银行业务地域特征和银行机构集聚

由于交通成本和信息成本的存在,银行业务呈现出一定的地域特征。不同的地域特征使得各个地区适合集聚的银行业务也存在差异。地方政府应该根据经济发展水平、金融业务资源禀赋、地理环境和金融生态环境等因素的实际情况,选择合适的政策措施,促进银行业务和银行机构的集聚。     

铁路的长期经济影响:基于中国1980年铁路线的研究

铁路与经济发展之间的关系得到了大量的研究,但均集中于短期经济影响,且很少关注铁路在发展中国家从传统农业社会向工业社会转型过程中的作用。文章使用中国1980年的铁路线研究了铁路在中国转型期对县域经济发展的长期影响。研究发现,铁路开通对县域经济发展具有显著的长期促进作用,具体来说,以2000年数据为例,1980年铁路线对以GDP为衡量指标的经济发展的年均促进作用为1.16%。排除了无法观测因素和溢出效应、控制县级异质性、以及使用"三线建设"作为外生冲击的结果均支持上述结论。机制检验发现,铁路促进了县域层面的工业化,同时还显著增加了县域层面的外商投资和出口,进而促进了经济发展。本文的研究不仅提供了铁路的长期经济影响的经验证据,同时也揭示了以铁路为代表的基础设施对经济转型的作用,从而有助于理解中国经济增长奇迹,也为其他发展中国家转型提供了借鉴。     

南通市综合交通枢纽布局优化对策

为推进南通市交通运输转型发展,优化交通基础设施空间一体布局,在经济增长中发挥好支撑引领作用,在阐述南通市综合交通枢纽布局现状、发展定位和存在问题的基础上,从强化对外综合运输通道建设、畅通周边城市城际交通网络、提升市域集散网覆盖通达水平、大力发展多式联运系统和促进综合货运枢纽高效衔接5个方面提出南通市综合交通枢纽布局优化对策。综合交通枢纽的布局优化,有利于完善南通市的枢纽功能,进一步提升其在全国综合交通体系中的战略地位,发展枢纽经济,实现经济转型,加快打造成长三角北冀经济中心。     

The rebound effect on energy efficiency improvements in China’s transportation sector: A CGE analysis

Energy use is becoming more efficient due to technological innovations. We focused on the transportation sector in China to develop a national multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for analyzing the rebound effect from an improvement of 10% in the energy efficiency. We compared the size of the energy rebound effect at both the macroeconomic and sectoral levels in different transportation modal subsectors, namely rail, road, water, and air travel. The findings showed that the magnitude of the rebound effect varies across the transportation modes. This is particularly true for the air transportation sector, which has an economy-wide rebound effect of 30.1% and an own-sector rebound effect of 74.6% because of a sharp increase in the export demand for air transport services. We also quantitatively evaluated the contribution of energy efficiency improvement in the transportation sector to China’s economic growth and carbon reductions and found a positive dividend effect on the economy as well as the environment. The modeling results suggest that improving overall transportation energy efficiency by 10% generates an economy-wide welfare gain of approximately 29 billion yuan, while 19 billion yuan are attributable to a more efficient road transportation subsector. Furthermore, to offset the effects of these mode-specific rebound effects, we simulated the effectiveness of different policies and solutions. These included economic instruments in the form of energy, environmental, and carbon taxes, household transport consumption structure adjustments, and energy structure adjustments. This study revealed that combining these sustainable development policies offers opportunities for economy-wide multisectoral improvements in energy savings, emissions reduction, and economic benefits.     

治理理论视阈下交通运输社会管制制度分析

改革开放以来,我国交通运输业取得了令人瞩目的成就,但与此同时,交通安全、环境污染等问题也日益突出。在交通运输行业我们的社会管制制度存在着错位、越位和缺位等问题,为此本文运用了新制度经济学的制度变迁理论和公共治理理论对我国交通运输社会管制制度进行了分析探讨,认为传统的交通运输行业政府管理模式具有强大的惯性作用,决定了我国交通运输社会管制的制度变迁表现出比较明显的“路径依赖”性,正处于制度从均衡状态——不均衡状态——均衡状态中的不均衡状态即锁定状态,要实现交通运输社会管制制度的创新,我们必须要改革交通运输行业政府管理模式,由交通运输行业政府单极治理模式向社会、公众和政府的交通运输多元治理模式转变。     

