Empirical Bayes analysis of log-linear models for a generalized finite stationary Markov chain

This article presents the empirical Bayes method for estimation of the transition probabilities of a generalized finite stationary Markov chain whose ith state is a multi-way contingency table. We use a log-linear model to describe the relationship between factors in each state. The prior knowledge about the main effects and interactions will be described by a conjugate prior. Following the Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators relative to various loss functions are obtained. These procedures are illustrated by a real example. Finally, asymptotic normality of the empirical Bayes estimators are established.     

基于公司治理结构的财务控制模式选择

公司治理结构是公司制度的核心,良好的公司治理结构是提高企业经营管理效率的基本要素。科学、有效的内部控制制度,是现代企业实现其经营管理目标的有力保证。公司治理能促使财务控制有效运行,是保证财务控制功能发挥的前提和基础,是实行财务控制的制度环境。财务控制在公司治理中担当的是内部管理监控系统的角色,加强和完善企业财务控制,应从完善公司治理出发完善企业财务控制环境,财务控制作为管理当局为履行管理目标而建立的一系列规则、政策和程序,与公司治理有着密不可分的关系。     

On the natural selection rule in general linear models

We consider a problem of selecting the best treatment in a general linear model. We look at the properties of the natural selection rule. It is shown that the natural selection rule is minimax under to “0–1” loss function and it is a Bayes rule under a monotone permutation invariant loss function with respect to a permutation invariant prior for every variance balanced design. Some other condition on the design matrix is given so that a Bayes rule with respect to a normal prior will be of simple structure.     

石衡沧港城际铁路互联互通方案研究

突出功能定位,发挥路网互联互通作用,是高速铁路互联互通方案研究的关键。在阐述石衡沧港城际铁路互联互通现状的基础上,针对石衡沧港城际铁路客流特点和功能定位,分析石衡沧港城际铁路石家庄铁路枢纽、衡水铁路枢纽、沧州铁路枢纽和黄骅铁路枢纽等互联互通主要节点枢纽,通过衡水、沧州和黄骅铁路枢纽比选方案分析,提出石衡沧港城际铁路在通道中的枢纽方案,为区域连接线、城际铁路在方案互联互通作用提供研究支撑。     

我国能源战略选择的一些思考

党的十七大把能源战略提到了重要的议事日程。实现全面建设小康社会的目标,必须坚持把能源作为经济社会发展的战略重点,必须对中国能源发展战略的构建依据和基本构想做较为系统、深入和全面的研究。文章分析了我国能源面临的主要形势,从保证供应、节能优先、结构优化、环境友好、市场驱动5个方面,提出我国未来能源战略的选择和建议。     

SELECTION BIAS CORRECTIONS BASED ON THE MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL: MONTE CARLO COMPARISONS

Abstract.  This survey presents the set of methods available in the literature on selection bias correction, when selection is specified as a multinomial logit model. It contrasts the underlying assumptions made by the different methods and shows results from a set of Monte Carlo experiments. We find that, in many cases, the approach initiated by Dubin and MacFadden (1984) as well as the semi-parametric alternative recently proposed by Dahl (2002) are to be preferred to the most commonly used Lee (1983) method. We also find that a restriction imposed in the original Dubin and MacFadden paper can be waived to achieve more robust estimators. Monte Carlo experiments also show that selection bias correction based on the multinomial logit model can provide fairly good correction for the outcome equation, even when the IIA hypothesis is violated.     

建筑市场信息不对称及治理对策研究

本文基于不对称信息理论,建立了委托代理关系下的建筑业信息模型,并具体分析了建筑业目前由于信息不对称造成的各种问题,最后对相关问题提出了几点治理对策和建议。     

Koalas in the land of the pandas: reviewing Australian expatriates’ China preparation

The unprecedented internationalization of organizations in the past two decades has made the need for cross-cultural awareness, appreciation and understanding in the daily operations of international businesses increasingly prevalent. In both academic circles and the popular press much has been written about the need for individuals to be cross-culturally sensitive, adaptive and responsive when managing across national borders. One of the key aspects identified in literature as contributing towards achieving cross-cultural sensitivity of expatriates is correct selection, pre-departure and post-arrival training and in situ support for the expatriate and his/her family. The research presented in this paper examines the selection, training and support of Australian expatriates in China, a nation that has loomed large in the current and future trading and expansion plans of many Australian corporations since it opened its doors to international commerce in the late 1970?s. Based on information gathered through semi-structured interviews conducted with expatriate Australians in Shanghai in 1999 and 2001, the results of this research indicate that, while organizations are recognizing the need to employ Australians who have prior China knowledge, organizational preparation remains negligible.