Determinants of the real exchange rate in the long-run for developing and emerging countries: a theoretical and empirical approach

This paper presents a new framework for the determinants of real exchange in the long-run in developing and emerging countries (DECs). We assume that currencies should be regarded as an asset. In consequence, dealers in the foreign exchange market play a crucial role on its dynamics. To set our model, we connect the model developed by Kaltenbrunner, which is grounded on chapter 17 of the General Theory, with productivity’s differential effect. By doing so, it states that even short-run factors and monetary variables affect the long-run real exchange rate. Moreover, it points out that the hierarchical nature of the international monetary system is crucial to understand exchange rate movements in DECs. Besides presenting such theoretical approach, our contribution is to test it empirically for 45 DECs from 1990 to 2008 by applying econometric techniques appropriate for panel data. We use a new data-set, which comprises, among other variables, foreign portfolio flow, interest rate differential, external vulnerability measures, and international liquidity, on annual basis. The empirical results endorse this framework. Overall, it shows the primacy of financial factors as determinants of the long-run real exchange rate and points to the endogenous and self-perpetuating nature of international monetary system hierarchy.     

Microfinance and child mortality

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) offer targeted opportunities for the poor to generate additional income with a range of financial services including credit, insurance, savings accounts and money transfers. Aside from reducing poverty, microfinance can potentially improve health because it is the poor who are usually more constrained from health investments due to limited budgets. Furthermore, microfinancing specifically targets women, who are more likely to spend additional income on children’s well-being. Finally, several MFIs have also begun to offer health-related services, such as health education, health-care financing, clinical care, training community health workers, health micro-insurance and linkages to public and private health providers. Using a new data set, this article conducts the first multi-country study of the effect of microfinance on child mortality, the health outcome, which is most sensitive to the effects of absolute deprivation. Our findings confirm that an increase in the proportion of MFI clients in a country is significantly associated with lower under-five and infant mortality rates. We conclude that if MFIs’ educational and health services have indeed caused improvements in health outcomes at the community level, then it may be important for governments to complement these activities with similar campaigns, particularly in remote areas where MFI penetration is low.     

Causality tests of budget and current account deficits: Cross-country comparisons

This study attempts to determine the causal relationship between budget and current account deficits as well as the direction of such causality. A selected sample of some developed and developing countries with annual time series data is used and cointegration techniques are applied to bring evidence regarding this important issue. Our results do not support any long-run relationship between the two deficits for developed countries while the data for developing countries do not reject such a relationship. However, our results suggest a causal relationship between the two deficits for most of the sample countries. First version received: November 1996/final version received: September 1998     

我国对最不发达国家经贸关系的新战略及政策

在中国加入世界贸易组织十周年之际,本文通过对比中国、美国以及欧盟与最不发达国家间的贸易商品结构,总结及分析了我国与最不发达国家经贸关系新发展及存在的问题和原因,提出应加快制定和实施对最不发达国家经贸新战略及政策。     

我国通货膨胀路径中的结构性变化与非线性调整——基于TV-STAR模型的实证分析

本文使用TV-STAR模型研究发现,我国通货膨胀路径中结构性变化与非线性共存。结构性变化发生在1995年左右,结构性变化前的通货膨胀路径中存在高、低两个均衡点,结构性变化后的通货膨胀路径中存在唯一均衡点,但通货膨胀的持久性较变化前有较大幅度上升。同时发现通货膨胀与通货紧缩的非线性调整具有明显的非对称性,其临界值为4.091。基于广义脉冲响应函数发现,结构性变化后,我国通货膨胀对外来冲击的反应幅度下降,但反应速度上升。另外,正、负向冲击对通货膨胀的影响存在明显的非线性和非对称性。在多数情况下,正向冲击的影响更大,也更持久。在短期内,通货膨胀机制下的冲击影响要明显强于在通货紧缩机制下,但从长期来开,通货紧缩机制下的冲击影响更持久。在结构性变化之后,这种冲击的非对称效应也更明显。     

国有企业支付了更高的职工工资吗?

