A Bayesian approach for more reliable tail risk forecasts

This paper demonstrates that existing quantile regression models used for jointly forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are sensitive to initial conditions. Given the importance of these measures in financial systems, this sensitivity is a critical issue. A new Bayesian quantile regression approach is proposed for estimating joint VaR and ES models. By treating the initial values as unknown parameters, sensitivity issues can be dealt with. Furthermore, new additive-type models are developed for the ES component that are more robust to initial conditions. A novel approach using the open-faced sandwich (OFS) method is proposed which improves uncertainty quantification in risk forecasts. Simulation and empirical results highlight the improvements in risk forecasts ensuing from the proposed methods.     

Subjective recursive expected utility

We axiomatize a subjective version of the recursive expected utility model. This development extends the seminal results of Kreps and Porteus (Econometrica 46:185–200 (1978)) to a subjective framework and provides foundations that are easy to relate to axioms familiar from timeless models of decision making under uncertainty. Our analysis also clarifies what is needed in going from a represention that applies within a single filtration to an across filtration representation.Part of this research was conducted when Ozdenoren visited MEDS in Fall 2003. We thank Tapas Kundu, Costis Skiadas, Jean-Marc Tallon and Tan Wang for helpful discussions and also thank audiences at Koc University, Northwestern University, the CERMSEM conference “ Mathematical Models in Decision Theory” at Universite Paris I, and the FUR XI conference on foundations and applications of utility, risk and decision theory     

中国产业结构变迁与经济增长的实证分析

本文对我国1978～2002年产业结构变化状况和产业结构变化趋势进行定量分析,考察产业结构变动引起各产业部门对经济增长的贡献和作用的相应变化.实证检验表明,这一时期我国产业结构变动基本符合工业化发展的演变规律,但从我国经济发展的要求看,产业结构转换仍滞后于总量增长的要求;进一步优化产业结构,需要着力解决"三农"问题、提升企业的国际竞争力、加快发展第三产业.     

不良贷款约束下的中国银行业全要素生产率增长研究

本文运用共同边界Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数测度了2004—2009年中国27家商业银行在不良贷款约束下的全要素生产率增长及其成分,并对影响全要素生产率增长的宏观经济因素进行了实证分析。本文的主要结论有:在表示偏离共同边界的技术落差比率方面,国有商业银行呈"V"型,股份制商业银行较平稳,城市商业银行逐步上升;总体上,中国银行业的全要素生产率是进步的,纯技术进步是推动全要素生产率进步的主要动力,纯技术效率变化和规模效率变化进步都不明显,技术规模变化显示中国银行业趋向CRS边界;股份制商业银行的纯技术赶超最优,而潜在技术相对变动方面表现较弱;外资银行进入和固定资产投资增加对银行全要素生产率提高有推动作用。     

无形资产价值的不确定性及管理策略

无形资产对企业产品创新及市场占有发挥着越来越重要的作用,对企业价值的影响也日益重要,对无形资产区别于有形资产特性的认识,有利于资产管理。本文分析了无形资产价值不确定性特性以及形成的原因,并结合无形资产特点,讨论无形资产价值管理的优化的策略。     

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY: ROBUST RULES IN MONETARY POLICY

We argue that in seeking to insure against model uncertainty, monetary policy makers are often ready to trade ex post performance for greater certainty in the outcome. They thus look for rules that although not optimal ex post, have certain properties that qualify them as robust. We apply first, Gul's approach of ‘disappointment’ aversion to describe policy makers' aversion to uncertainty and then define the properties the notion of ‘robustness’ entails. With these two tools we then link the desirability of such robust rules to the degree of policy makers' aversion to uncertainty. We thus show that provided such robust rules exist, a larger degree of disappointment aversion leads to a greater emphasis on robustness in policy implementation.     

Incentive Regulation of Prices When Costs are Sunk

We present a model featuring irreversible investment, economies of scale, uncertain future demand and capital prices, and a regulator who sets the firm’s output price according to the cost structure of a hypothetical replacement firm. We show that a replacement firm has a fundamental cost advantage over the regulated firm: it can better exploit the economies of scale because it has not had to confront the historical uncertainties faced by the regulated firm. We show that setting prices so low that a replacement firm is just willing to participate is insufficient to allow the regulated firm to expect to break even whenever it has to invest. Thus, unless the regulator is willing to incur costly monitoring to ensure the firm invests, revenue must be allowed in excess of that required for a replacement firm to participate. This contrasts with much of the existing literature, which argues that the market value of a regulated firm should equal the cost of replacing its existing assets. We also obtain a closed-form solution for the regulated firm’s output price when this price is set at discrete intervals. In contrast to rate of return regulation, we find that resetting the regulated price more frequently can increase the risk faced by the firm’s owners, and that this is reflected in a higher output price and a higher weighted-average cost of capital.     

非农投资总量、结构和要素替代对就业的影响

将影响非农产业就业量的增长因素分解为:投资总量效应、结构变化效应和要素替代效应;投资总量的增长是拉动非农就业增长的主要力量,投资的行业结构变化效应以及要素替代效应导致了非农就业的下降。     

财务会计信息与公司治理

财务会计系统不但给公司控制机制提供直接的财务信息,而且还提供股票价格中反映的所有间接信息。会计治理研究中的一个基本目标是为财务会计提供的信息,在多大程度上减缓由所有权和经营权两权分离所带来的代理问题,以及减少信息不对称问题提供证据。本文着重探讨财务会计信息在公司治理机制中的作用,公司治理机制对财务会计信息反作用的互动研究,并提出了公司治理的对策。     

Export Composition and Manufacturing Employment in the US during the Economic Downturn of 1991-92

This paper examines the effect that export composition had upon manufacturing employment in the US during the 1991 recession. Although it takes, on average, approximately $66 000 in exports to create one job, the exact gains in terms of total employment depend upon the labour-intensity of the products being exported. Foreign sales by the chemical and textile industries result in a far greater increase in employment than exports by the petroleum refining or steel industries. This analysis estimates the employment effects of manufacturing exports over the 1989-95 period, utilizing an input-output model to capture both direct and indirect effects. The results demonstrate that export composition has, at times, both strengthened and reduced demand for labour. Consequently, if job-creation is a national goal, it may be in the interests of the US to promote exports from sectors that are labour-using.