On necessarily welfare-enhancing free trade areas

The well-known Kemp-Vanek-Ohyama-Wan proposition establishes that if two or more countries form a customs union (CU) by freezing their net external trade vector through a common external tariff and eliminating internal trade barriers, the union as a whole and the rest of the world cannot be worse off than before. Owing to the fact that a Free Trade Area (whose member countries impose country specific external tariff vectors) does not equalize marginal rates of substitution across its member countries (in contrast to a CU), the literature has been unable to provide a parallel demonstration regarding welfare improving Free Trade Areas (FTAs). The present paper eliminates this gap. In extending the result to the case with intermediate inputs, the paper also sheds new light on the rules of origin required to support such necessarily welfare enhancing FTAs. We show here that provided no trade deflection is permitted, all that is required by way of rules of origin is that the goods produced within the union - whether final or intermediate - be allowed to be traded freely. The proportion of domestic value added in final goods does not enter as a criterion in the rules of origin.     

Immoral Imagination and Revenge in Organizations

Malevolence and cruelty are commonly attributed to a failure of moral reasoning or a lack of moral imagination. We present the contrasting viewpoint – immorality as an active, creative, or resourceful act. More specifically, we develop the concept of "immoral imagination" (Jacobs, 1991) and explore how it can enter into Rest's (1986) four processes of decision making: sensitivity, judgment, intention, and implementation. The literature on revenge and workplace deviance illustrates these processes.     

贸易摩擦背景下关税与货币政策反制策略研究

通过将贸易品美元定价约束、外汇噪声交易和关税反制等特征融入两国DSGE模型,文章对贸易摩擦背景下美国进口关税冲击的传导渠道以及中国的关税反制策略与货币应对政策有效性等问题进行了数值分析。研究发现,关税反制措施能够有效地对冲美国加征进口关税对中国实际产出、消费和净出口的消极影响,并有助于抑制人民币实际汇率贬值。若进一步搭配将出口品关税纳入利率调控框架的积极货币政策,对于经济扩张与保持汇率稳定都更加有效。但从长期社会福利角度看,积极货币政策对美国经济也具有明显的正向溢出作用,关税反制则会产生显著的福利转移效应,不采取任何关税与货币应对政策将使中国遭受最大的福利损失。因此,基于"打击最大化、自损最小化"原则,中国应对美国采取坚决有力的关税反击,同时保持货币政策相对中性、克制,以期实现"以战促和"的战略目标。     

大国最优出口关税的计算--对现有文献中一个臆断的更正

在目前的国际贸易理论文献中,普遍有大国最优进口关税的计算公式及其证明,但却很少有大国最优出口关税的计算公式。在偶见载有大国最优出口关税的文献中,大国最优出口关税的计算公式却是根据大国最优进口关税公式推断出来的,没有经过严格的证明。本文根据通常的线性供给、需求函数假设,应用局部均衡方法,证明了大国最优出口关税的计算公式。本文的结果表明,现有文献中根据对称方法推断出来的大国最优出口关税公式是错误的。     

Does love become hate or forgiveness after a double deviation? The case of hotel loyalty program members

This study aims to (1) examine whether a hotel's loyalty program is effective in weakening the desire for retaliation and perceived betrayal of high-tiered members after a double deviation and (2) determine which recovery tactic is more effective in attenuating their desire for retaliation and perceived betrayal. Scenario-based studies were conducted to achieve the objectives. The findings of this study suggest that high-tiered members are more likely than nonmembers to suppress their desire for retaliation and perceived betrayal during the transition from a single deviation to a double deviation, advocating the “love-is-forgiving” effect. This study also found that financial compensation and apology moderate perceived betrayal among high-tiered members. By contrast, only financial compensation attenuates perceived betrayal among nonmembers. This study contributes to the literature on loyalty programs and customer coping responses with novel findings on how members and nonmembers respond differently to service failure, failed service recovery, and recovery tactics.     

