江河经济与城市土地利用问题研究--"梅州模式"的评价、反思与对策

基于"堤围改造和房地产开发相结合,企业筹资进行堤围改造,政府以土地作为补偿"这样一个命题,梅州市区通过发展"江河经济",实现了综合治理江河水患、打造现代化生态城市的目的。文章对"梅州模式"在防洪、房地产开发、旅游休闲和交通等方面的效益进行了评价;对"梅州模式"带动下的城市化引发的水文效应进行了反思,并提出对策:①实施"与洪水共存亡"的治水方略;②启动污水处理费征收机制;③加快雨洪资源化研究工作;最后就城市土地可持续利用问题进行了探讨。     

再议稳定我国房价增长速度的政策有效性——新“国十条”下的思考

近年来我国房价增长速度过快已成为影响经济健康持续发展的一个重要问题,政府进行多次政策调控其目的在于减少市场中的投机行为、稳定房价的增长速度、构建一个健康的房地产市场。文章通过构建投机者的效用函数并对影响投机的因素进行分析以提出减少房产交易中的投机行为政策措施,达到稳定房价增长速度的目的。     

南京政府时期北四行有价证券投资研究

南京政府成立以后，为解决财政危机发行了大量公债。同时，1930年以后，中国工商业萧条，工商贷款风险加大。中国银行业纷纷将资金运用重点转向利息高而风险相对较低的有价证券。北四行作为当时国内著有影响力的金融集团，大肆进行公债买卖与投机，获取巨额利润。通过对这一问题的研究，透视当时中国银行业倚重于政府债券畸形发展的历史。     

股指期货所得课税规则的构建

股指期货交易是以股票价格指数为基础资产的标准化期货合约。交易中双方当事人取得的收益和支付的费用将改变交易双方当事人的消费能力和投资水平,从而产生相应的税收后果,应当认定为应税所得。股指期货交易应当是以风险管理权为标的的买卖合约,其收益应当认定为财产转让所得。但由于当前财产转让所得的概念尚不能涵盖风险管理权这一新型财产性权利的转让收益,应有必要构建新的课税规则以确定不同交易目的的股指期货交易的纳税义务及其课税时点等问题。     

Speculation and price bubbles in the Korean and Japanese real estate markets

This article investigates the possibility of speculation having caused the prices of land and housing to deviate from their given long-run equilibrium levels in Korea and Japan. We modeled speculation by incorporating the expected future price into the demand equation. The existence of growing rational bubbles was tested on Korean and Japanese data using the standard econometric technique for estimating linear rational expectations models. Our analysis of the Korean annual data suggests that a growing rationale bubble existed during the 1974–1989 period, nominal or real. Estimation results of the same model using Japanese annual data also confirmed the existence of a bubble in land price. Contrary to our analysis of land price data, the evidence of the bubble was much less obvious in Korean annual housing price data. We therefore estimated the model using quarterly data and found that the existence of a bubble could not be established in housing prices. This finding was also consistent with the trend of the rent-to-value ratio series in apartment units. Our results need to be taken with caution because our approach suffers from the common econometric problem of possible mis-specification of the model and because of the small size of the sample.     

噪声交易者预期与房地产泡沫——基于35个大中城市的实证研究

随着中国房地产市场的不断繁荣发展,部分城市房地产市场的泡沫化现象日益严重,房地产泡沫已成为学术研究和社会各界广泛关注的热点。将噪声交易模型引入房地产市场,通过模型的数理推导分析发现,形成房地产泡沫的主要影响因素包括噪声交易者预期、噪声交易者预期偏差均值、交易者风险和噪声交易者比例四个方面。在此基础上,进一步使用35个大中城市2002—2011年的数据进行实证检验,结果显示,噪声交易者的市场预期的确在很大程度上决定了房地产市场的泡沫化程度。     

凯恩斯论投资与投机的区别--兼评我国投资学教材中相关问题

本文从凯恩斯思想中提取关于投资与投机区别的内容,并通过比较指出我国投资学教材中存在的一些严重的理论错误与混乱,以期产生一定的思想纠偏作用。凯恩斯准确、精炼地定义了投资与投机,指出投资具有建设性社会功能,以及证券市场因便于投机而给投资造成障碍的深刻现实问题,论述了投资与投机的策略与特征区别。凯恩斯区分投资与投机的思想有非常重要的价值,对我国的投资学理论与证券市场建设具有重要指导意义。     

Speculation and volatility—A time-varying approach applied on Chinese commodity futures markets

Experts have long discussed and empirically investigated whether speculative activity increases volatility on commodity futures markets. Little empirical research, however, analyzes the role of speculators on commodity futures markets in China. Using time-varying vector autoregression models with stochastic volatility, this paper investigates for four heavily traded metal and agricultural contracts, how the relationship between returns volatility and speculation evolves over time. Our findings indicate that speculative activity has little to no impact on volatility. On the contrary, for all commodities examined, returns volatility seems to amplify speculation.     

Why Do Firms Raise Foreign Currency Denominated Debt? Evidence from Finland

This study examines the determinants of the decision to raise currency debt. The results suggest that hedging figures importantly in the currency–of–denomination decision: firms in which exports constitute a significant fraction of net sales are more likely to raise currency debt. However, firms also tend to borrow in periods when the nominal interest rate for the loan currency, relative to other currencies, is lower than usual. This is consistent with the currency debt issue decision being affected by speculative motives. Large firms, with a wider access to the international capital markets, are more likely to borrow in foreign currencies than small firms.     

风险及其商品特性分析

通过对不同风险定义内涵的剖析,结合风险利益和交换的概念,第一次对(投机)风险的商品特性进行了说明,明确提出了风险交换的概念,并对有关问题,特别是投机在经济社会中的积极作用进行了全面的分析。