我国行政听证主持人制度研究

在行政听证中，如果主持人不能公正和独立地指挥整个听证过程，那么听证的公正性将得不到保障。以我国行政听证主持人制度为对象，分析其存在的主要问题，借鉴吸收国内外法制实践经验，完善中国行政听证主持人制度。     

A Bayesian approach for more reliable tail risk forecasts

This paper demonstrates that existing quantile regression models used for jointly forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are sensitive to initial conditions. Given the importance of these measures in financial systems, this sensitivity is a critical issue. A new Bayesian quantile regression approach is proposed for estimating joint VaR and ES models. By treating the initial values as unknown parameters, sensitivity issues can be dealt with. Furthermore, new additive-type models are developed for the ES component that are more robust to initial conditions. A novel approach using the open-faced sandwich (OFS) method is proposed which improves uncertainty quantification in risk forecasts. Simulation and empirical results highlight the improvements in risk forecasts ensuing from the proposed methods.     

Subjective recursive expected utility

We axiomatize a subjective version of the recursive expected utility model. This development extends the seminal results of Kreps and Porteus (Econometrica 46:185–200 (1978)) to a subjective framework and provides foundations that are easy to relate to axioms familiar from timeless models of decision making under uncertainty. Our analysis also clarifies what is needed in going from a represention that applies within a single filtration to an across filtration representation.Part of this research was conducted when Ozdenoren visited MEDS in Fall 2003. We thank Tapas Kundu, Costis Skiadas, Jean-Marc Tallon and Tan Wang for helpful discussions and also thank audiences at Koc University, Northwestern University, the CERMSEM conference “ Mathematical Models in Decision Theory” at Universite Paris I, and the FUR XI conference on foundations and applications of utility, risk and decision theory     

Search, common knowledge, and competition

This paper analyzes the effects of buyer search costs and seller private and common knowledge on seller competition. It shows that lack of common knowledge results in the equilibrium price continuously decreasing to the perfectly competitive one as buyer search costs for price decrease from positive for all buyers to zero for all buyers, even if each market agent's uncertainty (in the private knowledge) is small. At the same time, if the uncertainty of each seller about buyer valuations is small, the effects of a small change in the search costs or of information structure on pricing may be large (but continuous).     

无形资产价值的不确定性及管理策略

无形资产对企业产品创新及市场占有发挥着越来越重要的作用,对企业价值的影响也日益重要,对无形资产区别于有形资产特性的认识,有利于资产管理。本文分析了无形资产价值不确定性特性以及形成的原因,并结合无形资产特点,讨论无形资产价值管理的优化的策略。     

An empirical investigation of the roles of prior knowledge and learning activities in technology transfer

This study analyzes 120 university–industry technology transfer projects. A significant positive relationship was found between the learning activities performed by the firm during the development and implementation stages of the technology transfer project and the benefits to that firm from the project. In contrast, prior knowledge of the firm about the existing technology was found to have only a marginal contribution to the project benefits. However, further exploratory analysis based on high and low levels of technical and organizational uncertainty revealed more provocative relationships.     

Contests with spying: A comment

The subject of the following comment is a paper by Baik and Shogren which has been published in this journal (Vol. 11, No. 3 (1995) pp. 441–451). In their game-theoretic model, Baik and Shogren connect the informational states of the agents in a way which leads to inconsistencies.     

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY: ROBUST RULES IN MONETARY POLICY

We argue that in seeking to insure against model uncertainty, monetary policy makers are often ready to trade ex post performance for greater certainty in the outcome. They thus look for rules that although not optimal ex post, have certain properties that qualify them as robust. We apply first, Gul's approach of ‘disappointment’ aversion to describe policy makers' aversion to uncertainty and then define the properties the notion of ‘robustness’ entails. With these two tools we then link the desirability of such robust rules to the degree of policy makers' aversion to uncertainty. We thus show that provided such robust rules exist, a larger degree of disappointment aversion leads to a greater emphasis on robustness in policy implementation.     

Incentive Regulation of Prices When Costs are Sunk

We present a model featuring irreversible investment, economies of scale, uncertain future demand and capital prices, and a regulator who sets the firm’s output price according to the cost structure of a hypothetical replacement firm. We show that a replacement firm has a fundamental cost advantage over the regulated firm: it can better exploit the economies of scale because it has not had to confront the historical uncertainties faced by the regulated firm. We show that setting prices so low that a replacement firm is just willing to participate is insufficient to allow the regulated firm to expect to break even whenever it has to invest. Thus, unless the regulator is willing to incur costly monitoring to ensure the firm invests, revenue must be allowed in excess of that required for a replacement firm to participate. This contrasts with much of the existing literature, which argues that the market value of a regulated firm should equal the cost of replacing its existing assets. We also obtain a closed-form solution for the regulated firm’s output price when this price is set at discrete intervals. In contrast to rate of return regulation, we find that resetting the regulated price more frequently can increase the risk faced by the firm’s owners, and that this is reflected in a higher output price and a higher weighted-average cost of capital.     

财务会计信息与公司治理

财务会计系统不但给公司控制机制提供直接的财务信息,而且还提供股票价格中反映的所有间接信息。会计治理研究中的一个基本目标是为财务会计提供的信息,在多大程度上减缓由所有权和经营权两权分离所带来的代理问题,以及减少信息不对称问题提供证据。本文着重探讨财务会计信息在公司治理机制中的作用,公司治理机制对财务会计信息反作用的互动研究,并提出了公司治理的对策。