到期权证投机的原因、后果与控制

即将到期的权证频繁成为投机工具,引起市场上一些投资者和监管部门的疑虑,从而可能给未来衍生权证市场的培育造成不良影响.到期权证容易遭遇投机的原因在于其产品结构和交易制度上的一些特点或者问题,但即使如此,这一现象对市场的负面影响有限,并且可以进行合理的控制.     

浅论影响我国房地产市场的因素及因素的影响

本文主要通过分析影响我国房地产市场继续上扬的因素,包括我国宏观经济将持续保持良好势头、城市化水平的迅速提高、人民币仍处于升值通道中等;以及促使房地产市场回归理性的因素,包括加息、加大保障性住房的供给力度、提高房贷首付、房地产开发及土地储备贷款受到严格管控、开征物业税等;并且具体分析了它们是如何影响市场的,并最终得出结论。     

Debt-overhang banking crises: Detecting and preventing systemic risk

This paper shows how the debt-overhang distortion on bank lending can generate a self-fulfilling-expectations banking crisis accompanied by a plunge in the value of banks’ assets and a contraction of bank lending and economic activity. Moral hazard in banking adds an additional channel that can generate multiple equilibria, worsen the debt-overhang distortion, and deepen the crisis. Some signals of systemic risk include: high volatility and the presence of two modes in the probability distribution functions of the returns on bank-issued bonds and on portfolios of bank-issued bonds and equities; and high correlation between the returns on bank-issued bonds. Macroprudential regulation should discourage the exposure of banks to the economic and financial cycle by raising the capital requirements for banks with more cyclical assets.     

有所为,有所不为——试论中国企业家的扩张情结

在市场经济的发展过程中,为数不少的企业家热衷于以扩张作为企业发展的唯一模式。这在企业管理水平有限,生产和经营的技术含量较低的情况下,反而使企业效益不断递减,导致企业走上了衰亡的歧途。     

虚拟资本理论初探

虚拟资本的发展和各种创新形式的出现 ,对一国乃至全球经济产生了越来越大的影响。我国证券市场十年的兴起和发展 ,呼唤着人们对虚拟资本运动及其规律加以研究、发展和利用。研究虚拟资本旨在为有价证券经营者和宏观决策者提供理论依据 ,以便规范有价证券市场 ,倡导理性投资 ,遏制和限制非法投机心态和投机行为     

Price Volatility and Banking in Green Certificate Markets

There is concern that prices in a market for Green Certificates (GCs) primarily based on volatile wind power will fluctuate excessively, leading to corresponding volatility of electricity prices. Applying a rational expectations simulation model of competitive storage and speculation of GCs the paper shows that the introduction of banking of GCs may reduce price volatility considerably and lead to increased social surplus. Banking lowers average prices and is therefore not necessarily to the benefit of “green producers”. Proposed price bounds on GC-prices will reduce the importance of banking and even of the GC system itself.The paper benefited from presentations at Copenhagen University, Stockholm School of Economics and University of Iceland. Thanks are due to Lars Bergman, Torstein Bye, Pauli Murto and participants in the Nordic Energy Research Program (NERP).     

房地产宏观调控政策要充分考虑其投资品性质

房地产的宏观调控关系到中国未来的经济发展。房价飞涨的根源是投机，房地产投机的根源在于其本身的投资属性。房地产泡沫的挤压，只有真正从打压投机入手，才能取得长远的效果。因此，抑制房地产投资品性质，突出其消费品性质，是建立和完善符合中国国情的住房政策体系的根本。     

打黑舆论浅析——以网络舆论为例

2011年2月25日通过的《刑法修正案八》再次加大了打黑除恶的力度,体现了我国打击黑社会性质组织犯罪的坚定决心,但与此同时,也不能忽略社会舆论支持的重要性。2009年重庆掀起的打黑除恶斗争在全国乃至全世界引起强烈反响,取得了良好的社会效果,但网络舆论中也有不少杂音,这些意见的形成主要是基于反社会情绪的宣泄,需要利用传媒对其调控和引导。     

Speculation and Tobin taxes: Why sand in the wheels can increase economic efficiency

The current paper develops the microeconomic case for a Tobin tax. It combines the noise-trader literature with the Tobin-tax-policy literature. Noise traders cause economic losses by inappropriately cashing out their investments. A Tobin tax can reduce such activity, thereby conferring a benefit on fundamentals investors. The paper identifies the conditions under which these gains would be largest and provides guidelines as to whether a tax is warranted. There is a trade-off because Tobin taxes discourage fundamentals investors from trading, and there are occasions when they would rationally choose to trade but do not because of the tax.     

我国期货市场投机适度性研究

通过选择期货市场适度性衡量指标对投机是否适度进行基差和换手率的实证分析,基本判断我国期货市场存在操纵市场、多空逼仓等风险事件,投机性风险高于国外成熟市场,存在投机过度。造成投机过度的原因是多方面的．如期货法律不健全,监管存在漏洞,现货市场发展不完善,套期保值者不足等等。解决我国期货市场投机过度要从完善期货市场制度、加强现货市场建设、培育大宗期货品种、完善期货品种结构、大力培育套期保值者等方面入手。