论营改增对交通运输企业利润的影响——以中海发展股份公司为例

2016年5月1日,营改增将进行最后四个行业的全面试点,从2012年首先开始于交通运输业等行业的营改增,已经进入了收关之际.从历经4年多的试点结果来看,从2012年试点到2015年底,"营改增"已经累计减税5000多亿元,结构性减税效果明显.交通运输业作为我国重要的行业,又是第一批试点行业,虽然交通运输业营改增后,流转税负呈下降的趋势,但对交通运输行业的利润影响是否是正向的还需要科学的研究,因此,本文以中海发展股份公司为例,分析营改增后影响交通运输业利润的变化及因素,并给出相应的建议.     

Coordination in retailer-carrier channels for long term planning

We study a retailer-carrier channel for the purpose of long term planning and coordination. Here, the term channel represents the business interaction between the retailer and the carrier. The retailer sells a particular item with price-dependent demand, whereas the carrier is responsible for transporting the item to the retailer's site. We characterize the profit functions of each channel member as well as the total channel profit. We consider two specific channel structures: (i) the centralized channel and (ii) the decentralized channel. Under the first channel structure, the goal is to set the retail price so as to maximize the total channel profit. Under the latter, the carrier and the retailer choose their own policy parameters, i.e., the freight rate for the carrier and the retail price for the retailer, so as to maximize their individual profits. We model the decentralized channel as a Stackelberg Game and propose a coordination mechanism between the retailer and the carrier in which the retailer signals a price multiplier to the carrier. We illustrate that this mechanism could provide win-win solutions for both parties and present analytical and numerical results on the efficiency of channel coordination. We demonstrate that coordination in retailer-carrier channels can be as promising as supplier-retailer channels. We also discuss the effects of retailer-carrier coordination on inventory levels.     

Dynamic routing of time-sensitive air cargo using real-time information

The route planning of time-sensitive air-cargo is becoming more important with the growing air-network congestion and delays. We consider a freight forwarder’s routing of a time-sensitive air-cargo in the presence of real-time and historical information regarding flight availability, departure delays and travel times. A departure delay estimation model is developed to account for real-time information inaccuracy. A novel Markov decision model is formulated and solved with online backward induction. Through synthetic experiments and case studies, we demonstrate that dynamic routing with real-time information can improve delivery reliability and reduce expected cost.     

Spain: highs and lows of 20 years of HSR operation

This paper has been written in response to the Viewpoint contribution by the author Button (2012) entitled: “Is there any economic justification for high-speed railways in the United States?”. In this article, the Spanish HSR high-speed rail network is used as an argument against certain HSR investments. Several of the data presented by the author are misleading and some of the information given in connection with Spain is incomplete. As the Journal of Transport Geography is widely read by policymakers and the scientific community, Button’s misrepresentation could cause serious damage. We therefore set out to clarify the data used by Kenneth Button and to explore some points in greater detail, although in no case eschewing criticism of Spain. Although excessive Spanish investment in public infrastructure over the last twenty years has probably had a negative impact on the real estate bubble, investments in HSR infrastructure in Spain have specifically been accompanied by two particular facts that need to be distinguished from other countries’ experience. These facts cannot be overlooked and will be discussed in this paper. They relate firstly to the total amount of European funds used in HSR construction and secondly to the technological and scientific innovations developed in Spain linked to the HSR market.     

Adding a freight network to a national interstate input–output model: a TransNIEMO application for California

The state of the nation’s infrastructure is the subject of widespread discussion and comment because it is thought to include many deteriorating and unsafe bridges. Ever since the terrorist attacks of 9/11, there has been increasing concern over the extent to which an attack on infrastructure could result in serious economic disruption. This research develops a model to analyze the economic consequences of an attack on a major element of the highway network. We add a freight network to a national multiregional economic impact model and make freight traffic flows endogenous. The use of a sub-national interstate model recognizes that most infrastructure planning is at the state level and most political leaders’ interest is local. We base our approach on the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) and refer to an elaboration that we name Transportation network and the National Interstate Economic Model (TransNIEMO). The new model enables us to study the state-specific and industry-specific economic impacts of some significant changes in the nature of highway freight movements. We tested the model for selected freight movements in and out of California. The results are entirely plausible and encourage us to elaborate and test the model for hypothetical disruptions of freight traffic throughout the US.