An approximation to the limit distribution of the epps-pulley test statistic for normality

Summary The approach of Epps and Pulley (1983) based on the empirical characteristic function is one of the most powerful tools for detecting any departures from normality. We obtain the first four moments of the limiting null distribution of the Epps-Pulley Statistic. Johnson- and Pearson curve fitting yields excellent approximations to simulated quantiles, and by modifying the test statistic the procedure may be carried out easily without the use of extensive tables for all sample sizes. Research done while the author was on leave at the University of Gie?en.     

The expected real return to equity

The expected return to equity – typically measured as a historical average – is a key variable in the decision making of investors. A recent literature uses analysts' forecasts, investor surveys or present-value relationships and finds estimates of expected returns that are sometimes much lower than historical averages. This study extends the present-value approach to a dynamic optimizing framework. Given a model that captures this relationship, one can use data on dividends, earnings and valuations to infer the model-implied expected return. Using this method, the estimated expected real return to equity ranges from 4.9% to 5.6% . Furthermore, the analysis indicates that expected returns have declined by about 3 percentage points over the past 40 years. These results indicate that future returns to equity may be lower than past realized returns.     

我国工业部门关税保护的动因结构、效应和优化——基于新政治经济学的经验分析

在关税减让方面,我国已经从2001年14.77%的平均水平降到了2005年底的9.9%①,实际上超前完成了入世承诺的内容.本文通过对我国入世过渡期工业部门关税从水平向结构改革的过程中,关税变动的复杂利益驱动结构效应的研究及其经验研究,厘清了关税改革的理论与实践依据,并对进一步的关税结构优化提出若干建议.     

Labour adjustment costs: Estimation of a dynamic discrete choice model using panel data for Greek manufacturing firms

In this paper we estimate a dynamic structural model of employment at firm level. Our dataset consists of a balanced panel of 2790 Greek manufacturing firms. The empirical evidence of this dataset stresses three important stylized facts: (a) there are periods in which firms decide not to change their labour input, (b) there are periods of large employment changes (lumpy nature of labour adjustment) and (c) the commonality is employment spikes to be followed by smooth and low employment growth periods. Following Cooper and Haltiwanger [Cooper, R.W. and Haltiwanger, J. “On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs”, Review of Economic Studies, 2006; 73(3); 611–633], we consider a dynamic discrete choice model of a general specification of adjustment costs including convex, non-convex and “disruption of production” components. We use a method of simulated moments procedure to estimate the structural parameters. Our results indicate considerable fixed costs in the Greek employment adjustment.     

对外开放程度度量方法的研究综述

从贸易方面度量开放程度的指标有外贸依存度、关税率、有效保护率和数量限制平均覆盖率、非关税壁垒覆盖率、价格扭曲度等。从金融角度来研究开放的指标有外汇黑市溢价、本国对外投资和吸收外资的流量、存量、增长率以及它们占GDP的比重等。有些学者运用计量方法测算选定指标的理论预测值,通过比较实际值与理论预测值的差异来度量开放程度。国内学者一般选择3至6个分指标的加权平均值来度量我国经济的对外开放程度。     

On the protection of cultural goods

We identify cultural goods as goods which are valued differently by consumers at home than by individuals abroad, and which are produced under scale economies. It is shown that restrictions on the trade of cultural goods can raise welfare in both recipient and source countries.     

实施知识产权战略——我国企业应对美国337条款的有效途径

我国加入世贸组织之后,中美之间的贸易战逐渐出现一些新的变化,在反倾销措施不断加强的同时,美国正在越来越多地使用对贸易和知识产权限制更为严格的337条款作为保护其贸易的手段,使中国企业蒙受了巨大的损失。因此,实施知识产权战略,是我国企业维护自身利益,跨越美国337条款这道贸易壁垒最有效的途径。     

中国-东盟贸易自由化的博弈分析

文章应用博弈论研究中国-东盟贸易自由化问题。首先通过静态博弈模型分析了中国应当采取"合作"和"首先行动"策略的原因。其次,分别建立了两阶段和三阶段动态博弈模型,阐释了中国-东盟之间需要签订书面协议的重要性,并应用关税博弈模型说明了自由贸易区内中国和东盟双方应以零关税率为合作的最终目标。最后,根据实际数据对理论模型进行了分析和验证。     

Estimating Discrete Joint Probability Distributions for Demographic Characteristics at the Store Level Given Store Level Marginal Distributions and a City-Wide Joint Distribution

This paper provides a solution to the problem of estimating a joint distribution using the associated marginal distributions and a related joint distribution. The particular application we have in mind is estimating joint distributions of demographic characteristics corresponding to market areas for individual retail stores. Marginal distributions are generally available at the census tract level, but joint distributions are only available for Metropolitan Statistical Areas which are generally much larger than the market for a single retail store. Joint distributions over demographics are an important input into mixed logit demand models for aggregate data. Market shares that vary systematically with demographics are essential for relieving the restrictions imposed by the Independence from Irrelevant Alternative property of the logit model.We approach this problem by formulating a parametric function that incorporates both the city-wide joint distributional information and marginal information specific to the retail stores market area. To estimate the function, we form moment conditions equating the moments of the parametric function to observed data, and we input these into a GMM objective. In one of our illustrations we use four marginal demographic distributions from each of eight stores in Dominicks Finer Foods data archive to estimate a four dimensional joint distribution for each store. Our results show that our GMM approach produces estimated joint distributions that differ substantially from the product of marginal distributions and emit marginals that closely match the observed marginal distributions. Mixed logit demand estimates are also presented which show the estimates to be sensitive to the formulation of the demographics distribution.The views expressed are not purported to reflect those of the United States Department of Justice     

世界贸易组织(WTO)协议对中国进境物品征税制度的影响——由一台iPad引发的思考

2010年,中国海关总署根据2010年第54号公告对作为进境物品的iPad征收每台1000元人民币的进口税,在社会上引起了极大争议。本文从分析此次事件出发,重点研究货物和物品在进出境监管中的区别以及两者征税制度的特点,进而讨论WTO协议对中国进境物品征税制度的影响及相应对策。