企业专利与外部融资

除保护技术输出的传统职能外,专利在企业和利益相关者沟通中也发挥着重要的信号传递职能。其中,专利在资本市场上的信号价值近年来备受关注,已有研究指出专利作为质量信号有助于企业获得投资者认可,并且专利信号效果依赖于投资者获得企业信息的多少。在此基础上,进一步讨论了投资者获得企业信息的内容对信号价值的影响。具体地,在负面信号情境下（企业过去的财务绩效差、收益波动性大、未来不确定性高）,专利的信号价值更强,而在正面信号情境专利信号效果减弱。利用来自深沪两市1 787家上市公司2000-2011年面板数据验证了以上假设,专利数量和外部融资之间存在正向关系,并且在负面信号情境下二者正向关系更强。稳健性检验进一步表明,发明专利的信号效应比非发明专利更强,而私企的专利信号效应比国企更强。     

Predicting financial stress events: A signal extraction approach

The objective of this paper is to propose an early warning system that can predict the likelihood of the occurrence of financial stress events within a given period of time. To achieve this goal, the signal extraction approach proposed by Kaminsky et al. (1998) is used to monitor the evolution of a number of economic indicators that tend to exhibit unusual behavior in the periods preceding a financial stress event. Based on the individual indicators from 13 OECD countries, we propose three different composite indicators, the summed composite indicator, the extreme composite indicator and the weighted composite indicator. The in-sample forecasting results for the 13 OECD countries indicate that the three composite indicators are useful tools for predicting financial stress events, while none of them outperforms the others across all the criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that for most of the 13 OECD countries, including Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, the weighted composite indicator performs better than the two others across all the criteria considered.     

言之有物:网络借贷中语言有用吗?——来自人人贷借款描述的经验证据

本文以“人人贷”平台的388522条借款标的为样本,基于借款描述文本构造P2P网络借贷词典,并探究文本中六种类型词语比重对网络借贷行为的影响,实证结果表明:首先,各类词语比重发出的信号对贷款人的投资决策有显著影响,积极类词语和金融类词语比重与借款成功率呈正相关,消极类词语比重、强语气词语比重和弱语气词语比重均与借款成功率呈负相关关系;其次,不同年龄层次和不同收入水平的借款人提供的描述性文本中词语信号对贷款人行为的影响存在较大差异,而性别差异和学历高低基本不影响词语信号作用的发挥;最后,各类词语比重发出的质量信号是部分有效的,金融类词语比重发出的信号有效且被投资者正确识别,强语气词语比重发出的信号同样有效却未被投资者准确识别,其他类别词语比重不是有效质量信号。     

Predicting distress in European banks

The paper develops an early-warning model for predicting vulnerabilities leading to distress in European banks using both bank and country-level data. As outright bank failures have been rare in Europe, the paper introduces a novel dataset that complements bankruptcies and defaults with state interventions and mergers in distress. The signals of the early-warning model are calibrated not only according to the policymaker’s preferences between type I and II errors, but also to take into account the potential systemic relevance of each individual financial institution. The key findings of the paper are that complementing bank-specific vulnerabilities with indicators for macro-financial imbalances and banking sector vulnerabilities improves model performance and yields useful out-of-sample predictions of bank distress during the current financial crisis.     

Monetary policy,fiscal policy and cross signal jamming

This paper considers the issue of rule versus discretion when the central bank and the government share private information but have different preferences over inflation and output. We demonstrate that if the monetary policy is rule-based, Intuitive Criterion selects the unique separating equilibrium in which the central bank signals a low supply shock by a low interest rate. Interestingly, discretion may be better than the rule for the central bank, contrary to the case of complete information. Also, we examine the effect of information asymmetry on the monetary and fiscal policy mix. We show that cross signal jamming whereby the monetary authority and the fiscal authority successfully jams an unfavorable signal of each other does not occur in equilibrium.     

False dichotomy alert: Improving subjective-probability estimates vs. raising awareness of systemic risk

Taleb et al. (2022) portray the superforecasting research program as a masquerade that purports to build “survival functions for tail assessments via sports-like tournaments.” But that never was the goal. The program was designed to help intelligence analysts make better probability judgments, which required posing rapidly resolvable questions. From a signal detection theory perspective, the superforecasting and Taleb et al. programs are complementary, not contradictory (a point Taleb and Tetlock (2013) recognized). The superforecasting program aims at achieving high hit rates at low cost in false-positives, whereas Taleb et al. prioritize alerting us to systemic risk, even if that entails a high false-positive rate. Proponents of each program should, however, acknowledge weaknesses in their cases. It is unclear: (a) how Taleb et al. (2022) can justify extreme error-avoidance trade-offs, without tacit probability judgments of rare, high-impact events; (b) how much superforecasting interventions can improve probability judgments of such events.     

RS码编码和译码的算法

本文针对用ＤＳＰ芯片实现ＲＳ码的编码器和译码器的要求，讨论ＲＳ码的编码和译码算法。