“Set a Sufficiently Ambitious Budget Target and Let the Automatic Stabilizers Work”. Will it Really Work in the European Monetary Union?

We examine the popular recipe in the title by means of an AD-LM-AS two-country model of the EMU, controlling for asymmetry in demand and supply shocks and in the monetary-policy transmission mechanism. Unless structural symmetry holds and symmetric shock occurs, national automatic stabilizers, even though supplemented with the common monetary policy, cannot deliver optimal stabilization in each economy. Inflation and output gaps are not closed and may be divergent in sign. Considering that a federal system of inter-regional insurance is lacking, the recipe under examination is too optimistic, while serious threat to EMU cohesion may arise. The econometric estimates we present show that existing national fiscal systems work very poorly as for the minimization, after shocks, of the dispersion of national incomes around the EMU average.     

"退而更化":中国合作金融的改良之路

合作金融的现代化从社会哲学上看,涉及到如何处理现代化与传统之间的紧张关系;涉及到否定传统、移植西方体制的思维方式对错的问题.从回答这个基本社会哲学问题入手,检讨中国传统合作金融组织——舍会的珍贵遗产,申明白愿原则是合作金融的灵魂以及这个灵魂对当今中国合作金融的改良所具有的价值.在此基础上,本文提出了以组建中国农村合作银行为核心的政策建议,而中国农业银行出售非农业务、回归农村,与农村信用社进行资本重组与业务整舍,是现实可行的一条最佳途径.     

Dual VATs and Cross-Border Trade: Two Problems, One Solution?

In recent years, two distinct but related questions have been raised with respect to value-added taxes (VATs). Concern has been expressed over whether it is desirable or even possible for both national and subnational governments in federal countries such as India, Argentina, and Russia to impose VATs. One reason for thinking that such subnational VATs are unlikely to be workable on a destination basis is the problem of cross-border trade. Of course, this same problem also arises within the European Union, where there is no EU VAT. Drawing upon Canadian experience, we argue that not only is it possible to have two-tier or dual VATs on a destination basis in a single country but that the existence of dual VATs may help deal with some of the problems of cross-border trade.     

The distinction between commercial and non-commercial bus services in Germany: Given by nature?

German public transport services by bus are characterized by a regulatory framework that distinguishes between commercial and non-commercial services. Contrary to the apparent views of legislators, this paper shows that costs and revenues are not the only parameters determining whether or not operators are able to provide services in a commercially viable way.Apart from the local characteristics of the specific service, we show that the classification of services as commercial versus non-commercial is determined in large part by the public transport authorities that set minimum quality standards to be provided by operators. Our analysis shows that the authorities awarding the contracts in some cases affect market organization significantly depending on how they make use of this power. Furthermore, market organization differs substantially with respect to the awarding structure and the contractual relationships, thus creating a challenge for operators and authorities in an embryonic market.     

欧盟在巴以和平进程中的作用分析

欧盟积极参与巴以谈判和巴以冲突危机处理，以经济和财政支持为主要手段、构建区域合作机制，为缓和巴以关系创造条件，提供多层次平台，积极帮助解决巴以冲突问题。然而，由于巴以矛盾的复杂性、欧盟成员国缺乏采取共同行动的政治意愿、加之美国对巴以和平进程的掌控，欧盟的影响力受到限制。在中东变局下，欧盟有必要联合中国和俄罗斯组成平衡美以关系的国际力量，提出新的巴以和平计划，为推动巴以和平进程发挥独特作用。     

Regional Production and Cost Minimization in the Republics of the Former Soviet Union

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the problems encountered early in the reforms made it obvious that understanding the system and structure of the economy during the Soviet period was crucial for predictions and recommendations. The present study analyzes the production of the republics of the former Soviet Union, by grouping them into the regions defined by common geographical and historical conditions, and by estimation of cost functions that represent the two major theories of international trade: the Heckscher-Ohlin and Ricardo-Viner models. The estimated parameters of the cost functions allow us to draw conclusions about the achievement of cost minimization and to calculate the elasticities that represent the comparative statics of both models. As a result of the analysis, it is demonstrated that the achievement of the cost-minimization goal depends on local conditions.     

COMMENT ON THE 2010 WINCOTT LECTURE, ‘EUROPE: HOW CAN THINGS GET BETTER?’

The increasing centralisation of government at European Union level is eroding individual freedom. Greater EU regulation of financial markets, as advocated by Charlie McCreevy, represents a further threat to liberty, while the measures advocated would have been ineffective at preventing the current financial crisis.     

An examination of the equity market price linkage between Australia and the European Union using leveraged bootstrap method

The paper examines the equity market price interaction between Australia and the European Union – represented by the UK, Germany and France – based on the Toda–Yamamoto causality test, which is bootstrapped with leveraged adjustments. A new information criterion is used to choose the optimal lag order. Weekly MSCI data covering the period 1988 to 2001 is used, divided into two subperiods to allow for a structural break arising from the ERM crisis of 1992. Results show that, during the period before the ERM crisis, no significant causal links exist between Australia and any of three EU countries. During the period after the ERM crisis, Australia also had no causal links with Germany and France but it had with the UK, with causality running from the UK to Australia but not vice-versa. Thus, Australian investors may find the German and French, but not the UK, equity markets, attractive venues for their international diversification. German and French, but not British, investors may also obtain the same benefit from the Australian equity market.     

Agricultural higher education in transforming Central and Eastern Europe

The paper discusses the major changes necessary for the agricultural higher education system in Central and Eastern Europe, including the former Soviet Union, to meet the challenges created by overall reforms in the food and agricultural sector as well as the adjustment of the global system of agricultural education. The issues arising from the need for reforms in the agricultural education system are presented in an overview of the inherited features of the system, an assessment of the current situation, a status report on the reform attempts and a discussion of the critical issues for the future.     

Patrilocality and human capital accumulationEvidence from Central Asia1

Anthropologists estimate that 70 percent of human societies are patrilocal, meaning that adult sons reside with their parents, and that wives go to live with their husbands’ families upon marriage. Yet very little is known about how this widespread social norm influences intrahousehold resource allocation and, through this, economic development. This paper examines the effects of patrilocality on schooling and household educational expenditures in Tajikistan. To identify the causal effect of living in a three versus two generation household on these outcomes, exogenous variation in housing availability across communities is exploited. It is shown that the impacts of living in a three generation household are important for both school enrolment and for educational spending. The results suggest that one reason why patrilocal societies remain poorer than those with nuclear household norms is that three generation households make relatively few human capital investments in the youngest generation. Patrilocality, which probably evolved to solve coordination problems in agrarian societies, may thus be a cause rather than simply a correlate of low educational attainment in developing countries.