通货膨胀目标制:理论、实践及其启示——兼论我国房地产市场调控

通货膨胀目标是由官方公开宣布未来一段时间内需要达到的通货膨胀目标或区间,明确承认低的、稳定的通货膨胀率是货币政策的首要长期目标。从长期看,中央银行可以产生系统的影响的惟一宏观经济变量只有通货膨胀率。没有中央银行的默许,通货膨胀就无法扎根。虽然石油价格冲击、持久干旱、升高的税收或者新的政府法令都有可能推动物价指数上升,除非中央银行对此不闻不问,否则,通货膨胀是不可能长久存在的。     

银行信贷首付约束与中国房地产价格研究

本文引入银行信贷的首付约束,建立了带有房地产部门的动态随机一般均衡模型,为分析首付约束与房地产价格关系提供了一个可操作的框架。通过和实际经济比较表明,构建的模型对中国经济和房地产价格波动有较好的解释力。本文得到了首付约束冲击对房地产价格的动态影响过程,研究证实首付约束的正向冲击不仅抬高了房地产价格,而且冲击的持久性更强;同时首付约束的正向冲击还放大了房地产价格对货币政策冲击和产出冲击的脉冲响应。     

完善我国财政转移支付制度的思考——基于政府间行为分析

近年来，我国转移支付的规模呈逐年扩大之势，转移支付中的问题也层出不穷。本文通过分析我国财政转移支付的现状，认为产生各种问题的原因主要在于政府间事权与财权划分不清、预算的模糊和非刚性以及转移支付管理的弱化。其本质原因在于政府问权力的划分及由此衍生出的利益之争。因此，要想有效发挥我国转移支付制度的设计目标，就必须从清晰界定政府间的事权与财权，细化预算、保证预算的规范透明并对预算实施有效监督，以及制定规范转移支付的法律法规等方面去完善。     

INTERCHANGE FEES IN PAYMENT CARD SYSTEMS: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract This paper surveys the recent literature about interchange fees in payment card systems. Interchange fees are used by payment platforms to allocate the total cost of a payment card transaction between the cardholder's bank, the issuer, and the merchant's bank, the acquirer. Each time a consumer pays by card, its bank receives an interchange fee from the merchants' bank. Banks argue that interchange fees are needed to encourage the use of electronic payment instruments, whereas merchants claim that they artificially inflate the cost of accepting cards. This paper sheds light on the ongoing debate that opposes banks to the regulatory institutions or the competition authorities in various countries, by reviewing the theoretical results of the literature and highlighting some unanswered issues.     

手机支付在商业银行的发展及市场定位

未来10年中国将有80%的资金结算采用非现金方式。中国移动、中国电信、中国联通都将手机支付业务作为未来重要业务发展。如何在整个产业发展中获得相应的地位,建立联盟关系,全面提升商业银行盈利空间,是急需拓展市场、寻求盈利切入口的商业银行急需思考和解决的问题。     

Distal order effects in stated preference surveys

Stated preference researchers have previously demonstrated that a good's placement among a sequence of goods in a set of valuation questions (i.e. proximal order effects) can have a substantial impact on people's valuations of these different goods. However, the economic consequences of potential order effects stemming from other questions in a survey, prior to the valuation tasks, have received surprisingly little attention. Using an online climate change survey, we identify order effects created by prior attitude-elicitation questions, and we assess the potential impact of these distal order effects on willingness to pay (WTP) estimates for stylized climate change policies. We find that the order used in prior questions may change people's opinions toward various attributes of the good to be valued, and thereby change WTP by a substantial amount. This paper emphasizes the significance of order effects stemming from preliminary survey questions, and supports a call for diligence in the random ordering of all potentially influential preliminary information in stated preference surveys to minimize inadvertent effects from any single arbitrary ordering.     

网络支付安全的账户管理对策——基于国内外银行个人账户管理的实证分析

网络支付的安全主要是银行账户信息及账户资金的安全问题,银行账户是网络支付的源头,本文分析了国内外银行账户构造的不同,指出我国银行个人结算账户最突出的隐患在于兼具储蓄和支付功能,并据此从账户管理角度对网络支付安全提出了建议。     

修正的房价收入比:衡量我国城市房价泡沫水平的更优指标

改革开放以来,我国城镇居民可支配收入连续多年高速增长,本文通过构建一个包含收入增长的模型,估算城镇居民可承受的按揭还款房价收入比极值。在此基础上,考虑到实际购房分为首付和按揭还款两部分,提出了修正的房价收入比这一新指标,用于衡量首付部分或按揭还款部分是否存在泡沫。通过实证检验,发现我国房地产市场的泡沫主要集中在首付部分,且当首付比例超过20%以后,所考察的13个重点城市的房价都存在严重的泡沫。     

第三方支付发展研究

文章描述了第三方支付及其发展,分析了第三方支付发展中存在的风险及在市场、利润、监管与信用方面存在的问题。在此基础上针对第三方支付企业就盈利、合作、信用与创新方面提出了建议,同时也在市场、业务、机构及政策等方面提出了监管建议。     

Mortgage payments and household consumption in urban China

By exploiting variation both in mortgage payoffs and mortgage interest-rate resets, we find that a decline in mortgage payments induces a significant increase in nondurable goods spending, even when households have substantial amounts of liquidity. Following mortgage payoff, households increase consumption expenditures by 61% of the original payment. In comparison, households increase consumption by only 36% in response to a transitory payment adjustment induced by interest rate changes. Households with a higher payment-to-income ratio have a significantly lower marginal propensity to consume (MPC). These results have practical implications for policy markers seeking to design consumption boosting policies and are important for understanding how changes in monetary policy may affect consumer spending patterns.