群体选择与个体主义方法论

群体选择在经济学中运用的合法性长期受到质疑,许多学者认为它与个体主义方法是冲突的。通过研究群体选择理论的传统不足与现代发展,深入辨析个体主义方法论的实质内涵和拓展,本文尝试论证两者的可兼容性,从而理清群体选择在经济学运用中的方法论障碍。本文指出,群体选择的方法论与个体主义方法论是兼容的,它不仅能够解释利他个体的演化,也能够从新的视角解释社会制度的演化,进而还能够为个体与制度的共同演化提供解释框架。     

Differentiating use and nonuse values for coastal pond water quality improvements

This paper measures the benefits of water quality improvements in three coastal ponds on the island of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, U.S.A. Use, option, and existence values were elicited from Martha's Vineyard property owners by the contingent valuation method. On average, more than half of the total benefits are attributed to existence value. Results from the Heckman selection model show that the exclusion of protest, as well as missing bids, does not cause significant bias in estimating respondents' willingness-to-pay. Socioeconomic characteristics are found to have distinctively different influences on use, option, and existence values. Different model parameters are likely to be estimated depending on which value categories are measured by a selected valuation technique. These findings emphasize the importance of nonuse values from water quality improvements and of socioeconomic characteristics for measuring different categories of values.Associate Scientist, the Marine Policy Center, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Support for this research was provided by the Pew Charitable Trust, and the Marine Policy Center. Thanks are due Elliot Backerman for making the data available to the author, and Peter Britz and Sarah Repetto for research assistance. Comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this paper from Steven Edwards, A. Myrick Freeman, Porter Hoagland, Raymond Kopp, V. Kerry Smith and two anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged. This article is WHOI Contribution No. 7752.     

Model selection in univariate time series forecasting using discriminant analysis

When a large number of time series are to be forecast on a regular basis, as in large scale inventory management or production control, the appropriate choice of a forecast model is important as it has the potential for large cost savings through improved accuracy. A possible solution to this problem is to select one best forecast model for all the series in the dataset. Alternatively one may develop a rule that will select the best model for each series. Fildes (1989) calls the former an aggregate selection rule and the latter an individual selection rule. In this paper we develop an individual selection rule using discriminant analysis and compare its performance to aggregate selection for the quarterly series of the M-Competition data. A number of forecast accuracy measures are used for the evaluation and confidence intervals for them are constructed using bootstrapping. The results indicate that the individual selection rule based on discriminant scores is more accurate, and sometimes significantly so, than any aggregate selection method.     

促进农民进城就业的博弈分析

文章首先从农民进城就业所面临的实际问题出发构造博弈模型,然后用博弈分析的方法探讨了农民进城就业的策略选择、素质准备选择等,最后依据博弈分析结果探讨了可采取的措施与对策。     

金融支持农村新型经营主体的路径选择

近几年,随着我国农村经济的快速发展,产生了一些农村新型经营主体,其表现形式主要有家庭农场、农民专业合作社和农村企业。农村新型经营主体的产生是现代农业发展的产物,它的出现将会加快我国现代化农业发展进程。金融业应顺应现代农业的发展需要,通过制度创新、产品创新加强对农村新型经营主体的支持力度。     

我国反洗钱工作中行为选择的博弈分析

反洗钱对于维护社会公平正义、保障金融安全和打击贪污腐败等犯罪活动有重要的意义。本文在分析我国反洗钱工作现状的基础上,运用博弈论分析方法,通过构造成本收益模型,分析反洗钱工作中各方的行为选择,并借鉴美国反洗钱工作的经验,探讨符合我国国情、能够改善和提高反洗钱工作效能的政策建议。     

广西北部湾经济区构建制造业基地的产业选择:以产品内分工为基础

广西北部湾经济区地理位置优越,在构建制造业基地方面已形成一定产业集群及建立了一系列的加工制造业。以产品内分工为基础来研究构建制造业基地的产业选择方向对北部湾经济区快速融入周边国家和地区的国际分工与贸易具有重要指导意义。分析广西北部湾经济区参与产品内分工的经济决定因素和物理决定因素,来选择其参与产品内分工的行业及切入产品内分工的价值链环节。     

西法城际铁路动车组编组辆数及选型研究

西法城际铁路是西部地区关中城际铁路网的重要组成部分,连接沿线各城市及著名旅游景点,是旅游客流的便捷集散通道。基于西法城际铁路的功能定位、旅客列车开行方案、动车组交路,计算编组方案的服务频率,分析编组方案对银西高速铁路通过能力的影响,确定西法城际铁路的合理动车组编组辆数。根据西法城际铁路动车组选型原则,分别为本线列车和跨线列车选择适宜的动车组类型。研究表明,本线动车组可以选择速度等级为200km/h的CRH6系列,采用8辆编组和4辆编组结合的方式,可以在满足运输需求的同时保持较高的开行频率;跨线动车组可以采用8辆编组的动车组,选择与跨线铁路速度等级一致的车型。     

On a bayesian criterion for choosing predictive sub-models in linear regression

Summary We treat the model selection problem in regression as a decision problem in which the decisions are the alternative predictive distributions based on the different sub-models and the parameter space is the set of possible future values of the regressand. The loss function balances out the conflicting needs for a predictive distribution with mean close to the true value ofy but without too great a variation. The treatment is Bayesian and the criterion derived is a Bayesian generalization of Mallows (1973)C _p , the Bivar criterion (Young 1982) and AIC (Akaike 1974). An application using a graphical sensitivity analysis is presented.     

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT: MEASURE SELECTION BASED UPON FIRM GOALS AND INFORMATION REPORTING NEEDS

Performance measurement is critically important to business success. Collecting and responding to information that does not provide management with guidance to meet established goals is counterproductive and potentially injurious to the success of the firm. This research develops a framework that allows individual firms to assess unique measurement needs in light of their stated goals, and to select performance measures most suited to addressing those measurement needs.