Investor attention,ETF returns,and country-specific factors

Using the data of 47 single-country exchange-traded funds (ETFs) traded in the U.S. from 36 countries during 2004–2017, this research examines the impact of investor attention proxied by Google Search Volume Index and home country-specific factors on different quantile of their returns. Evidence first shows that compared with U.S. investor attention, home country investor attention largely correlates with low to medium ETF returns, supporting the attention-induced price pressure hypothesis. Second, home country-specific factors significantly affect ETF returns at different conditional quantiles. We also find that investors prefer investing in a country with strong similarity to that of the U.S., supporting the cross-country information asymmetry hypothesis. Third, an intervening effect of home country-specific factors exists on the relationship between U.S. investor attention and ETF returns. These findings should help government authorities find appropriate strategies to attract foreign investment and upgrade the value of their capital market as well as provide a reference on efficiency for equity investors.     

Realised higher moments: theory and practice

This paper examines the incorporation of higher moments in portfolio selection problems utilising high-frequency data. Our approach combines innovations from the realised volatility literature with a portfolio selection methodology utilising higher moments. We provide an empirical study of the measurement of higher moments from tick by tick data and implement the model for a selection of stocks from the DOW 30 over the time period 2005–2011. We demonstrate a novel estimator for moments and co-moments in the presence of microstructure noise.     

SCENARIO GENERATION FOR OPERATIONAL RISK

Operational risk is an increasingly important area of risk management. Scenarios are an important modelling tool in operational risk management as alternative viable methods may not exist. This can be due to challenging modelling, data and implementation issues, and other methods fail to take into account expert information. The use of scenarios has been recommended by regulators; however, scenarios can be unreliable, unrealistic and fail to take into account quantitative data. These problems have also been identified by regulators such as Basel, and presently little literature exists on addressing the problem of generating scenarios for operational risk. In this paper we propose a method for generating operational risk scenarios. We employ the method of cluster analysis to generate scenarios that enable one to combine expert opinion scenarios with quantitative operational risk data. We show that this scenario generation method leads to significantly improved scenarios and significant advantages for operational risk applications. In particular for operational risk modelling, our method leads to resolving the key problem of combining two sources of information without eliminating the information content gained from expert opinions, tractable computational implementation for operational risk modelling, improved stress testing, what‐if analyses and the ability to apply our method to a wide range of quantitative operational risk data (including multivariate distributions). We conduct numerical experiments on our method to demonstrate and validate its performance and compare it against scenarios generated from statistical property matching for comparison. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

I.J. Bienaymé [1796–1878]: Criticality,Inequality, and Internationalization*

Two striking contributions of Bienaymé to mathematical statistics: (1) a completely correct statemet of the Criticality Theorem for simple branching processes in 1845; and (2) the derivation of the Bienaymé-Chebyshev Inequality, are revisited on the 200th anniversary of his birth. We use writings and archival materials available since the note of Heyde & Seneta (1972) to present a fuller biographical picture. Bienaymé's connections with Buniakovsky and Chebyshev are elucidated, and this role in furthering Chebyshev's international contacts outlined. A concluding section illuminates Bienaymé's understanding of the linear regression of one random variable on another in an actuarial context of random shocks.     

Intra-industry spillovers and innovation: An econometric analysis at the firm level

This paper studies spillover effects of innovation at the firm level and the comparability of generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators with maximum likelihood estimators of the earlier studies. Two sources of spillovers are identified, i.e. intra-industry R&D expenditure and intra-industry innovation output. This paper estimates a negative R&D spillover effect and a positive output spillover effect. Because of the substitution effect of intra-industry R&D spillovers, the elasticity of patent with respect to firm's own R&D expenditure is greater than those estimated in the earlier studies. With GMM, individual effects are incorporated into the models either by developing proxies for them or attempting to eliminate them.     

A Simulation Approach to Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Analysis

We deal with general mixture of hierarchical models of the form m(x) = f_øf(x |θ) g (θ)dθ , where g(θ) and m(x) are called mixing and mixed or compound densities respectively, and θ is called the mixing parameter. The usual statistical application of these models emerges when we have data x_i, i = 1,…,n with densities f(x_i|θ_i) for given θ_i, and the θ₁ are independent with common density g(θ) . For a certain well known class of densities f(x |θ) , we present a sample-based approach to reconstruct g(θ) . We first provide theoretical results and then we use, in an empirical Bayes spirit, the first four moments of the data to estimate the first four moments of g(θ) . By using sampling techniques we proceed in a fully Bayesian fashion to obtain any posterior summaries of interest. Simulations which investigate the operating characteristics of our proposed methodology are presented. We illustrate our approach using data from mixed Poisson and mixed exponential densities.     

Coordinating tariff reduction and domestic tax reform

A key obstacle to fundamental tariff reform in many countries is the revenue loss that it ultimately implies. This paper establishes and explores a simple and practicable strategy for realizing the efficiency gains from tariff reform without reducing public revenue, showing that for a small economy a cut in import duties (respectively, export taxes) combined with a point-for-point increase in domestic consumption taxes (production taxes) increases both welfare and public revenue. Increasingly stringent conditions are required, however, to ensure unambiguously beneficial outcomes from this reform strategy when allowance is made for such important features of reality as non-tradeable final goods and tradeable intermediate inputs.     

Antidumping and retaliation threats

We propose and test two ways in which retaliation threats may dampen the antidumping (AD) activity we observe. First, the threat of retaliatory AD actions may make a domestic industry less likely to name a foreign import source in an AD petition. Second, the prospect of a GATT/WTO trade dispute may make government agencies less likely to rule positive in their AD decision. Using a nested logit framework, we find evidence that both retaliation threats substantially affect US AD activity from 1980 through 1998.     

我国农产品进口保护的经济学分析

目前我国农产品保护的主要措施是关税及关税配额。本文运用图形对这两种进口保护措施进行了经济学分析,指出在国内需求增长的情况下,配额比关税更具贸易保护作用,而且,与绝对配额相比,关税配额更能以较低的社会福利代价获取保护效应。尽管关税配额不失为一种较好的保护手段,但统计结果显示,关税配额并没有起到有效的保护作用。最后分析了在目前条件下我国对农产品进行有效保护的可行途径。     

Do WTO members have more liberal trade policy?

This paper uses 68 measures of trade policy and liberalization to ask if membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) is associated with more liberal trade policy. Almost no measures of trade policy are significantly correlated with GATT/WTO membership. Trade liberalizations, when they occur, usually lag GATT entry by many years, and the GATT/WTO often admits countries that are closed and remain closed for years. The exception to the rule is that WTO members tend to have slightly more freedom as judged by the Heritage Foundation's index.