基于逼近理想解方法的股票长期投资决策方法研究

为了更好的对股票长期投资问题进行决策,在分析股票投资特点的基础上,从宏观经济环境、行业状况、公司经营状况和股票价值等方面分析了影响投资决策的主要因素,并构建了评价指标体系。将逼近理想解的评价方法引入股票长期投资决策中,为该类问题的有效解决提供了一个新的思路。     

财务管理神经网络智能决策支持系统的研究

财务管理决策支持系统(简称DSS)是辅助各级决策者实现财务管理的科学决策系统。它主要通过人机交互的方式,利用大量财务数据和众多模型来实现科学性的管理。神经网络是一种非线性复杂网络系统,它主要由许多类似于神经元的处理单元组合而成。将财务管理和神经网络和决策支持系统结合可以实现财务系统的自适应并行联想推理及数据开采的自动化,使财务管理、决策、执行更加科学化、规范化、智能化。     

Informal Caregiving and the Retirement Decision

The probability of providing informal care grows with one's own age. While labor market effects due to caregiving are moderate, they could be concentrated in the years close to retirement. Therefore, I investigate whether care in the previous year leads to retirement in the year after by using German Socio‐Economic Panel data from 2001 to 2009 and discrete‐time hazard models. The effect of care on the retirement decision is indeed much higher than its effect on the labor or working hours of middle‐aged individuals. Women are affected to a larger extent but the retirement decision of men also reacts to their caregiving obligations.     

金融信息风险决策中的熵应用

由于金融信息决策问题的环境存在许多不确定因素,因此就有风险型决策。对风险型决策采用的是概率统计方法,所依据的是期望值准则。然而,复杂的现实生活不断向我们提出这样的问题:依据期望值准则所作出的决策,其不确定性的程度到底有多大?能否寻找到不确定性程度较低的决策方法?本文通过对熵的引入与应用,提出了金融信息风险决策中产生高熵的几个主要因素,同时给出了决策中使系统不确定性的度量——熵变小的方法,使信息管理决策中的熵思想得到广泛的应用。     

Convenience,Price, Product

Abstract

This study examines the factors motivating consumers' purchases of specialty food and beverage products via the Internet. While convenience is often cited as a motivating factor, price and product selection have also been identified. This study considered convenience in terms of time, space, and effort. It also identifies several specific sub-categories for price and products. Among respondents who had made a recent online purchase, convenience-related issues were most frequently cited as being relevant to the purchase decision. Product-related factors were important for nearly one-third of the respondents. Price was of relatively little importance.     

Exploring the core factors of online purchase decisions by building an E-Commerce network evolution model

With the continuous development of the Internet and information technology, online shopping has become a popular purchase mode. The in-depth analysis of consumer decision-making in online shopping is an important issue. Our purpose is to study how the factors of the shopping web pages corporately affect online purchase decisions and determine which are the core factors that affect consumer purchase decisions. We screen the influencing factors on the shopping webpage and deploy e-commerce network evolution based on various weight combinations of these factors to generate sales distributions of online products. By comparing these simulated sales distributions to the real data, the optimal weight of each factor is obtained. The results show that sales volume and the number of high-quality negative comments are the most important factors influencing consumers' decision-making, the number of comments and the number of comments with pictures are relatively minor factors, store type and video presentation of the products have the least impact. The optimal simulated sales distribution is very close to the real case and verifies that the introduced network evolution technology is applicable. The proposed model can be used as a uniform evaluation platform for correlational study, which is an important link in the purchase research chain.     

The effect of shopping goals and in-store mobile device use on purchase outcomes in brick-and-mortar stores

The present study examines the effect of using a mobile device on search and evaluation by a shopper in a brick-and-mortar store. A conceptual model that proposes inter-relationships between shopping goals, the amount and type of in-store mobile device use, and purchase outcomes is developed. Data from a national quota sample of 1034 mobile shoppers is used to test hypotheses derived from the proposed model. The findings provide several new insights into the impact of in-store mobile device use on the consumer decision journey in a brick-and-mortar store. Depending upon the shopping goals of the consumer, the use of a mobile device by shoppers in a brick-and-mortar store can either decrease or increase search, lead to more deferred purchases or in-store-now purchases, and more online or physical store purchases. The study is among the first to model the pathway to purchase for mobile device assisted shoppers in brick-and-mortar stores.     

Uniform or spatially differentiated? Pricing Strategies for Information Goods under simultaneous and sequential decision-making in multi-market context

Product pricing has been one of the central issues in the field of marketing and consumer services for managers and researchers alike. However, pricing of information goods has not been paid much attention in literature. For information goods the marginal costs of production and transportation of information goods (online movies, video games, etc.) is almost zero. Hence, the pricing decisions need to be thought of purely in competitive profit maximizing terms. This paper proposes mechanisms for managers to evaluate and base their pricing decisions on rational frameworks that takes into account various situations when they enter a new market and when they are incumbent in a new market. This paper addresses the research gap of spatially differentiated pricing strategy for information goods that has not been studied in literature so far. We create stylized theoretical models under both, sequential and simultaneous decision-making conditions. We determine the equilibrium price and the equilibrium profit for the two firms for each of the four possible scenarios based on their pricing strategies. Our analysis reveals that the dominance of one pricing strategy over the other depends on product differentiation factor capturing joint effect of the product substitutability and consumer's price sensitivity under sequential decision making and the market size along with consumer's price sensitivity for simultaneous decision making. As an extension, we propose a generalized model demonstrating the uniform and spatially differentiated pricing strategies of the firms under simultaneous and sequential selection for multiple domestic and international markets.     

基于期权定价理论的风险投资决策

项目评价的传统方法———净现值(NPV)法在应用于风险投资项目时,由于低估了投资价值,往往会使得投资者失去一些有价值的投资机会。结合风险投资的特性,将期权定价理论应用于风险投资决策中,并建立连续及离散两种状态下的决策模型