time data. Automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy is contingent on the information that policy makers have in real time. We can compute a real‐time measurement error by comparing the first release of GDP data with later revisions. Discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by this measurement error, whereas automatic fiscal policy is not. We use this identification approach to test the central identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti’s (2002) seminal structural vector autoregression (VAR). According to this assumption, fiscal policy makers do not react to GDP developments contemporaneously in a discretionary fashion. We find that government expenditure is adjusted upward if GDP growth in real time is lower than true GDP. This suggests that fiscal policy makers use short‐term funds to buy goods and services in response to their perception of GDP dynamics.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Rounding on the SPF Probabilities of Decline and Output Growth Histograms

I consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future, as well as their reported output growth probability distributions. I make various plausible assumptions about respondents’ rounding practices, and show how these impinge upon the apparent mismatch between probability forecasts of a decline in output and the probabilities of this event implied by the annual output growth histograms. I find that rounding accounts for about a quarter of the inconsistent pairs of forecasts.     

Do Spillovers Stimulate Incremental or Drastic Product Innovations? Evidence from German Establishment Data*

Despite the generally recognized importance of knowledge spillovers, the empirical literature is essentially silent on the type of innovation stimulated by spillovers. We estimate the determinants of product innovations differing in their degree of newness to the adopting firm. Knowledge spillovers from rivals have a positive impact on incremental innovations. This impact is largely independent of participation in R&D cooperation. Spillovers exert no such independent influence on drastic innovation activities. The results support the hypothesis that establishments face difficulties in using knowledge that comes from areas they are not familiar with. Establishments exploit spillovers for incremental innovations rather than for drastic innovations. To some degree R&D cooperation can help to overcome the difficulties in using spillovers for drastic innovations. Furthermore, our estimates provide evidence that the firm's own R&D effort and the use of outside information are substitutes.     

The Risk Effects of Acquiring Distressed Firms

Existing research shows that bidder default risk increases following acquisitions due to a rise in post‐acquisition leverage and managerial risk‐taking actions offsetting the potential for asset diversification. This study examines whether the risk effects of acquiring distressed targets are fundamentally different and investigates possible explanations for any dissimilarities. Bidders often acquire relatively smaller distressed targets in domestic and related industries and have a higher initial target stake and more financial flexibility, thereby minimizing risk exposure. Controlling for several characteristics of bidder investment behaviour in both types of deals, however, we find that the increase in bidder default risk is substantially larger when acquiring distressed firms.     

Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching: Combining conventional with statistical identification of shocks

In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis a Markov regime switching (MS) property can be exploited to identify shocks if the reduced form error covariance matrix varies across regimes. Unfortunately, these shocks may not have a meaningful structural economic interpretation. It is discussed how statistical and conventional identifying information can be combined. The discussion is based on a VAR model for the US containing oil prices, output, consumer prices and a short-term interest rate. The system has been used for studying the causes of the early millennium economic slowdown based on traditional identification with zero and long-run restrictions and using sign restrictions. We find that previously drawn conclusions are questionable in our framework.     

Diversification and cash dynamics

Why do diversified firms hold significantly less cash than focused firms? We study this question using a dynamic model of corporate investment, saving, and diversification decisions. We find that investment dynamics are more important in explaining the cash differences than financing frictions. More efficient internal capital markets increase cash differences and are especially valuable when a firm diversifies or refocuses. Contrary to static models, more diverse conglomerates have lower cash differences. Endogenous selection (diversifying firms are larger and have better growth opportunities) accounts for 68% of the cash difference, and the diversification event itself reduces cash holdings by 32%.     

R＆D Activities of Manufacturing Multinationals in China： Structure,Motivations and Regional Differences

This paper investigates the R＆D motivations of various multinationals operating in China, drawing on a large-scale, firm-level dataset of official Chinese statistics on science and technology activities. The present study shows that R＆D efforts in China have intensified for bothJbreign-owned and domestic firms, but less so for foreign-owned firms, perhaps because foreign-owned firms tend to operate on a foundation of technological capabilities developed within their home countries. Statistical analysis confirms that the major motivations for foreign R＆D in China are production-driven, not market-driven or technology-driven. Nevertheless, one sees significant variations in foreign R＆D strategies from region to region. Guangdong is characterized by production-driven R＆D. In Beijing, R＆D strategies tend to take a technology-driven approach, drawing on the clusters of scienl（fic institutions. In Shanghai, the R＆D efforts of multinationals tend to focus on support for market-driven R＆D,     

Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform： Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010

In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.