Can multi-source heterogeneous data improve the forecasting performance of tourist arrivals amid COVID-19? Mixed-data sampling approach

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has already caused enormous damage to the global economy and various industries worldwide, especially the tourism industry. In the post-pandemic era, accurate tourism demand recovery forecasting is a vital requirement for a thriving tourism industry. Therefore, this study mainly focuses on forecasting tourist arrivals from mainland China to Hong Kong. A new direction in tourism demand recovery forecasting employs multi-source heterogeneous data comprising economy-related variables, search query data, and online news data to motivate the tourism destination forecasting system. The experimental results confirm that incorporating multi-source heterogeneous data can substantially strengthen the forecasting accuracy. Specifically, mixed data sampling (MIDAS) models with different data frequencies outperformed the benchmark models.     

Labour taxation,job creation and job destruction—Focusing on the role of wage setting

We study the effects of labour taxation in a search equilibrium model with endogenous job destruction, embedding three alternative models of wage setting: Nash bargain, monopoly union and efficiency wages. Tax policy implications vary considerably depending on the wage setting model and indexation of unemployment benefits. If wage setting is based on bargaining, a pure increase in the tax progression reduces unemployment, improves the relative position of low-income workers and facilitates the emergence of low-productivity jobs. However, this comes at the cost of reduced efficiency partly owing to lower average productivity. JEL Code J30, J51, J64, H24     

Search Cost and Price Dispersion in Vertically Related Markets: The Case of Bank Loans and Deposits

Using data on marginal interest rates of loan and deposit products by Spanish banks, we find that the level of interest rates on loans (deposits) across geographic markets decrease (increase) with the number of banks in each market, and that the level of interest rates on loans increases with the level of interest rates of deposits. We also find that the dispersion of interest rates of both loans and deposits increase with the number of banks. This evidence is interpreted as evidence of customer’s search costs in retail banking, consistent with predictions from the Carlson and McAfee (J Polit Econ 91:480–493, 1983) model of market competition with search costs.     

渐进式抑或突破式：个体创新幅度对众包绩效的影响——基于计算仿真的分析

结合TCPE框架和NK模型，构建一个模拟众包问题解决过程的仿真模型，引入个体创新幅度表征个体创新搜索行为，引入个体有限理性水平和有限理性偏差表征个体认知能力，探讨个体创新幅度对众包绩效的影响机制,以及个体有限理性和任务复杂性的调节作用。结果发现：个体创新幅度与众包绩效存在两种影响模式：当任务非常简单时，个体创新幅度与众包绩效呈负相关关系；当任务复杂性较高时，个体创新幅度与众包绩效呈倒U型关系；两种影响模式不会受到个体有限理性水平和有限理性偏差的调节。在相对复杂的任务中，任务复杂性与个体有限理性偏差会调节实现最优众包绩效对应的个体创新幅度，任务复杂性越高、个体有限理性偏差越大，对应的个体创新幅度随之增加。个体创新幅度会削弱个体认知能力对众包绩效的影响，当个体认知能力较强时，需要采用渐进式创新；当个体认知能力较弱时，需要采用突破式创新。该结论可为企业在众包过程中营造平台创新氛围提供理论依据。     

The labor market effects of introducing unemployment benefits in an economy with high informality

Unemployment benefit systems are nonexistent in many developing economies. Introducing such systems poses many challenges which are partly due to the high level of informality in the labor markets of these economies. This paper studies the consequences on the labor market of implementing an unemployment benefit system in economies with large informal sectors and high flows of workers between formality and informality. We build a search and matching model with endogenous destruction, on-the-job search, and intersectoral flows, where agents in the economy decide optimally whether or not to formalize jobs. We calibrate the model for Mexico, and show that the introduction of an unemployment benefit system, where workers contribute when employed in the formal market and collect benefits when they lose their jobs, even if they obtain informal jobs, can lead to an increase in formality in the economy, while also producing small increases in unemployment. The exact impact of incorporating such benefits depends on the relative strength of two opposing effects: the generosity of the benefits and the level of the contributions that finance those benefits. We also show important policy complementarities with other interventions in the labor market. In particular, combining the unemployment benefit program with policies that reduce the cost of formality, such as lower employment taxes and firing costs, can produce greater decreases in informality and lower impacts on unemployment than when the program is applied in isolation.     

杠杆率新规对上市商业银行信贷约束的有效性研究

为研究杠杆率新规对银行信贷的影响,本文选用2004-2012年我国上市商业银行的杠杆率以及其他影响银行信贷指标的变量,就杠杆率标准的实施对约束我国商业银行信贷规模的有效性进行了实证分析。结果表明,杠杆率与我国商业银行的信贷规模呈负相关关系,杠杆率的监管要求会导致杠杆率不达标的银行信贷增长放缓;就影响程度而言,杠杆率对大型国有商业银行信贷规模的影响大于对股份制商业银行和城市商业银行的影响。     

Are specific skills an obstacle to labor market adjustment?

This paper shows that specialized education reduces workers’ mobility and hence their ability to cope with economic changes. We illustrate this point using labor force data from two countries having experienced important macroeconomic turbulence; a large economy with rigid labor markets, Poland, and a small open economy with increased flexibility, Estonia. We find that holding a vocational degree is associated with much longer unemployment duration spells and higher likelihood of leaving activity for older workers. We then build a theoretical framework in which young agents’ careers are heavily determined by the type of initial education, and analyze the transition to a new steady-state after a sectoral demand shift. Quantitative exercises suggest that the over-specialization of the labor force in Poland led to much higher and persistent unemployment compared to Estonia during the period of EU enlargement. Traditional labor market institutions (wage rigidity and employment protection) lead to an increase of the unemployment gap, but to a lesser extent.     

Employment and hours of work

This paper develops a dynamic model of the labor market in which the degree of substitution between employment and hours of work is determined as part of a search equilibrium. Each firm chooses its demand for working hours and number of vacancies, and the earnings profile is determined by Nash bargaining. The earnings profile is generally nonlinear in hours of work, and defines the trade-off between employment and hours of work. Concave production technology induces firms to overemploy and, as a result, hours of work are below their optimal level. The Hosios condition is not sufficient for efficiency. When there are two industries, workers employed by firms with higher recruitment costs work longer and earn more. That is, “good jobs” require longer hours of work. Interestingly, technology differentials cannot account for working hours differentials.     

禁忌搜索算法在编组站调机运用计划中的应用

在分析论述调机运用计划编制方法的基础上,提出应用禁忌搜索算法进行编组站调机运用计划的编制。分别以最小化延迟解体列车和编组列车加权数量为目标建立数学模型,以解编顺序作为优化对象,设计禁忌搜索算法对其进行求解,并以解体顺序为例,采用两两交换(2-opt)方式构建邻域,以该操作前后列车解体顺序的变化作为禁忌对象构建禁忌表,利用软件编程实现模型计算,并通过算例验证该算法的可行性和有效性。     

Marketing tactics discouraging price search: Deception and competition

Retailers attempt to assure consumers that their deals are bargains using a variety of marketing tactics. Because consumers continue information and price searches until satisfied with the amount of the information to make a purchase, such bargain assurances (BAs) can change consumers' shopping behavior. This article identifies twelve common BAs and reviews extant marketing literature to derive evidence of how BAs affect consumers' purchasing behavior. It then examines how these practices are regulated to prevent consumer deception or a reduction in competition. This article concludes by offering three policy recommendations: BAs influence consumers and require regulation; the regulation of BAs demands a comprehensive rather than a piecemeal approach; and consumer policy should facilitate and encourage accurate price comparisons.