Tax avoidance and ex ante cost of capital

This study examines the association between tax avoidance and ex ante cost of equity capital. Based on prior research, we develop two proxies for investors’ expectations of tax avoidance and explore whether deviations from those expectations result in higher ex ante cost of equity capital. We find that the ex ante cost of equity capital increases with tax avoidance that is either below or above investor expectations and that the increase is larger for tax avoidance that exceeds investors’ expectations. We then examine whether firms that alter their future tax avoidance exhibit a lowering of their ex ante cost of equity capital and find that tax avoidance decreases (increases) from the prior year for firms that were above (below) investors’ expectations in the prior year. These results are consistent with the trade‐off suggested by the Scholes and Wolfson framework and reinforce the notion that balancing tax benefits and non‐tax costs is an important feature of firms’ tax planning.     

股权性质、环境不确定性与技术资本配置效率

技术转化为资本，资本创造价值已经成为共识，技术资本在不同公司创造价值的作用程度不同，根源是技术资本配置效率问题。选取沪深两市2008-2013年间制造业上市公司为样本，检验了基于不同股权性质的公司环境不确定性对企业技术资本配置效率和价值的影响，研究结果表明：①企业环境不确定性程度越高，技术资本配置效率越低，并且技术资本配置偏离度在国有公司中表现为配置过度，在非国有公司表现为配置不足；②在股权性质为国有的公司中，由环境不确定性引发的技术资本配置偏离将降低企业价值，在非国有控股公司中，由环境不确定性导致的技术资本配置偏离将增加企业价值。     

Emptying the future: On the environmental politics of anticipation

Anticipation may be seen as structured by images and representations, an approach that has informed recent work in science and technology studies on the sociology of expectations. But anticipation, as a capacity or characteristic, is not solely manifested in the form of representations, even where such representations of the ‘not yet’ are performative in nature. It also comprises material capacities, technological, biophysical and affective in nature. The politics of anticipation is shaped by how these symbolic and material capacities, and the forms of agency they make possible, are distributed. As anticipation is an environmentally distributed capacity, it is suggested that the politics of anticipation is also an environmental politics. A conceptual framework for analysing anticipation as comprised of environmental capabilities is introduced, and fleshed out using a case study of energy infrastructure planning from the UK. Key elements of this framework include the concepts of anticipatory assemblages and future horizons or ‘styles’ of anticipation. Working through the case study as an empirical example of a conflict concerning the politics of anticipation and of ‘environments’, it is demonstrated how the relationships between styles of anticipation are materially constitutive of such conflicts.     

Personal service companies and the public sector

Off-payroll workers in the UK, including personal service companies (PSCs), engaged by the public sector have been giving ‘assurance’ of their tax position to departments in the sector since 2012. Departments must be satisfied with the assurance. For PSCs this requires awareness of complex tax legislation (IR35), which is aimed at preventing tax avoidance. Costs may be incurred in attaining the necessary knowledge. This may bring into question costs incurred in protecting tax revenue. No similar obligation exists in the private sector.     

Why did the equity home bias fall during the financial panic of 2008?

Investors tend to put most of their wealth in local stocks; theories of portfolio choice and uncertainty aversion jointly predict that this home bias should increase during a financial crisis. Yet, using a sample of 45 countries, I document that the equity home bias fell during the financial panic of 2008. Exploiting bilateral stock holdings, I find that investors actively increased their home bias, but large valuation changes subsumed these trades. Across countries, the change in home bias is consistent with partial portfolio rebalancing and increased information asymmetries during the crisis.     

变压器绕组温升试验及其不确定度分析

本文介绍了变压器正常加载时的温升试验过程和相关事项，并对试验数据进行变压器温升的不确定度分析。     

Predicting Consumer Avoidance of Native Advertising on Social Networking Sites: A Survey of Facebook Users

Abstract

As a result of constant efforts to improve consumers’ online advertising experiences, native advertising has started to gain popularity on social networking sites (SNSs). This survey study examined antecedents of avoidance of native advertising on SNSs and the moderating role of consumer skepticism toward native advertising. Our findings suggest perceived intrusiveness and perceived informative and entertainment advertising value as major antecedents of consumer advertising avoidance. Additionally, the number of brands that consumers are following on SNSs and negative communication among peers on SNSs were found to be factors affecting native advertising avoidance. Finally, consumer skepticism toward native advertising was found to be an important moderating variable in the mechanism of advertising avoidance on SNSs.     

Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage

We analyze the relationship between forecaster disagreement and macroeconomic uncertainty in the Euro area using data from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1999Q1–2018Q4 and find that disagreement is generally a poor proxy for uncertainty. However, the strength of this link varies with the dispersion statistic employed, the choice of either the point forecasts or the histogram means for calculating disagreement, the outcome variable considered and the forecast horizon. In contrast, distributional assumptions do not appear to be very influential. The relationship is weaker in subsamples before and after the outbreak of the Great Recession. Accounting for the forecasters’ entry to and exit from the survey has little impact on the results. We also show that survey-based uncertainty is associated with overall policy uncertainty, whereas forecaster disagreement is related more closely to the expected fluctuations on financial markets.     

CORPORATE TAX AVOIDANCE: A LITERATURE REVIEW AND RESEARCH AGENDA

Tax avoidance can range from reduction of the corporate tax burden by legitimate use of tax rules to violation of tax laws. In this paper, we endeavor to synthesize the major findings of tax avoidance research from the accounting and finance literatures over the past ten years. We consider theoretical developments and the related empirical findings about the interconnected issues of measuring tax avoidance, and the possible causes and outcomes of corporate tax avoidance. We present some ideas for further research to examine underexplored topics regarding tax avoidance.     

Evaluating quantile forecasts in the M5 uncertainty competition

Probabilistic forecasts are necessary for robust decisions in the face of uncertainty. The M5 Uncertainty competition required participating teams to forecast nine quantiles for unit sales of various products at various aggregation levels and for different time horizons. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of the quantile forecasts at different aggregation levels and at different quantile levels. We contrast this with some theoretical predictions, and discuss potential implications and promising future research directions for the practice of probabilistic forecasting.