Simulated economic impacts in applied trade modelling: A comparison of tariff aggregation approaches

This paper assesses the performance of two recently developed tariff aggregators in reducing tariff aggregation bias by analysing Swiss beef market liberalisation scenarios. Specific relevant sources of bias are addressed: substitution effects on import demand, Tariff Rate Quotas and overprotection in tariffs. The aggregators are linked to a global large-scale partial equilibrium model and benchmarked against a standard aggregator. The choice of the aggregation method shows considerable effects on simulated economic impacts, specifically if the dispersion in tariffs or tariff cuts is large. A large bias is revealed in simulated gains from trade liberalisation using the standard aggregator. The impacts on traded quantities are found to be overestimated, while price and welfare effects can be higher or lower by switching to alternative aggregation methods. By reducing aggregation bias and depicting negotiated tariff schedules more directly, the proposed aggregators enhance the contribution of trade modelling to evidence-based policy making.     

Estimating Krugman’s Economic Geography Model for the Spanish Regions

This paper estimates Krugman’s (J Polit Econ 99:413–499, 1991) economic geography model using data from the Spanish NUTS 3 regions. The econometric formalization endogenously determines wages in a region as a function of income and wages in other regions. The specification adopted also allows us to study the relation between the agglomeration of economic activity, increasing returns and market access. The first result obtained is that the Spanish economy exhibits a spatial wage structure: wages in a region are positively determined by income and wages in neighboring regions. In second place it is found support for the structural relations of the underlying theoretical model, indicating the importance of scale economies and transport costs in shaping the Spanish economic geography.     

The long-run determinants of inequality: What can we learn from top income data?

This paper studies determinants of income inequality using a newly assembled panel of 16 countries over the entire twentieth century. We focus on three groups of income earners: the rich (P99–100), the upper middle class (P90–99), and the rest of the population (P0–90). The results show that periods of high economic growth disproportionately increases the top percentile income share at the expense of the rest of the top decile. Financial development is also pro-rich and the outbreak of banking crises is associated with reduced income shares of the rich. Trade openness has no clear distributional impact (if anything openness reduces top shares). Government spending, however, is negative for the upper middle class and positive for the nine lowest deciles but does not seem to affect the rich. Finally, tax progressivity reduces top income shares and when accounting for real dynamic effects the impact can be important over time.     

基于GIS栅格尺度的我国冬小麦生产潜力研究

小麦在我国粮食安全和农业发展中地位重要,冬小麦是我国播种面积最为广泛的小麦类型,产量占全国小麦产量的90%以上,科学估算冬小麦生产潜力是合理制定小麦发展战略、挖掘小麦增产潜力、保证粮食生产能力的基础工作。本文利用AEZ模型,在GIS支持下将土地利用数据、气候观测数据、作物属性数据综合集成,对冬小麦不同层次的生产潜力及其空间分布进行1km×1km栅格尺度的估算和评价,为我国农业生产和小麦发展战略提供基础信息和科学依据。     

Ownership discrimination and private firms financing in China

This study examines the financing/funding of private firms in China. Our results show that private firms are significantly less funded through formal financing channels such as bank loans than state-owned firms, and hence have to resort to alternative financing such as trade credit. Consistent with the theoretical expectation and literature, there is a substitution effect between trade credit and bank loans for private firms, but this effect is much weaker compared to that of state-owned firms. Moreover, while the univariate comparisons indicate that private firms obtain more notes payable than state-owned firms, the multivariate regression analyses show that the relation between bank loan and notes payable is positive and indifferent between private and state-owned firms.     

区域产业群落形成的生态位与聚集势

本文从复杂性系统自组织理论及生态物理学的视角,考察和研究了区域产业群落形成过程中产业生态位、产业集聚核、区域产业场、产业聚集势的作用和重要性,导出了产业聚集势及其势曲线随产业场的变化情况,在一定程度上分析和揭示了区域产业群落的生成机理和发展演化规律.     

人民币实际汇率波动对中美贸易收支的影响——基于1990—2009年时间序列分析

基于协整理论、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验并根据中国和美国1990-2009年的季度数据,分析人民币实际汇率变动对中美贸易收支的影响.结果表明:影响中美贸易收支的主要因素包括美国的实际GDP、中国的实际GDP和人民币实际汇率,且三者的影响力次第减弱,中美贸易也存在明显的J曲线效应.因此,改善中美贸易失衡应扩大中国内需、调整业口结构和改革人民币汇率制度.     

“十二五”时期广东节能潜力与实现途径研究

“十二五”时期,广东的节能潜力即单位GDP能耗下降率的潜在空间在13．3％～19．2％之间,为实现国家下达的5年单位GDP能耗下降18％的节能目标,需在全省范围内建立合理的能源消费增量补偿与调节机制。     

外贸顺差、贸易筛选与就业关系研究——基于月度数据的再检验

本文利用2001-2009年的对外贸易月度数据,考察了中国出口与外贸顺差对就业水平的影响。研究表明,在暂时不考虑进口的情况下,出口规模的扩大对就业依然产生正向冲击;但是考虑进口后,外贸顺差的就业效应却呈现出先促进后抑制的效应。因此,传统的菲利普斯曲线机制认为的外贸顺差促进就业的观点可能需要重新修正,而Helpman等提出的"贸易筛选"机制在中国当前的外贸顺差规模下,将在劳动力市场上发挥主要作用。鉴于此,中国应在进一步提高出口规模和质量的同时,重视进口对经济发展的促进作用,将外贸顺差规模控制在合理范围。     

论全面深化改革背景下上海自贸区的创新发展

上海自贸区是继经济特区之后中国特色社会主义市场经济的又一探索,承载着全面社会改革的重任,分析其发展战略意义、改革创新点、发展机遇和发展原则,对确保自贸区良性发展及进一步丰富社会主义市场经济理论有重要意义。