Enhancing capacity planning through forecasting: An integrated tool for maintenance of complex product systems

Despite the extensive amount of data generated and stored during the maintenance capacity planning process, Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) organizations have yet to explore their full potential in forecasting the required capacity to face future and unprecedented maintenance interventions. This paper explores the integration of time series forecasting capabilities in a tool for maintenance capacity planning of complex product systems (CoPS), intended to value data that is routinely generated and stored, but often disregarded by MROs. State space formulations with multiplicative errors for the simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt’s linear method (HLM), additive Holt-Winters (AHW), and multiplicative Holt-Winters (MHW) are assessed using real data, comprised of 171 maintenance projects collected from a major Portuguese aircraft MRO. A state space formulation of the MHW, selected using the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc), is integrated in a Decision Support System (DSS) for capacity planning with probabilistic inference capabilities and used to forecast the workload probability distribution of a future and unprecedent maintenance intervention. The developed tool is validated by comparing forecasted values with workloads of a particular maintenance intervention and with a model simulating current forecasting practices employed by MROs.     

Preservation and exogenous uncertain future preferences

Summary. We extend the Beltratti, Chichilnisky and Heal's (1993) and (1998) continuous-time stochastic dynamic framework to analyze the optimal depletion of an asset whose consumption is irreversible, in the face of uncertainty about future preferences. Their model is rather general and so the results are general qualitative theorems. We show that in some interesting cases it is possible to solve their model analytically. The cases involve constant elasticity utility functions and the assumption of a Poisson process for the evolution of preferences. Received: September 13, 1999; revised version: November 23, 1999     

A strategic environmental assessment method for agricultural policy in the UK

There are a number of significant environmental impacts that arise from agricultural practices that may be influenced by policy. A Strategic Environmental Assessment Method (SEAM) is described which aims to assess the environmental impacts of agricultural policy and aid the development of more sustainable policy formulation. The method addresses the issues of selecting appropriate performance criteria and measurements, and makes use of effect-damage functions and targets to determine the significance of potential impacts in relation to sustainability. A set of profiles is produced, describing the environmental performance of a specific policy. A confidence assessment system (CAS) is also described which provides details about the quality of the assessment and areas of uncertainty. SEAM provides information about impacts in simple format that can be easily used in decision making. It can identify environmental trade-offs and provides a holistic view that is essential when making decisions that affect the environment.     

跨国公司转让定价避税与反避税研究

转让定价是跨国公司实施的最主要的转移利润的手法。随着越来越多的跨国公司将在中国设立并发展,对于部分跨国公司通过国际转让定价对我国税基造成的损害,更应该引起重视。从税务当局的角度研究转让定价与反避税问题,成为税收研究和企业管理的一个重要课题。     

Annual Meeting of the Catholic Economic Association

This paper attempts to demonstrate that Keynes's practical writings on the crisis in the Lancashire cotton spinning industry in the 1920s were consistent with the 1930s theoretical conceptualisation of user costs in the General Theory. It is suggested that the key (common) link between these analyses is Keynes's concern with how uncertainty is distributed, in specific historical circumstances, between institutions at the levels of the firm, industry, the industry-financial institution interface, and the local and global economies. It is this concern which still has important, if not more, research and policy relevance today.     

Uncertainty and entry deterrence

Summary. We study a model where capacity installation by an incumbent firm serves to deter others from entering the industry. We argue that uncertainty about demand or costs forces the incumbent to choose a higher capacity level than it would under certainty. This higher level diminishes the attractiveness of deterrence (Proposition 1) and, therefore, the range of parameter values for which deterrence occurs (Proposition 2). Received: July 10, 1997; revised version: November 21, 1997     

Technology,science and American innovation

This article offers for consideration four propositions about business, government, and innovation in the post-World War Two United States, points which may have a wider resonance as well. They concern the long term role of continuous innovation, technology–science relationships, state-led problem setting for innovation, and the ‘permanent uncertainties’ that arise from Cold War-era technological advance. Each of these has implications for the practice of business history, for conceptualizing innovation, and for our understanding of post-war science–technology trajectories.     

税收撤销权的运行环境分析

税收撤销权制度是从民法上移植而来的一项法律制度，但颁布以来一直没有得到很好的执行。存在的问题主要在于制度规定不够明晰以及社会环境与税收撤销权制度的契合度不高两个方面，制度的改进也应从这两个方面进行。     

Determinants of transfer pricing aggressiveness: Empirical evidence from Australian firms

This study examines the major determinants of transfer pricing aggressiveness. Based on a hand-collected sample of 183 publicly-listed Australian firms for the 2009 year, our regression results show that firm size, profitability, leverage, intangible assets, and multinationality are significantly positively associated with transfer pricing aggressiveness after controlling for industry-sector effects. Our additional regression results also indicate that firms augment their transfer pricing aggressiveness through the joint effects of intangible assets and multinationality.     

化解高校贷款风险的对策

我国高校贷款行为缘于政府政策引导、国家投入不足、评估迫使,应通过树立财务风险意识、强化政府财政投入责任、加强贷款项目资金管理、建立偿债基金、运用市场机制筹集资金、教育捐赠、增加销售与服务收入等方式来化解。