A maritime container repositioning yield-based optimization model with uncertain upsurge demand

The role of container repositioning has become more important under the severe cargo shipping environment, affected by world trade growth, trade imbalance, slow steaming strategy and high container manufacturing cost. Low cost, better routing, and supplying equipment to higher yield cargo become the top criteria. A yield-based container repositioning framework is developed, followed by a constrained linear programming optimizing the container repositioning from surplus to deficit locations. The model incorporated change of destinations of empty containers and adjustment factors handling upsurge demand. The model is applied to optimize daily container repositioning operations with a better route, costs and equipment supply.     

Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability

Stock return predictability by investor sentiment has been subject to constant updating, but reaching a decisive conclusion seems rather challenging as academic research relies heavily on US data. We provide fresh evidence on stock return predictability in an international setting and show that shipping investor sentiment is a common leading indicator for financial markets. We establish out-of-sample predictability and demonstrate that investor sentiment is also economically significant in providing utility gains to a mean-variance investor. Finally, we find evidence that the predictive power of sentiment works best when negative forecasts are also taken into account.     

Capacity retirement in the dry bulk market: A vessel based logit model

The paper investigates the effect of vessel specific and market variables on the probability of scrapping dry bulk ships. Using a dataset from 2012 to 2015, we find that the probability of scrapping increases with age, but that the relation between vessel size and scrapping probability varies across the different segments. In addition, while the relation between earnings and probability of scrapping ships is negative, bunker prices seem to affect only the scrapping rate of smaller tonnage. Scrapping probability also increases with an increase in interest rates, freight market volatility and scrap steel prices.     

海运内贸煤炭水尺计重问题研究

针对海运内贸煤炭的水尺计重中现存的问题,通过对两千多只船舶的总结研究,归纳出4个方面关键的技术环节,以求从根本上遏制针对内贸煤炭的不法行为,维护正常的市场秩序。     

Seasonality patterns in tanker spot freight rate markets

The aim of this paper is to investigate the existence and nature of seasonality (deterministic or stochastic) in tanker freight markets and measure and compare it across sub-sectors and under different market conditions (expansionary and contractionary) for the period January 1978 to December 1996. The existence of stochastic seasonality is rejected for all freight series while results on deterministic seasonality indicate increases in rates in November and December and decreases in rates from January to April. Seasonality is found to be varying across markets depending on vessel size and market condition. Seasonality comparisons under different market conditions, an issue investigated for the first time in the econometrics literature using Markov Switching models, reveal that seasonal rate movements are more pronounced when the market is recovering compared to smaller changes when the market is falling. This is well in line with the low and high elasticity of supply expected in expansionary and contractionary periods of shipping markets. The results have implications for tactical shipping operations such as budget planning, timing of dry-docking, vessel speed adjustments and repositioning. As expected, the out-of-sample forecasting performance of these Markov Regime Switching models is lacking somewhat, a result which is thought to be a consequence of having to predict ‘states’ simultaneously with mean values.     

US shipping initial public offerings: Do prospectus and market information matter?

This paper examines the extent that public information, available prior to the initial public offering of shipping companies, is only partially incorporated in the final offer price. The sample includes shipping US initial public offerings that took place in the period 1987-2008, and the analysis employs a set of IPO, market, and firm specific characteristics. Our findings have both theoretical and empirical implications for shipping IPOs, and indicate that there is no asymmetry of information between participants in shipping IPOs. On the theoretical part, the partial adjustment theory of Benveniste and Spindt (1989) is supported, whereas the winner’s curse theory of Rock (1986) is rejected. On the empirical side, the probability of underpricing can be predicted by employing variables available to all IPO participants prior to the issue.     

Roots of growth and productivity change in Dutch shipping industry, 1500–1800

Shipping was one of the most dynamic industries of the pre industrial period. The article presents detailed estimates of the growth of output and inputs of the shipping industry in the Netherlands between 1500 and 1800. These are used to study the development of productivity in two ways: by comparing output with inputs (labour and capital), and by analysing the relationship between output prices and input prices. Both methods lead to different results, which we explain. It appears that productivity in this sector increased strongly between ca. 1550 and 1620 as a result of technological and institutional changes, such as the increased efficiency of the network of shipping routes. After 1620 labour productivity continued to increase because of factor substitution as wages increased much more than capital costs. The competitiveness of the Dutch shipping sector did not improve anymore after ca. 1650, however, which helps to explain why its rapid growth came to an end in the second half of the 17th century.     

Designing a sustainable maritime supply chain: A hybrid QFD–ANP approach

This study aims to design a sustainable maritime supply chain by taking customer requirements as the focus. This is achieved by an analytical approach combining Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Analytical Network Process (ANP) for guiding shipping companies’ design. An analysis of a major container shipping line is conducted to illustrate and validate the approach. The four main customer requirements are: (1) Cost and Price Competitive, (2) Pollution Reduction, (3) Efficient Use of Fuel and Resources, and (4) Health, Safety, and Security. The Use of Green Design Ships, Engines and Machinery is found to be the most important design requirement.     

Liquidity effects and FFA returns in the international shipping derivatives market

The study examines the impact of liquidity risk on freight derivatives returns. The Amihud liquidity ratio and bid–ask spreads are utilized to assess the existence of liquidity risk in the freight derivatives market. Other macroeconomic variables are used to control for market risk. Results indicate that liquidity risk is priced and both liquidity measures have a significant role in determining freight derivatives returns. Consistent with expectations, both liquidity measures are found to have positive and significant effects on the returns of freight derivatives. The results have important implications for modeling freight derivatives, and consequently, for trading and risk management purposes.     

船舶工业科技成果转化项目评价指标体系研究

船舶工业科技成果转化项目具有高风险、高收益、高增长潜力的特点。本文从船舶工业科技成果转化项目的特点入手，通过对成果转化项目的剖析，建立起一套综合评价指标体系，并应用模糊数学模型对船舶工业科技成果转化项目的转化效果进行了评价。