Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment

Assessing the reversal of sentiment in stock markets is needed because, according to the social mood cycle, the change of social mood over time is an antecedent of price movements. The purpose of this study is to empirically assess reversal of investor sentiment, to show the phases of social mood cycle from increasing mood to decreasing mood, and to explain the dynamic change in market inefficiency from increasing to decreasing. Growth modeling, developed particularly for dealing with the change over time, is used in this study for assessing the reversal of investor sentiment. The autocovariance structure of errors and the variances/covariances of the random coefficients are all taken into account in the model. The results have indicated that the change in investor sentiment over time is inverted U-shaped for the entire market. Moreover, arbitrage constraint and stock characteristics exert a joint moderating effect on sentiment reversal. Less arbitrage constraint can strengthen sentiment reversal only when the market for individual stocks is dominated by noise traders. Based on the results obtained, we discuss asset pricing, liquidity management, and market intervention.     

Optimal social security tax with myopic agents

Myopic agents lack the foresight to save for their own old age. It is generally believed that correcting myopia is a rationale for a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. This view has been supported by existing literature showing that the optimal PAYG social security tax should increase when people are more myopic. In this paper we obtain new results opposed to the traditional view. By establishing a very standard general equilibrium OLG model with myopic agents and endogenized marginal product of capital, we show that the optimal social security tax should be lower when people are more myopic. Our numerical analysis also shows that the welfare cost of the social security tax increases with people's degree of myopia. These results suggest that correcting myopia is not a clear rationale for the PAYG social security.     

Social capital and innovation in family firms: The moderating roles of family control and generational involvement

Drawing on the social capital literature, we examine whether the co-existence of distinct yet interacting social groups, namely family and non-family members, creates the conditions for increased family firm innovation. In particular, we theorize that family and non-family social capital have a joint positive effect on family firm innovation and this joint effect is stronger than the single effects of family and non-family social capital. In addition, we predict that while family control has a positive moderating effect, generational involvement has a negative moderating effect on the above-mentioned relationship. With supportive empirical results, our research makes important contributions to the existing literature.     

The influence of customer-to-customer interactions on elderly consumers’ satisfaction and social well-being

This study highlights the valuable role the hospitality industry can play in addressing a societal problem by studying how social interactions between elderly consumers and other customers influence the satisfaction and social well-being of the former. The data were collected from 268 elderly consumers in local coffee shops in the United Kingdom using a self-administrated questionnaire. The findings reveal that elderly customers’ interactions with other customers have a direct effect both on customer satisfaction and social well-being. They also show that social interactions with other customers have both direct and indirect effects on the social well-being of elderly customers. The study provides good evidence for how commercial hospitality settings can serve as a space for social exchange that helps to alleviate social isolation.     

Can media drive the electorate? The impact of media coverage on voting intentions

A growing literature uses media data to explain perception and behaviour in the economic and political context. In this paper, we investigate how media coverage affects political preferences, namely voting intention. For our empirical analysis, we merge 14 years of human-coded data obtained from leading media in Germany with results of the comprehensive German Politbarometer survey from February 1998 through December 2012. In contrast to the existing literature, we do not utilize access to certain media outlets, but use the tonality of articles and newscasts on political parties and politicians based on human coded media data. To account for endogeneity, we employ instrumental variable probit estimations. In addition, we control for a multitude of (internal) personal characteristics, such as age, and gender, as well as for (external) macroeconomic variables, such as business climate, unemployment, and inflation. The results show that media coverage of a political party has a positive and significant effect on the voting intention for this party. When media outlets cover a political party more positively, the electorate has a greater tendency to vote for it. Hence, we conclude that the electoral success or failure of political parties is at least partially caused by the media coverage on them. This hints on the special responsibility of media in democracies.     

