Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes

This paper investigates the theoretical properties of a class of escape clause models of currency crises as well as their applicability to empirical work. We show that under some conditions these models give rise to an arbitrarily large number of equilibria, as well as cyclic or chaotic dynamics for the devaluation expectations. We then propose an econometric technique, based on the Markov-switching regimes framework, by which these models can be brought to the data. We illustrate this empirical approach by studying the experience of the French franc between 1987 and 1993, and find that the model performs significantly better when it allows the devaluation expectations to be influenced by sunspots.     

Turkish Currency Crisis of 2000–2001, Revisited

Turkey’s exchange rate based stabilization programme had collapsed within just 11 months of its implementation in the midst of a liquidity crunch in November 2000 caused by a reversal in the capital inflow. The onset of the stabilization programme created ample opportunities for speculative investors to make relatively safe one‐sided bets, and the initial success of the programme in bringing down interest rates implied substantial capital gains over securities obtained in 1999 and early stages of the programme. It was only natural that speculative investors would take the opportunity to realize these gains while the firm exchange rate commitment was still in place. The programme failed to deal with this contingency effectively, assuming that as long as it was implemented faithfully, long‐term investors would be forthcoming to takeover positions speculators would want to unload. That assumption proved disastrously wrong.     

Self-fulfilling Currency Crises and Central Bank Independence

We develop a model of a fixed exchange rate peg arrangement derived from the Barro–Gordon model of rules versus discretion. It is shown that the fixed peg is vulnerable to self-fulfilling currency crises in which the unemployment rate increases, the credibility of the rule decreases, but, paradoxically, the reputation of the policy-maker improves. Delegating monetary policy to an independent central banker does not prevent this type of crisis from arising, and can even make it more costly.
JEL Classification: F 3; F 4     

Futures Commitments and Exchange Rate Volatility

It is commonly suggested that certain groups of futures traders, such as speculators and small traders, exacerbate cash market volatility. Empirical research on the subject has been conducted in context of the relationship between price volatility and futures volume or open interest and fails to satisfactorily resolve such an issue. This paper examines the relationship between exchange rate variability and futures trading activity in the context of disaggregated open interest. The data and techniques employed allow for more specific inferences regarding which group of traders contribute to exchange volatility. The results suggest that while 'typical' levels of futures commitments are not destabilizing, surges in the level of commitments of large speculators and small traders causes exchange rate volatility. The actual release of the commitment-of-traders data, however, has no impact on spot prices.     

中国企业家“不务正业”的制度分析

文章从制度视角解释并分析了中国企业家“不务正业”的现象,制度安排及其内生的“游戏规则”决定了企业家行为的选择.在当前中国的制度环境下,企业家寻租、投机和投资移民既是一种无奈选择也是一种理性选择,改变这种现状的关键在于改善企业家生产和创新的制度环境以及完善企业家实业投资的制度环境.     

ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?

Paul De Grauwe's Eurozone fragility hypothesis states that sovereign debt markets in a monetary union without a lender-of-last-resort are vulnerable to self-fulfilling dynamics fuelled by pessimistic investor sentiment that can trigger default. We test this contention by applying an eclectic methodology to a two-year window around Mario Draghi's “whatever-it-takes” pledge that can be understood as the implicit announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program. A principal components analysis reveals that the perceived commonality in default risk among peripheral and core Eurozone sovereigns increased after the announcement. An event study reveals significant pre-announcement news transmission from Spain to Italy, France, Belgium and Austria that clearly dissipates post-announcement. Country-specific regressions of CDS spreads on systematic risk factors reveal frequent days of large adverse shocks affecting simultaneously those five Eurozone countries, but only during the pre-announcement period. Altogether these findings support the fragility hypothesis and endorse the OMT program.     

市场结合型日中物流管理系统的建立

本文认为,为满足顾客需要,必须从供应链整体出发,重新设计和构建物流管理系统。近年来,随着中国向日本商品供应规模的不断扩大,起支撑作用的物流管理系统也发生了显著变化,日中之间的物流管理系统以消费品为中心实现了从投机原理向推迟原理的转型。以前,中方向日方的供给体制是面向整个市场进行大量生产,但随着日本市场多样化和精细化的发展,这种体制的局限性不断显现。目前按照日方规格进行生产、按照日方市场需求组合物流管理系统的管理模式得到了较大发展。文章提出,反映每个顾客需求的供应模式以及与高效率生产体制互动的供应模式,在供应链战略中将越来越重要。今后日中之间物流管理系统战略的实施,应考虑如下两种模式:一是实施完全推迟战略,生产、物流管理均依据推迟原理,按客户的每个订单组织生产,直接送货上门,通过缩短交货期、采用高水平物流管理,来满足精细化的市场需要;二是实施与高效率生产体制互动的供应模式,按照国际标准生产,进行高效率生产,考虑日本市场需要,同时通过各种管理方式的有效组合,降低生产成本,满足顾客特殊需要。日中之间的物流管理系统必须与市场相结合,不断满足每个客户的需要,才能实现整个流通环节的高速度和物流服务的高水平。     

环巢湖大旅游区开发的战略构想

安徽省的旅游业发展较快,皖南、皖北都正在形成各自风格和特色的规模化旅游区域,而具有旅游资源、环境和区位优势的皖中地区,特别是巢湖周边地区却是门前冷落;在分析巢湖旅游资源、区位等的基础上,应对当前旅游业发展的态势,提出建环巢湖大旅游区的构想,来振兴皖中旅游业,以适应安徽旅游发展的总体需要。     

Currency crises and contingent liabilities

A contingent liability is a future spending commitment that is realized with some probability. International organizations emphasize the dangers of contingent liabilities when providing advice. Why? One answer is obvious—if significant contingent liabilities are realized they commit governments to substantial fiscal costs. There is a further reason: by taking on a contingent liability the government can increase the probability of the underlying shock taking place. This paper describes how the issuance of government guarantees and the methods by which they are financed affect the probability of crises taking place. It also discusses the determinants of post-crisis inflation and depreciation.     

Endogenous participation risk in speculative markets

This paper analyses the dynamic implications of an asset-pricing model with incomplete participation due to entry costs. It is shown that heterogeneity in entry costs can lead to the existence of multiple stochastic sunspot equilibria, whereby the number of agents in the market and asset prices fluctuate endogeneously over time in the absence of fundamental uncertainty. Such asset-price fluctuations occur despite the uniqueness of the deterministic equilibrium, and thus bear no link to the usual notion of steady-state indeterminacy. In addition to excess volatility, the equilibria exhibit predictable and conditionally heteroskedastic returns.