Fiscal adjustment in a panel of countries 1870–2016

The financial crisis from 2007 and, even more so, the Covid-19 pandemic caused large increases in public sector deficits and debts in many countries and prompted concern about fiscal adjustment. This paper examines fiscal adjustment to debt and deficits for a panel of 17 countries over 1870–2016 using the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database. This long span panel is informative since it contains many examples of large fiscal shocks similar to those recently experienced. The results from reduced-form models suggest that large deficits or surpluses tend to prompt stabilising feedbacks, mainly through changes in revenue, and there is greater pressure to adjust on countries running a deficit versus those running a surplus. However, the debt–GDP ratio prompts much less stabilising feedback by expenditure or revenue.¹     

我国双顺差成因分析

笔者利用实证模型检验,得出我国外部失衡根源于内部经济失衡:首先,以贸易部门为代表的第二产业比例过高导致贸易顺差增大;其次,收入分配失衡导致国内消费需求和投资需求不足,进一步刺激双顺差的形成;最后,金融结构失衡导致企业储蓄率居高不下,也是双顺差增大的重要成因。因此,要调整外部失衡,应优化产业结构,提高居民收入份额,扩大内需;完善金融市场,以实现国内储蓄向投资的有效流动。     

On access pricing in telecoms: theory and European practice

This paper discusses European legislation concerning interconnection between telecommunications operators. An important and distinct element of regulatory policy in the European Union is that operators with significant market power are required to provide cost-based interconnection whereas other operators are not required to provide such cost-based interconnection. It analyzes the consequences of different interconnection charges for competition and investments. Using recent insights from the theoretical literature on competition in telecommunications, it finds that the socially optimal regulatory policy concerning interconnection has the same characteristics as that adopted in the European Union.     

On the analysis of a multi-threshold Markovian risk model

We consider a class of Markovian risk models perturbed by a multiple threshold dividend strategy in which the insurer collects premiums at rate c _i whenever the surplus level resides in the i-th surplus layer, i=1, 2, …,n+1 where n<∞. We derive the Laplace-Stieltjes transform (LST) of the distribution of the time to ruin as well as the discounted joint density of the surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin. By interpreting that the insurer, whose gross premium rate is c, pays dividends continuously at rate d _i =c?c _i whenever the surplus level resides in the i-th surplus layer, we also derive the expected discounted value of total dividend payments made prior to ruin. Our results are obtained via a recursive approach which makes use of an existing connection, linking an insurer's surplus process to an embedded fluid flow process.     

关联交易对上市公司盈余质量的影响分析——基于沪市A股上市公司的经验研究

随着国内资本市场的发展,关联交易的规模也在不断扩大,表现出交易频率高、涉及金额大的特点。关联交易具有正反两面的效应,即既可以降低交易成本、提高经营效率,又可以成为上市公司盈余管理的手段。本文主要从盈余动机的角度出发,以近三年沪市A股上市公司为研究样本,研究结果表明,我国上市公司的关联交易规模呈逐年上升趋势,且存在明显配股动机。关联交易会对盈余质量产生显著影响,且这种影响随关联交易规模的扩大表现出先上升后下降的的趋势。     

我国贸易顺差的结构分析及启示

为了找到近两年我国贸易顺差激增的原因，本文分析了2005-2006年我国贸易顺差的地区构成、贸易主体构成、贸易方式构成、产品类别构成和国别（地区）构成，并比较主要顺差省份的情况，最后就解决我国顺差激增的问题提出要抓住重点——抓重点省份、重点产品、重点贸易主体、重点国别，从而起到事半功倍的作用。     

人民币汇率制度改革之路

目前我国面临着巨额贸易顺差和国内通货膨胀的双重压力，在我国现行的人民币汇率制度下，这是典型的内部均衡与外部均衡的冲突。从长期来看，灵活的、浮动的人民币汇率配合以开放的资本市场将有利于中国经济的持续发展。本文对人民币汇率制度进行了研究，认为我国可以采用两步走的战略来退出目前相对固定的人民币汇率制。     

会计变更对企业盈余管理影响的实证研究

会计变更会对企业的利润产生影响,而目前我国企业对会计变更的披露还不够完善,这为企业通过会计变更来操纵企业利润提供了方便。本文对会计变更对企业盈余管理的影响进行了实证研究,指出会计变更对企业财务状况和经营成果有着重大影响,会计变更信息披露不规范的现状亟待改善。     

上市公司自愿性信息披露和盈余业绩关系研究

本文以2002年201家中国上市公司为研究样本,利用Meek的研究方法、构建了我国上市公司自愿性信息披露指标体系,并在此基础上分析了盈余业绩对我国上市公司自愿性信息披露的影响。研究发现,盈余业绩因素显著地影响我国上市公司自愿性披露程度。     

The worst absolute surplus loss in the problem of commons: random priority versus average cost

A good is produced with increasing marginal cost. A group of agents want at most one unit of that good. The two classic methods that solve this problem are average cost and random priority. In the first method users request a unit ex ante and every agent who gets a unit pay average cost of the number of produced units. Under random priority users are ordered without bias and the mechanism successively offers the units at price equal to marginal cost. We compare these mechanisms by the worst absolute surplus loss and find that random priority unambiguously performs better than average cost for any cost function and any number of agents. Fixing the cost function, we show that the ratio of worst absolute surplus losses will be bounded by positive constants for any number of agents, hence the above advantage of random priority is not very large. I especially thank Herve Moulin for helpful comments and suggestions. I also appreciate the feedback from Justin Leroux and an anonymous referee.