What influences consumers’ intention to purchase organic personal care products? The role of social reassurance

Green and organic markets have grown rapidly in recent times, thanks to the increasing global popularity of having a healthier lifestyle. Rising consumer awareness of the risks of synthetic chemicals for humans as well as the environment have boosted the demand for organic personal care products (PCPs). To better understand the micro-mechanisms guiding the organic PCPs buying process, this study builds on the social proof theory by examining the drivers leading this process in two different national contexts. Partial least squares structural equation modelling was used to conduct a multigroup analysis on a sample of 473 consumers (n = 266 from Spain, n = 207 from Italy). Findings reveal the significant role of environmental value, product knowledge, convenience & quality, and information adoption. Furthermore, the study introduces and validates the new construct ‘social reassurance’ explaining the psychological mechanisms leading the organic PCPs buying process.     

Inferring latent social networks from stock holdings

We infer the latent social networks of investors using data on their stock holdings. We map linkages to portfolio weights using a portfolio-choice model. The precision of an investor’s private signal about firm value is assumed to increase with his connections in the city where the firm is headquartered. Using money-manager data, we find that managerial linkages to a city are overly dispersed relative to the Erdös–Rényi model of i.i.d. connections. Managers at the tail of this distribution with non-i.i.d. linkages have more university alumni in that city. Their stock holdings there outperform their holdings in other cities.     

Do your neighbors affect your bicycling choice? A spatial probit model for bicycling to The Ohio State University

Neighborhood social effects have recently become a focus of interest in transportation research, whereby transportation mode choice is not only affected by an individual’s characteristics and transportation system conditions, but also by the mode choices of that individual’s social neighbors. This study supports the neighborhood social effects argument, using a spatial econometrics approach and data from The Ohio State University (OSU) 2012 Campus Transportation Survey. A spatial probit model of commuters’ mode choices (bicycling versus non-bicycling) is estimated, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. The results show that the more OSU-affiliated bicycle riders are residing around an individual OSU commuter, the more attractive bicycling becomes, controlling for other factors such as gender, status, proximity to campus, bicycle infrastructure and attitudes. The results indicate that students and males are more likely to commute by bicycles. The probability of choosing bicycles decreases with distance from campus. In addition, proximity to bicycle infrastructure and physical environment both encourage respondents to bicycle. Feeling of safety, travel cost and concern for the environment also affect bicycling choice.     

Who could benefit from a bus rapid transit system in cities from developing countries? A case study from Kampala,Uganda

The present rapid urban growth of cities from developing countries causes negative externalities such as lagging infrastructure development. In combination with rapidly rising motorized vehicle use this leads to severe traffic congestion affecting the mobility of the urban residents. Therefore many urban governments are planning to improve their transport and mobility situations with mass rapid transit systems of which a bus rapid transit (BRT) is a rather easy system to implement at reasonable costs. However, due to high urban inequalities the effects of urban traffic and potential improvements of the urban transport system for the diverse group of urban residents can differ significantly. In our case study Kampala (Uganda) four main groups were identified through cluster analysis of socio-economic and residential data gathered through interviews: extreme poor, poor, middle income and rich. Each group experiences a different mobility with the extreme poor being the most vulnerable group. The planned BRT system aims to decrease the average travel time but risks to exclude the lowest income class since not enough attention is paid to the affordability of the system to all residents. Therefore we argue for a policy that works from bottom up and pays attention to the internal diversity of the population.     

‘Globesity’? The effects of globalization on obesity and caloric intake

We examine the effect of globalization, in its economic and social dimensions, on obesity and caloric intake, namely the so –called ‘globesity’ hypothesis. Our results suggest a robust association between globalization and both obesity and caloric intake. A one standard deviation increase in globalization is associated with a 23.8 percent increase in obese population and a 4.3 percent rise in calorie intake. The effect remains statistically significant even after using an instrumental variable strategy to correct for some possible reverse causality and ommited variable bias, a lagged structure, and corrections for panel standard errors. However, we find that the primary driver (of the ‘globesity’ phenomenon) is the ‘social’ rather than the ‘economic’ dimension of globalization, and specifically the effect of changes in ‘information flows’ and ‘social proximity’ on obesity. A one standard deviation increase in social globalization increased the percentage of obese population by 13.7 percent.