Managing customers’ undesirable responses towards hospitality service brands during service failure: The moderating role of other customer perception

This research examines how perceived service failure severity (SFS) in an interactive multi-actor service context may lead to customer retaliation and revisit intention via sequential mediation of dissatisfaction and brand hate. The research also examines how other customer perception, reflected in appearance (OCP-A), similarity (OCP-S) and behaviour (OCP-B), conditions these relationships. In this attempt, the research employs two-experimental studies (Studies 1 & 2) and two self-reported surveys (Studies 3 & 4). Findings from Study 1 establish that service failure leads to retaliation via sequential mediation of dissatisfaction and brand hate. This study also supports that other customer perception can shape the adverse effect of service failure severity on dissatisfaction. Further, in Study 2 it is established that OCP-B is more influential (over OCP-S and OCP-A) in mitigating the adverse effect of SFS on dissatisfaction. Followed by this, Study 3 extends the findings into a different setting, and also confirms the external validity of Studies 1 and 2. Finally, Study 4 incorporates the transactional vs. relational orientation of customers, and the findings elucidate that OCP-B (over OCP-A and OCP-S) dominates in mitigating dissatisfaction for relational customers. However, no such dominance is observed for transactional customers. The findings from the research provide novel insights for managing service failure in hospitality sector.     

加征关税如何影响美国贸易逆差及全球福利——基于美元本位下两国动态一般均衡框架的分析

本文构建了一个包含美元本位特征的两国模型,在此基础上分析了美国加征关税及引发的贸易摩擦对美国贸易逆差和全球福利的影响,并详细探讨了相关传导机制。在基准模型设定下,美国单方面加征20%关税会使得美国贸易逆差占GDP比重小幅缩小约0.40个百分点,美国长期稳态GDP下降约2.50%,其他国家GDP下降约1.10%,美国居民福利上升约0.60%,其他国家居民福利下降约1.20%。美国单方面加征关税在抑制全球贸易和生产的同时,会通过更加不公平的国际贸易恶化全球福利分配。当其他国家采取报复性措施时,其他国家自身福利并不会进一步恶化,但美国福利会大幅下滑,同时美国贸易逆差相对规模变化不大。贸易摩擦博弈的“囚徒困境”特征在一定程度上能够解释贸易战的发生。削弱美元本位地位能促进国际贸易公平性的提升,进而能减弱贸易摩擦带来的负面影响、提升全球福利水平,并能有效缩窄美国贸易逆差。     

Environmental and economic impacts of trade barriers: The example of China–US trade friction

The new age of trade wars could simultaneously affect the worldwide distribution pattern of the economy and environmental emissions. However, previous studies have focused on economic impacts, and on trade liberalization, while little is known about the equilibrium effects of trade barriers on the environment. Using a global computable general equilibrium model and taking the recent anti-trade policies of the Trump administration as an example, this study investigates the possible socio-economic and environmental effects of trade friction. Specifically, this study explores how the implemented six rounds of China–US trade friction and its different long-term development trends affect regional economic output, GHG and air pollutant emissions. Results show that trade barriers harm both countries’ economies and such losses have a certain permanence, while non-participants can benefit indirectly. Trade friction decreases participants’ GHG emissions, modifies global GHG emission distribution patterns, and leads to improved air quality in most countries. If governments continue to impose tariffs, global GHG emissions could counterfactually decrease by up to 5%. However, the change in trade patterns is not conducive to clean energy development in the less-developed regions, including the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and emission reductions from trade friction are insufficient to avoid catastrophic climate change.     

Foreign entry and domestic welfare: lessons for developing countries

This paper examines the effects of foreign entry, in the form of either imports or direct foreign investment, into an oligopolistic market. Incorporating a possible divergence between private and social costs, it first derives simple conditions under which foreign entry reduces welfare relative to autarky. Then, in a multi-firm Cournot model with linear demand and international cost asymmetries, it shows that foreign entry reduces welfare unless it captures a very large share of the home market. However, it also shows that an optimal tariff can prevent this welfare decline. Some suggestive empirical evidence and extensions to differentiated products and to merger analysis are offered. The paper concludes with implications for trade and investment liberalization, as well as for domestic and international competition policy.     

中美贸易摩擦对我国海洋渔业的影响及对策研究

中美贸易摩擦已经涉及我国海产品及海洋渔业产业,其中我国对原产于美国的海产品加征关税已经实施,美国已发布对我国加征 10%关税的海产品清单。研究发现,中美互为重要且较稳定的海产品贸易伙伴国,中美贸易摩擦对我国海产品生产、进出口、消费产生负面影响,主要包括推动海产养殖成本上升、导致美国自中国进出口份额下降近一半、引起海产品价格上涨等问题。提出了扩大国内国际市场、推进海洋渔业产业转型升级和加大海产品加工企业财税扶持力度等应对建议。