一款基于凌阳61单片机的汽车弯道会车雷达设计

介绍了一款3cm微波汽车弯道会车雷达的设计方案。该雷达以凌阳61单片机为核心，充分利用凌阳61单片机的DSP处理功能和语音处理功能。该装置安装在行驶的汽车上，使行驶的汽车在弯道处能自动探测出前方行驶车辆，有效避免汽车出现会车险情。该装置结构简单，灵敏度高，适用于行驶在山区公路的各种汽车。     

Confidence intervals: An empirical investigation of the series in the M-competition

This paper empirically evaluates the uncertainty of forecasts. It does so using the 1001 series of the M-Competition. The study indicates that although, in model fitting the percentage of observations outside the confidence intervals is close to that postulated theoretically, this is not true for forecasting. In the latter case the percentage of observations outside the confidence intervals is much higher than that postulated theoretically. This is so for the great majority of series, forecasting horizonts, and methods. In addition to evaluating the extent of uncertainty, we provide tables to help users to construct more realistic confidence intervals for their forecasts.     

竞合关系、组织惯例更新与突破式创新——环境不确定性的调节作用

突破式创新是创新驱动发展的重要形式，而以竞合关系促进协同创新已成为企业常态。基于动态能力理论与资源基础理论，探讨竞合关系、组织惯例更新和环境不确定性对突破式创新的交互作用机制。通过对298家企业问卷调研数据的分析，结果表明：竞争与合作均对突破式创新产生积极影响，竞合平衡对突破式创新产生消极影响；组织惯例更新分别在合作、竞合平衡与突破式创新关系中起中介作用；技术不确定性分别调节竞争、合作与突破式创新关系，市场不确定性分别调节合作、竞合平衡与突破式创新关系。该结论丰富了企业竞合与突破式创新关系研究，为企业管理利用竞合关系促进突破式创新提供了理论参考。     

混合双寡头模型下的R&D竞争:不确定性和模仿视角

通过引入模仿参数δ来衡量R&D容易被模仿的程度,对Joanna Poya-go-Theotoky(1998)的研究进行了拓展,验证了其基本结论的稳健性。此外,通过引入二次R&D成本函数,研究发现,混合双寡头与私人双寡头情况下的社会福利的比较是不确定的,除了依赖创新规模P以外,还取决于模仿参数d,即——(1)对于任意的d,创新规模越大,私人双寡头越倾向于占优混合双寡头,混合双寡头仅在创新规模较小的时候可能优于私人双寡头;(2)对于创新规模比较小的R&D,只有同时具备较容易的模仿程度,混合双寡头才会优于私人双寡头;(3)在不完全模仿(d≠1)的情况下,在R&D越来越容易被模仿的过程中,利率越高(低),私人双寡头优于混合双寡头的最低P值先上升(下降)后下降(上升)。     

Scenarios of the organic food market in Europe

Scenario analysis is a qualitative tool for strategic policy analysis that enables researchers and policymakers to support decision making, and a systemic analysis of the main determinants of a business or sector. In this study, a scenario analysis is developed regarding the future development of the market of organic food products in Europe. The scenario follows a participatory approach, exploiting potential interactions among the relevant driving forces, as selected by experts. Network analysis is used to identify the roles of driving forces in the different scenarios, and the results are discussed in comparison with the main findings from existing scenarios on the future development of the organic sector.     

Early adoption,experience, and farm performance of GM corn seeds

The current article explores the characteristics that distinguish early from late adopters of GM corn and measures the productivity impacts of early adoption, for a sample of farmers in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The results of the adoption analysis confirm that size, education as well as specialization are positively correlated with early adoption. In addition, these results also show that farms that are mostly worked by family labor but hire some off‐farm labor are more likely to adopt GM seeds earlier in the diffusion process. The productivity analysis demonstrates the superiority of stacked varieties. At the same time, we find no evidence of a direct impact of experience on yields. Given the previously documented impact of early adoption on the use of stacked varieties, we conclude that experience plays a role through the adoption of these new technologies but does not play a role in allowing the producer to use the technology more efficiently, once it has been adopted.     

Entrepreneurial risk,investment, and innovation

I estimate the effect of uncertainty on risky innovation using a panel of 11,417 manufacturing firms. I find that an increase in uncertainty has a large negative effect on the risky innovation of entrepreneurial firms, while it does not have any significant impact on other firms. This negative effect is stronger for the less diversified entrepreneurial firms in the sample. The estimation results are consistent with the innovation dynamics generated in a model in which entrepreneurs are risk averse and cannot diversify the risk of their business.     

汇率的不确定性、投资区位选择与公司内贸易

本文通过建立投资国一受资国一国际市场的三国框架,分三种投资区位的国际生产模式,就汇率冲击对垂直型FDI的区位选择和公司内贸易的影响进行分析。研究表明：（1）当区位成本优势不能抵消汇率不确定性导致的损失时,跨国企业将会调整投资区位决策,考虑撤资回母国;（2）当汇率相对波动幅度处于某一范围时,跨国企业具有较强烈的倾向将投资从原东道国转移到其引资竞争国;（3）汇率不确定性对出口价格的传导效应,具有不完全性特点。出口价格的汇率波动风险弹性取决于国际市场的外部竞争度以及子公司组装成本占国际市场该产品价格的比重;（4）汇率波动风险对公司内贸易余额的传导程度具有不确定性。随着汇率风险程度的逐步加大,其对公司内贸易余额的影响作用渐强,逐步从弱弹性转化为较强弹性的传导。     

“好”的不确定性、“坏”的不确定性与股票市场定价——基于中国股市高频数据分析

不确定性并不是都是“坏”的,“好”的不确定性也同样存在。本文采用Barndorff-Nielsen et al.(2010)提出的已实现半方差作为股票市场“好”的不确定性和“坏”的不确定性的代理指标,并在此基础上构建了相对符号变差(RSV),分析RSV对中国股市定价的影响。基于2007-2017年中国A股5分钟高频数据的实证研究发现:(1)与理论解释相一致,RSV与股票收益之间呈现负相关关系。无论是基于单变量分组、双变量分组还是公司层面的截面回归,这种影响在经济上和统计上都显著。(2)RSV是独立于已实现偏度的一个重要定价因子,且RSV对股票的定价能力强于已实现偏度的定价能力。(3)RSV对中国股市的影响是状态依存的,相对于经济景气程度高的状态,在经济景气程度低的状态下RSV定价影响更大。(4)基于RSV构建的投资组合的表现明显优于市场超额收益率组合、SMB组合和HML组合的表现。     

Dynamics of the Market for Corporate Tax‐Avoidance Advice*

This paper addresses the debate over aggressive tax‐planning models and analyzes the role of tax consultants. It focuses on the dynamic interaction between innovation and imitation of aggressive tax‐planning products and governmental tax regulation, and it highlights the importance of the length of regulatory lag in comparison with the time it takes the tax‐consulting industry to imitate newly innovated tax‐avoidance products. It reveals an alignment of interests between highly innovative tax‐consulting firms and the governmental tax legislator/regulator. The conclusions are also relevant for the policy debate on mandatory disclosure rules about aggressive tax‐planning models.