对职工个人层面的研究表明,股权性质显著影响职工平均工资,但已有文献对于企业层面上股权性质如何影响职工平均工资尚缺乏深入探讨。以1999—2009年间我国A股上市企业为样本,本文深入考察了国有股权性质对职工平均工资的影响。研究结果表明,从整体上看,样本期间国有企业支付了更高的职工工资,而且这一结论在控制了行政垄断、企业规模和职工教育背景等因素之后依然成立。进一步区分国有企业控制级别和职工工资类别后发现,与非国有企业相比,国有企业普通职工工资显著更高。其中,中央政府控制的国有企业普通职工工资显著高于地方政府控制的国有企业,而地方政府控制的国有企业又显著高于非国有企业;国有企业高管薪酬与非国有企业并无显著差异,但中央政府控制的国有企业高管薪酬显著高于地方政府控制的国有企业和非国有企业。上述研究结论有助于理解转轨经济背景下国有股权性质对职工工资的影响,丰富了职工工资的相关研究,并对推进我国国有企业工资体制改革具有借鉴意义。     

试析我国新疆与中亚国家的经贸合作

新疆与中亚国家加强经贸合作,是双赢发展的需要。新疆应抓住机遇,提高经济发展的国际竞争力。积极与中亚国家加强经贸合作。本文分析了新疆与中亚国家经贸合作的现状,指出了新疆与中亚国家经贸合作中存在的问题,最后展望分析了新疆与中亚国家经贸合作前景。     

发展中国家的货币错配研究

货币错配是开放型经济普遍存在的一个客观现象,是最近二十多年发展中国家货币金融危机高频发生的一个重要原因,同时使得解决危机的成本变得更为高昂。发展中国家应该理解货币错配形成的机理,高度重视货币错配带来的负面影响,采取有效措施缓解和控制货币错配风险,维护自身金融安全。     

中小企业发展支持体系:中国与发达国家比较

最近半个世纪以来,西方发达国家纷纷开始重视中小企业的发展,并致力于打造完整的中小企业发展支持体系.英国对中小企业的技术创新支持,美国对中小企业的政府采购支持,德国对中小企业信用担保支持,日本时中小企业的融资支持,对中国打造中小企业发展支持体系具有重要借鉴意义.     

A hybrid system-identification method for forecasting telecommunications product demands

A crucial challenge for telecommunications companies is how to forecast changes in demand for specific products over the next 6 to 18 months—the length of a typical short-range capacity-planning and capital-budgeting planning horizon. The problem is especially acute when only short histories of product sales are available. This paper presents a new two-level approach to forecasting demand from short-term data. The lower of the two levels consists of adaptive system-identification algorithms borrowed from signal processing, especially, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) methods [Hidden Markov Models: Estimation and Control (1995) Springer Verlag]. Although they have primarily been used in engineering applications such as automated speech recognition and seismic data processing, HMM techniques also appear to be very promising for predicting probabilities of individual customer behaviors from relatively short samples of recent product-purchasing histories. The upper level of our approach applies a classification tree algorithm to combine information from the lower-level forecasting algorithms. In contrast to other forecast-combination algorithms, such as weighted averaging or Bayesian aggregation formulas, the classification tree approach exploits high-order interactions among error patterns from different predictive systems. It creates a hybrid, forecasting algorithm that out-performs any of the individual algorithms on which it is based. This tree-based approach to hybridizing forecasts provides a new, general way to combine and improve individual forecasts, whether or not they are based on HMM algorithms. The paper concludes with the results of validation tests. These show the power of HMM methods to forecast what individual customers are likely to do next. They also show the gain from classification tree post-processing of the predictions from lower-level forecasts. In essence, these techniques enhance the limited techniques available for new product forecasting.